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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

TexasTowelie

(113,624 posts)
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 11:29 PM Jan 2020

IPSOS/Reuters Poll: Biden 23%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%, Bloomberg 8%, Buttigieg 7%

Washington, DC, January 10, 2020 — A new public opinion poll shows that Senator Bernie
Sanders and Former Vice President Joe Biden are the top contenders for the 2020 presidential
nomination. Among Democratic registered voters, Biden (23%) maintains an edge over Sanders
(20%) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (15%). Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (8%) and former
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%) round out the top five candidates in the race for the Democratic
nomination. Among Democrats and independents, Sanders (17%) has a slight lead over Biden
(15%), and Warren (10%) maintains her third-place position. Buttigieg (5%) and Bloomberg (6%) are
statistically tied among Democrats and independents. All other candidates receive 3% of the vote
share or less among Democrats and independents and Democratic registered voters.

When asked about the most important candidate traits that factor into who they decide to vote for,
Democratic registered voters were most likely to say that the ability to beat President Trump in the
general election (42%) was the most important consideration for them. The next most important traits
were strong positions on healthcare (11%) and the economy and jobs (11%).

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-01/topline_reuters_2020_democratic_primary_tracker_01_10_2020_0.pdf

Full story on Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats-poll/looking-for-a-winner-democrats-keep-biden-and-sanders-on-top-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1Z82TV

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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IPSOS/Reuters Poll: Biden 23%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%, Bloomberg 8%, Buttigieg 7% (Original Post) TexasTowelie Jan 2020 OP
Come On, Biden! Cha Jan 2020 #1
When independents are added in, Bernie has a 2 point lead over Biden. This is a national poll. nt Doremus Jan 2020 #2
LoL Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #4
Not sure what's so funny. HerbChestnut Jan 2020 #5
Independents get to vote in some primaries, not in others. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #7
Thanks. HerbChestnut Jan 2020 #11
Ntl poll avg RCP: Biden 29.3 sanders 20.3 EW 14.8 538 Ntl: Biden 27.6 sanders 18.4 EW 16 Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #3
Yep, the averages give people a much better idea of what is going on. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #9
A three point lead? Brokered Convention. crazytown Jan 2020 #6
crazytown, it is one poll. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #8
I am only commenting on what this poll suggests. crazytown Jan 2020 #10
It isn't really about Just Iowa and New Hampshire. The South is huge. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #13
Great look back at what not to do !! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #14
Here come the scare tactics LeftTurn3623 Jan 2020 #17
Your narrative rather conveniently leaves out Al Gore, crazytown Jan 2020 #20
Al Gore won the south, won the popular vote, and was cheated out of the electoral college Sloumeau Jan 2020 #21
The election was close enough to steal, crazytown Jan 2020 #22
First, let me clarify something. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #24
I suppose I should clarify something as well. crazytown Jan 2020 #26
When I talk about the South, I am not just talking about Florida Sloumeau Jan 2020 #28
Thank you for your thoughtful, and well written posts. crazytown Jan 2020 #29
You are very welcome. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #30
Support Joe? LeftTurn3623 Jan 2020 #16
See crazytown Jan 2020 #18
Iowa only represents 54 delegates out of 4300.. proportionally distributed getagrip_already Jan 2020 #31
cf crazytown Jan 2020 #32
bs... bad stats.... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #35
Won't matter madville Jan 2020 #23
Thanks...Go Joe! Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #12
Great gif! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #15
I keep saying.. as one who has participated in caucuses in CO, people are persuadable. hlthe2b Jan 2020 #19
Bernie has the youth vote ismnotwasm Jan 2020 #25
how many blacks are in iowa? getagrip_already Jan 2020 #33
Oh I'm being very broad myself, obviously ismnotwasm Jan 2020 #38
ahh, got it... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #39
I'm trying to understand the poll. Serious question - can someone explain the results Nanjeanne Jan 2020 #27
independents doesn't mean non-partisan.... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #34
I understand but that doesn't answer my question about how Biden is 23% and Sanders is 20%. If you Nanjeanne Jan 2020 #36
You have to look at the polling data.... getagrip_already Jan 2020 #37
I'm not sweating anything. It's just that the polling breakdowns don't make sense. Nanjeanne Jan 2020 #41
Huh that is curious. David__77 Jan 2020 #40
Yeah. Makes no sense. Nanjeanne Jan 2020 #42
I got it. David__77 Jan 2020 #43
 

Cha

(299,490 posts)
1. Come On, Biden!
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 11:33 PM
Jan 2020

TY, TT!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Doremus

(7,261 posts)
2. When independents are added in, Bernie has a 2 point lead over Biden. This is a national poll. nt
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 11:43 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
5. Not sure what's so funny.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:15 AM
Jan 2020

OP is for Democrats only. Independents get to vote in the Democratic primary all over the country.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
7. Independents get to vote in some primaries, not in others.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:39 AM
Jan 2020

This image may help clear things up:

[link:https://image.businessinsider.com/5ddd8776fd9db274af193fe9?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp|

1. In the blue states, you have to be a Democrat to vote in the primary (22 states).

2. In the green states, you can vote in the Democratic Primary if you are a Democrat or are unaffiliated (Independent) (11 states).

3. In the yellow states, you can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, but not both (17 states).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
11. Thanks.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 01:14 AM
Jan 2020

I was aware that some states have open primaries, semi-open primaries, closed primaries, etc. My previous comment may have not been clear. The point was that it's important to consider independents in national polling when many states include them in the primary process.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Thekaspervote

(32,973 posts)
3. Ntl poll avg RCP: Biden 29.3 sanders 20.3 EW 14.8 538 Ntl: Biden 27.6 sanders 18.4 EW 16
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 11:52 PM
Jan 2020

Averages...always give the most accurate assessment

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
9. Yep, the averages give people a much better idea of what is going on.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:43 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
6. A three point lead? Brokered Convention.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:27 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
8. crazytown, it is one poll.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:42 AM
Jan 2020

Looking at the 538 RCP averages give you a better picture.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
10. I am only commenting on what this poll suggests.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:51 AM
Jan 2020

In the end, the only polls that matter are the votes. If Biden wins big in IA, we can put down the glasses, and concentrate on trump. If he comes in 4th as per DMR/Selzer poll, it's a long way home.

538: "Iowa matters a lot". If Biden prevails, he has a 80% chance of winning outright.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287416470

I'm not in love with Warren, and would happily support Joe (very much so).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
13. It isn't really about Just Iowa and New Hampshire. The South is huge.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 01:36 AM
Jan 2020

If a Democrat wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but does not do really well in the South, he often loses in the general election. That's because in order to do really well in the South, you have to have the Black vote. When Democrats do not have a strong enough support in the South, they often lose the election.

Carter and Clinton were both Southerners who killed in the South, and they both won in the General Election. Clinton didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, but that did not matter--he still won the nomation because of his big support in the South. Obama wasn't from the South, but he was Black, so he killed in the South too.

Do you know the last time the Democrats won a General Election with a liberal from New England? It was JFK in 1960, and that was before the Voting Rights Act was passed. After that happened, the racist White Democratic Dixiecrats fled the Democratic Party and became Republicans. Because of that, Nixon invoked his "Southern Strategy" in 1968 and the Republicans have been invoking it ever since. If the Democrats end up putting forth a nominee who is not really strong in the South, there is a good chance that that nominee will lose in the general. Fortunately, Biden is leading the polls nationwide and is very strong in the South.

In 1984, Walter Mondale won the nomination, but the only Southern state that he won in the primary was Florida. Most of the other Southern states were won by Gary Hart, with a few also being won by Jesse Jackson. Mondale got creamed in the General Election.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis only won Texas and Florida in the Primary. The other Southern states were won by Al Gore and Jesse Jackson. Dukakis lost in the General as well.

People are worrying a lot this year about exciting the youth vote when historically, exciting the black vote has been much more important. Hillary won a lot of the Southern States, but she still didn't get enough of the Black Vote--whether that was from voter suppression, or Russian dirty tricks, or whatever.

Do you know why Biden's strongest supporters are older Americans? Because a lot of us have watched all of these Presidential races, and we know what happened to folks like Michael Dukakis. The last thing we want to run is a White very Liberal guy from New England. We have been there, done that. At least Elizabeth Warren is a woman, and that could help balance things out. But a white very liberal guy from New England who is not really strong with Black support? To many of us Biden supporters, it is electoral suicide.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,973 posts)
14. Great look back at what not to do !!
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 02:09 AM
Jan 2020

Go Joe go!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LeftTurn3623

(628 posts)
17. Here come the scare tactics
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 02:48 AM
Jan 2020

Anymore ghost stories you have ?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
20. Your narrative rather conveniently leaves out Al Gore,
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:25 AM
Jan 2020

from the South, who won a majority of older voters, but bombed with the young, after attempting to save Copyright and Decency from the Internet, children from naughty words with the V-Chip, Walmart from carrying nasty CD's courtesy of Tipper's Parental Advisories, and everyone from Monica Lewinsky, via his 'morals campaigner' running mate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
21. Al Gore won the south, won the popular vote, and was cheated out of the electoral college
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:30 AM
Jan 2020

by a biased Supreme Court.

Democrats Should Remember Al Gore Won Florida in 2000 — but Lost the Presidency With a Pre-emptive Surrender
[link:https://theintercept.com/2018/11/10/democrats-should-remember-al-gore-won-florida-in-2000-but-lost-the-presidency-with-a-preemptive-surrender/|

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
22. The election was close enough to steal,
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:39 AM
Jan 2020

that's the point. And I must say, any electoral strategy that depends on winning FL, now trumps home base, is as bankrupt as his university. 2018 was the biggest blue wave since Watergate, but FL was .... as close as 2000. There's a state that is never there when you need them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
24. First, let me clarify something.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:57 AM
Jan 2020

I did not say that being strong in the South was a guarantee of a Democrat winning. What I was saying that it is almost impossible to win without being strong in the South. I have heard many people say that Black Americans are the backbone of the Democratic Party, but I don't think that many Democrats truly understand why that is. They are because without them we have no chance of winning in the South, plus we have no chance of winning in the Rustbelt. Without them, we don't win in many of the urban centers that we need to balance out the rural areas where we tend not to win. Try to find a Democrat who won the general election who did not have very strong support in the South among Black Americans. I cannot find one from 1932 on.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
26. I suppose I should clarify something as well.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 10:10 AM
Jan 2020

I'm bullish on Texas. And that is the strongest argument, as far as I am concerned for nominating Biden.

My frustration with the perennial focus on Florida, is that the state is trending Red, via it's aging demographics, whereas, in the longer term, both AZ & TX are Blue for the taking, like CA was in the 80s.

Warren is not a effete New Englander, she is a at heart, and Oakie from a modest background made good, although that doesn't play too well in Texas either

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
28. When I talk about the South, I am not just talking about Florida
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:11 AM
Jan 2020

I am talking about all of the states that used to be part of the confederacy..the states South of the Mason Dixon line and west of Texas. However, I am also aware of the importance of Texas, as well as every other state in the U.S.

Strength in the former Confederate South is a good barometer for strength of African Americans. Do I think Warren might be able to win the nomination and the G.E.? Yes, and yes. Do I think Bernie can? I think Biden and Warren both have a better chance than Bernie does. Warren brings the advantage of being a woman, which is a big plus. Bernie Sanders does not. If someone likes Sanders types programs and wants to win, I believe that Warren is the way to go. So, which matters more, the woman advantage of Warren or the Moderate advantage of Biden? I would say Biden because in head to heads with Trump Biden tends to score better. That does not mean that Warren could not beat him. I am just explaining why I lean toward Biden. It also explains why I think it is a mistake to choose Sanders over Warren, because I think she has a big advantage over him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
29. Thank you for your thoughtful, and well written posts.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:35 AM
Jan 2020

Much appreciated.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
30. You are very welcome.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:37 AM
Jan 2020

Thank you for *your* thoughtful and well-written posts. It is nice to chat with someone who knows a lot and cares a lot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LeftTurn3623

(628 posts)
16. Support Joe?
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 02:46 AM
Jan 2020

Makes zero sense when EW policy is closer to Bernie.

Heck they made a deal not to attack each other because their views are so close

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
31. Iowa only represents 54 delegates out of 4300.. proportionally distributed
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:40 AM
Jan 2020

It is practically all white. It is a caucus state.

It means, exactly, squat.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
35. bs... bad stats....
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:54 AM
Jan 2020

I've seen it, but it still doesn't matter. Every election is different.

We don't normally go into primaries with 4 or 5 strong candidates. Usually it's 2 strong, and a small number of others.

We have 5 strong, and at least that many others this round.

It's a big difference. Iowa will mean nothing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

madville

(7,413 posts)
23. Won't matter
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:51 AM
Jan 2020

A majority of superdelegates would put Biden over the top regardless.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

hlthe2b

(103,068 posts)
19. I keep saying.. as one who has participated in caucuses in CO, people are persuadable.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:08 AM
Jan 2020

There is something about meeting with other people that you may or may not know, but who come from your neighborhood and community that tends to make many people willing to at least listen. And there are a lot of attendees who are "soft" on their chosen candidate support.

It is quite different when it is you and the ballot box. Peer pressure, no matter how mild, can influence a lot of those who are not as committed, well informed, or just willing to listen.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ismnotwasm

(42,093 posts)
25. Bernie has the youth vote
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 10:01 AM
Jan 2020

Biden has the Black vote. It’s interesting how this will play out, I’m still convinced Biden will carry the nomination.

In Seattle, or Washington state rather, you have a lot of people who supported Bernie during caucuses, but Hillary won the actual votes. So preferences and polling are kind of fluid.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
33. how many blacks are in iowa?
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:42 AM
Jan 2020

If your analysis were the only factors, he wouldn't even register.

Obviously biden has broad support or he wouldn't be leading.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ismnotwasm

(42,093 posts)
38. Oh I'm being very broad myself, obviously
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:36 PM
Jan 2020

I think Biden will win the primary fairly handily. The areas of support are kind of interesting though

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
39. ahh, got it...
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:43 PM
Jan 2020

Yeah, the younglings tend to be more extreme than older voters. That's always been the case in my life. In the 60's the motto was don't trust anybody over 30. Joe may have been one of the kids who said that.

So it's natural they would gravitate to the more in your face candidates with fringe ideas (not a shot, a lot of those are excellent ideas, just out there).

So Bernie has the advantage a lot of younger supporters. Joe has the advantage with older voters, poc, woman, and independents.

One is broad. The other isn't insignificant.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Nanjeanne

(5,062 posts)
27. I'm trying to understand the poll. Serious question - can someone explain the results
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 10:26 AM
Jan 2020

to me. According to one question:

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote? - NOT ASKED OF REPUBLICANS

Biden - all respondents- 15%. Dems - 21% Ind - 5% Dem RV - 23%

Sanders - all respondents - 17%. Dems - 21%. Ind - 12%. Dem RV - 20%

Warren - all respondents - 10%. Dems - 14%. Ind - 4%. Dem RV - 15%

What does Dem RV actually mean? How does Sanders have a higher percentage of every category but somehow Dem RV is lower than Biden? Even if you take out Independents under Dems both Biden and Sanders are at 21%.

Serious question. Not looking for debate. Just trying to understand. Thanks.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
34. independents doesn't mean non-partisan....
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:47 AM
Jan 2020

Many are republicans who don't identify that way.

Look, there are ~ 20-25% registered republicans, and about 25-28% registered dems. Everyone else is an indie/other. But a lot of those won't vote for a d, so it's tough to poll them. You can get people who would never vote d but don't want trump running against biden.

So the indie numbers aren't very reliable. Just cuz.......

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Nanjeanne

(5,062 posts)
36. I understand but that doesn't answer my question about how Biden is 23% and Sanders is 20%. If you
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:17 PM
Jan 2020

look at the responses - it shows:

Biden - all respondents- 15%. Dems - 21% Ind - 5% Dem RV - 23%

Sanders - all respondents - 17%. Dems - 21%. Ind - 12%. Dem RV - 20%

So if they didn't ask Republicans this question (which they say they didn't) and you remove the Independents (which show 12% Sanders and 5% Biden) - the Dems show 21% for both. So what does Dem RV mean and why is Biden 23% and Sanders 20% when Sanders is equal or ahead in each category that was included in this question?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

getagrip_already

(15,398 posts)
37. You have to look at the polling data....
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:34 PM
Jan 2020

And see how many dems, indies, etc were polled. The rv number looks like just registered dems, but the dems includes indioes in the pool.

So 100 registered dems, 23 picked biden and 20 picked sanders. 57 picked someone else or nobody at all.

But the dem/indie number is still the 100 dems, plus 100 indies, so 200 total people instead of just 100.

In that case, you still had the 23 dems who picked biden, but you also had 7 indies who chose him, which resulted in 30 total voters out of 200, or 15%.

Those numbers are ficticious, but it explains the results.

Don't sweat the polls. They are a thermometer with no scale. That's why you should look at the averages of the averages.

But this shows again why Iowa won't mean anything. There are so many candidates, a winner doesn't mean much, and the spoils will be meaningless. Sure, the media wants a horserace and will seize on a 3 vote difference as a catastrophic blow to whoever is number 2. But in reality, not so much.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Nanjeanne

(5,062 posts)
41. I'm not sweating anything. It's just that the polling breakdowns don't make sense.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:53 PM
Jan 2020

Just trying to understand it from their posted numbers. Not imaginary ones. But thanks for trying to explain it to me.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

David__77

(23,796 posts)
40. Huh that is curious.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:53 PM
Jan 2020

...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Nanjeanne

(5,062 posts)
42. Yeah. Makes no sense.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:53 PM
Jan 2020

I think most people don’t look at the actual responses so it doesn’t become obvious. But it’s curious.

Look at response to immigration question. Same bizarre result in Biden’s slight lead although no category has him ahead.

Personally, polls aren’t a big deal to me but when headlines say someone is ahead I usually like to see the actual data. When viewing this data - it’s a puzzlement!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

David__77

(23,796 posts)
43. I got it.
Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:55 PM
Jan 2020

“Democrats” includes those who indicated not being registered to vote. This means Sanders did very well among that segment.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»IPSOS/Reuters Poll: Bide...