Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumNew Hampshire has an Open Primary...
Republicans don't have a competitive Primary to vote in. How will that impact the outcome in the Democratic race?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,027 posts)more effective ways to cheat.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,027 posts)But keep searching you might find something somewhere.
You could find this for example:
7 Conclusion of Individual Analysis
We have demonstrated that open primaries do not lead to a substantively large
increase in crossover voting over closed primaries. And we have argued that
the existing literature on voter behavior suggests that any crossover voting that
occurs will be motivated by voters' desire to vote for their rst-choice candidate, or, to a lesser extent, to avoid wasting their vote. Voters will simply not
have the information necessary to engage in raiding behavior in primaries. We
nd that our empirical analysis of the 1988 Super Tuesday primary provides
overwhelming evidence to support this claim. By carefully examining the voters' evaluations of the available candidates, and the voters' perceptions of the
candidates' chances of winning both the primary and general election, we have
been able to demonstrate that fewer than 2% of voters in the primary engaged
in raiding behavior.
It is our view that the blanket primary will not lead to large amounts of
strategic behavior by voters. The possibility of strategic behavior in a primary
is signicantly dierent than in multi-candidate general elections.
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper/alvar99b.pdf
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... I guess I just have higher standards. But keep making excuses for outsiders and other non-Democrats to mess with party business.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,027 posts)Try reading it again.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,027 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Voltaire2
(13,027 posts)Registered Republicans cannot vote in the Democratic primary. Unaffiliated voters can register for a party at the poll and vote in that primary. A registered voter cannot switch registration after the candidate filing period starts, which was back in October.
https://sos.nh.gov/VotePartyPrimFAQ.aspx
Other than that, there is no evidence that any organized crossover vote effort anywhere in the US has had any effect on the outcome of any presidential primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)Even if NH did have open primaries, it would take a pretty incredible organized effort to make any kind of impact, and 99 percent of Republicans just wouldn't care enough to purposely take a Democratic ballot and vote for someone they felt like is the weaker candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)revealed that 44% and either 37% or 39% of the voters for Sanders laughed (often literally) at the question of whether they would vote for Sanders if he won the nomination. Of course this is an extreme example, but conservative and other hostile crossover voting was happening in every state where it was possible.
You're right in that these malicious spoiler votes didn't manage to elect a weaker candidate over Hillary, but they did affect the vote totals big time and suggest that Sanders had far more support among Democrats than he did.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Doesnt have an open primary either. Those were people who were registered democrats for likely decades who just hated Clinton.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)in WV. Obviously. Of course, this shows how massive the spoiler effect can be even in states with closed primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
But these are also people who have voted in the democratic primaries for 30 or 40 years, not a concerted effort to cross over and strategically try to spoil it.
Some of them might have laughed, but I'm absolutely sure Sanders would have outperformed Clinton in a WV general election. His version of populism would have played better here than Clinton strategy of coming and telling a mining town that she was going to shut down the mines.
As an example, there were likely few places where Obama was less popular in 2012 than WV. 40% of the primary vote went to a guy who was literally in prison on the day of the vote, pulling a long stretch for sending postcards demanding money from people and threatening to kill them if they didn't send it. However, Obama still outperformed Clinton by around 10 points in WV between the two general elections.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)voters were almost all conservative Dems who fully intended to continue their long tradition of voting for the Republican candidate in the GE. Both Sanders and Trump are populist leaders vying for the same voters, and no doubt you're right that Sanders had some appeal for some of these conservatives, but apparently they were identifying more as Hill haters to the exit pollsters.
"West Virginia is the northernmost Southern state and the southernmost Northern state."
I'd forgotten that loon entirely. I looked up Keith Judd but found nothing since 2016, including no contact info on Vote Smart.
Maybe the RNC had a little talk with him. I read the Repubs have scrubbed 42 states of all primary competition to Trump, and of course in places like WV alternatives to Trump could appear on the Democratic ballot. Mainly joking, but...waiting for the books to come out. Someday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
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