Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
New Hampshire has an Open Primary... (Original Post) brooklynite Dec 2019 OP
Probably be a boost for Bernie; republicans don't want to run against Biden LongtimeAZDem Dec 2019 #1
Open primaries allow for malicious interference by the opposing party. NurseJackie Dec 2019 #3
Except of course that it hasn't ever worked and there are much Voltaire2 Dec 2019 #6
Lester Maddox NurseJackie Dec 2019 #7
which article never states that the republican crossover vote actually changed the outcome. Voltaire2 Dec 2019 #8
It left the Democrats with a shitty racist candidate... NurseJackie Dec 2019 #9
Your link did not state that crossover voting changed the outcome. Voltaire2 Dec 2019 #10
You try. NurseJackie Dec 2019 #11
Lulzd. Voltaire2 Dec 2019 #16
New Hampshire does not have an open primary. Voltaire2 Dec 2019 #2
THIS. bearsfootball516 Dec 2019 #5
I remember when primary exit polls in two WV precincts Hortensis Dec 2019 #12
WV boomer_wv Dec 2019 #13
Right, sorry. It's been a while. Lots of conservative Dems Hortensis Dec 2019 #14
Sure. boomer_wv Dec 2019 #15
Good history. The point I was making was those Sanders Hortensis Dec 2019 #17
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2019 #4
 

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)
1. Probably be a boost for Bernie; republicans don't want to run against Biden
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 09:24 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
3. Open primaries allow for malicious interference by the opposing party.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 09:45 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(13,027 posts)
6. Except of course that it hasn't ever worked and there are much
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 05:10 PM
Dec 2019

more effective ways to cheat.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Voltaire2

(13,027 posts)
8. which article never states that the republican crossover vote actually changed the outcome.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 05:19 PM
Dec 2019

But keep searching you might find something somewhere.

You could find this for example:


7 Conclusion of Individual Analysis

We have demonstrated that open primaries do not lead to a substantively large
increase in crossover voting over closed primaries. And we have argued that
the existing literature on voter behavior suggests that any crossover voting that
occurs will be motivated by voters' desire to vote for their rst-choice candidate, or, to a lesser extent, to avoid wasting their vote. Voters will simply not
have the information necessary to engage in raiding behavior in primaries. We
nd that our empirical analysis of the 1988 Super Tuesday primary provides
overwhelming evidence to support this claim. By carefully examining the voters' evaluations of the available candidates, and the voters' perceptions of the
candidates' chances of winning both the primary and general election, we have
been able to demonstrate that fewer than 2% of voters in the primary engaged
in raiding behavior.

It is our view that the blanket primary will not lead to large amounts of
strategic behavior by voters. The possibility of strategic behavior in a primary
is signicantly dierent than in multi-candidate general elections.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper/alvar99b.pdf
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
9. It left the Democrats with a shitty racist candidate...
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 05:24 PM
Dec 2019

... I guess I just have higher standards. But keep making excuses for outsiders and other non-Democrats to mess with party business.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(13,027 posts)
10. Your link did not state that crossover voting changed the outcome.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 05:25 PM
Dec 2019

Try reading it again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Voltaire2

(13,027 posts)
2. New Hampshire does not have an open primary.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 09:39 AM
Dec 2019

Registered Republicans cannot vote in the Democratic primary. Unaffiliated voters can register for a party at the poll and vote in that primary. A registered voter cannot switch registration after the candidate filing period starts, which was back in October.

https://sos.nh.gov/VotePartyPrimFAQ.aspx

Other than that, there is no evidence that any organized crossover vote effort anywhere in the US has had any effect on the outcome of any presidential primary.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
5. THIS.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 09:55 AM
Dec 2019

Even if NH did have open primaries, it would take a pretty incredible organized effort to make any kind of impact, and 99 percent of Republicans just wouldn't care enough to purposely take a Democratic ballot and vote for someone they felt like is the weaker candidate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
12. I remember when primary exit polls in two WV precincts
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 06:25 PM
Dec 2019

revealed that 44% and either 37% or 39% of the voters for Sanders laughed (often literally) at the question of whether they would vote for Sanders if he won the nomination. Of course this is an extreme example, but conservative and other hostile crossover voting was happening in every state where it was possible.

You're right in that these malicious spoiler votes didn't manage to elect a weaker candidate over Hillary, but they did affect the vote totals big time and suggest that Sanders had far more support among Democrats than he did.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
13. WV
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 08:31 PM
Dec 2019

Doesnt have an open primary either. Those were people who were registered democrats for likely decades who just hated Clinton.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
14. Right, sorry. It's been a while. Lots of conservative Dems
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 10:00 PM
Dec 2019

in WV. Obviously. Of course, this shows how massive the spoiler effect can be even in states with closed primaries.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
15. Sure.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 01:35 AM
Dec 2019

But these are also people who have voted in the democratic primaries for 30 or 40 years, not a concerted effort to cross over and strategically try to spoil it.

Some of them might have laughed, but I'm absolutely sure Sanders would have outperformed Clinton in a WV general election. His version of populism would have played better here than Clinton strategy of coming and telling a mining town that she was going to shut down the mines.

As an example, there were likely few places where Obama was less popular in 2012 than WV. 40% of the primary vote went to a guy who was literally in prison on the day of the vote, pulling a long stretch for sending postcards demanding money from people and threatening to kill them if they didn't send it. However, Obama still outperformed Clinton by around 10 points in WV between the two general elections.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
17. Good history. The point I was making was those Sanders
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 08:00 AM
Dec 2019

voters were almost all conservative Dems who fully intended to continue their long tradition of voting for the Republican candidate in the GE. Both Sanders and Trump are populist leaders vying for the same voters, and no doubt you're right that Sanders had some appeal for some of these conservatives, but apparently they were identifying more as Hill haters to the exit pollsters.

"West Virginia is the northernmost Southern state and the southernmost Northern state."

I'd forgotten that loon entirely. I looked up Keith Judd but found nothing since 2016, including no contact info on Vote Smart.

Maybe the RNC had a little talk with him. I read the Repubs have scrubbed 42 states of all primary competition to Trump, and of course in places like WV alternatives to Trump could appear on the Democratic ballot. Mainly joking, but...waiting for the books to come out. Someday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»New Hampshire has an Open...