Nate Silver: If Joe Biden wins Iowa, 'he's off to the races' [Video]

[UncleNoel]

Looking good, Joe!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dems-iowa-loss-face-uphill-154714122.html

[Hortensis]

1. :) Joe was "off to the races" months before he finally declared,

and he's been far ahead ever since, a "top tier" of one.

It's not over until it's over, which is often effectively before the primaries are. We'll see how they all do out west.

[cannabis_flower]

2. That's a big if

Election Update: Sanders Now Leads A Wide-Open Iowa Race

The poll showed Bernie Sanders ahead with 20 percent of the vote, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 17 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent and Joe Biden at 15 percent. This is a reasonably big shift from the previous Selzer & Co. poll, in November, which had shown Buttigieg ahead with 25 percent of the vote. (Although, for reasons I’ll get to in a moment, the model views the latest poll as more neutral than negative for Buttigieg.) Amy Klobuchar was next in the poll at 6 percent, but that was unchanged from November despite a couple of debate performances since November that voters rated strongly in our polling with Ipsos. Andrew Yang was sixth at 5 percent.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-sanders-now-leads-a-wide-open-iowa-race/

[madville]

3. Nate also said

If Biden doesn’t win Iowa and NH the chances of a brokered convention go way up. We all know the superdelegates will mostly break for Joe regardless but there could be a bunch of drama.

[Sherman A1]

4. and if he doesn't?

the primaries will continue just as they are scheduled.

[Gothmog]

5. If sanders fails to win in 93+% white state, he is done

[Cha]

6. We're gonna see..