RealClearPolitics Iowa averages as of now:

[George II]

Buttigieg - 22.0%
Sanders - 20.0%
Biden - 18.8%
Warren - 16.0%

This means that, give or take a delegate, Buttigieg will get 11, Sanders 11, Biden 10, Warren 9. Basically a wash going into New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

[judeling]

1. And no post debate polls yet

Until the next set of early state polls drop we are just treading water.

The Iowa delegate count means nothing really it is all the post caucus narrative that means anything in the real picture.

[redqueen]

3. I wonder why there have been no post debate polls.

It seems like a pretty routine thing to do. They had a few days to run them before the holidays.

Oh well guess we'll have to wait till the end of next week for any new info.

[judeling]

10. Immediate post debate polls can be

almost meaningless.

People go into the debates watching those they are interested in and the results in the near term tend to reflect the support candidates had before the debate.
It is on reflection, reinforced by the media narrative that the effect of the debate becomes apparent. State of the Race polls will tend to be later.

The trackers that are reported more frequently are more important for the crosstabs. They are in the field all the time and need to be seen for early trends. They need a consistent reporting interval to be of value.

[Cha]

16. Because we Do have December Post Debate Polls..

Biden maintains national lead after December debate: poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=post&forum=1287&pid=392600

#National @MorningConsult Post Debate Poll (12/20-22):

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287392267

[Cha]

15. Yes, there have been "post debate polls"..

Biden maintains national lead after December debate: poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=post&forum=1287&pid=392600

#National @MorningConsult Post Debate Poll (12/20-22):

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287392267

[Hortensis]

2. Nope. This is a national race. Individual states only

speak for themselves, not the nation. Massive media distortion will affect that, but not pervert it out of existence.

Bloomberg's campaign is hoping the early races will allow the media to create a false narrative, like this one, of a wide-open horse race. That way he can snow upcoming states with a blizzard of money, hopefully take the highest percentage of vote in one of them, and present himself in another blizzard of publicity as THE national leader.

[judeling]

11. The National race is informed by the states

Indeed looking at the race as national instead of state by state gives a distorted view of the election.

[boomer_wv]

4. Haven't had a quality NH poll in two weeks.

Those civiqs polls are hot garbage.

Iowa will matter, but only in terms of expectations. I think a lot of people are going to regret all of the time they spent over the past 6 months trying to make Biden look like a dottering fool who had no support from anyone when he outperforms in Iowa. If he were to win there, even by just a point or two, he will unstoppable. That might be true for a 2nd place finish as well, given how low his opponents have lowered expectations for him.

[progressoid]

5. Dang, I was under the impression that Biden was a sure thing in Iowa.

[Demsrule86]

6. That is untrue. No Biden supporter thinks he is a sure thing in Iowa ...it will be a wash is my

opinion. Although, It is possible given the polls that show Iowans believe Biden can beat Trump and other candidates won't that he does in fact have a surprise win...which would basically make him the nominee...others can win and it will mean nothing. But if Biden wins, it is significant...all about expectations. I would also point out that Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Klobachar are polling very badly among AA voters. You won't be the nominee with numbers like that and I see little possibility for growth in this area.

[George II]

8. It looks like the four top candidates will split the 41 delegates almost equally.

[progressoid]

9. Sure.

I just did a 4 minute search of this site and found two long time DUers who said he was. Of course I can't post them because I wouldn't want to violate any DU rules and hurt someone's feelings. YMMV.

Another interesting thing I noticed is that a lot of people have now declared that IA and NH no longer matter. I wonder if that has anything to do with their candidate not doing well in IA and NH.

[Demsrule86]

17. I think Iowa will be a wash...although...I would not be surprised if Biden did win by a small margin

if it was a primary, I think he would...but the caucuses are pretty lame and do not really represent the voters in the state...Now as for New Hampshire...both Sanders and Warren are close to New Hampshire so they must do well...a serious loss for either probably dooms their campaigns. I do not believe Iowa carries the weight it once did ...and neither does New Hampshire...two small white states...and the candidates who some think will win have a dismal showing in the polls in terms of AA vote. No one will win who does not have support in the AA community. No candidate but Biden has such support. I think he does fine in both Iowa and New Hampshire...and on super Tuesday,we may have our nominee ...hope so. I don't want a long bitter primary...I sincerely hope any candidate drops out when it is clear they can't win the primary. We must beat Trump...so egos should be set aside and we should all work for this important important goal... Beating Trump.

[Polybius]

7. I can't see Buttigieg winning it

Not after the last 30 days or so.

[Demsrule86]

18. I don't think the wine cave thing will hurt Buttigieg...it will most likely backfire on Warren.

Much has been written about her fund raising because of the wine cave thing...not helpful for her as she is running on this issue...Buttigieg is not.

[Indykatie]

12. I Was Hoping The Iowa Caucus Would Ended Up Being A Nothing Burger

Saves us from 3 weeks of the Media touting a candidate who scored a knock out blow only to get to SC and be a wipe out when the party base begin voting.

[totodeinhere]

13. It's not just about the delegates. The media might crown one of the candidates as the

winner and that label may give them some momentum going forward.

[George II]

14. Not to refight 2016, but the two candidates finished in a dead heat in Iowa, Sanders crushed in NH..

....but we all know the ultimate result.

Iowa and New Hampshire are very unrepresentative of the Democratic Party.

[sheshe2]

19. Kick

[Capt. America]

20. If Buttigieg does win Iowa marginally I believe it will give him added legitimacy going forward. He

may get a boost in following states or may not. Certainly the delegate count victory may be short lived if at all.