Democratic Primaries

Thekaspervote

(32,779 posts) Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:23 AM Jan 2020

IA USA/TODAY Suffolk 538 Poll rated A- Biden 25 Sanders 19 Mayor Pete 18 Warren 13

Link to tweet

?s=21

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

IA USA/TODAY Suffolk 538 Poll rated A- Biden 25 Sanders 19 Mayor Pete 18 Warren 13 (Original Post) Thekaspervote Jan 2020 OP

Bringing the average to Bernie +.2 Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #1

538 predicts Biden to win IA Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #2

Yep! Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #3

Literal dead heat. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #4

K&R! nt TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #5

KR! WTG Kasper! Cha Jan 2020 #6

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

1. Bringing the average to Bernie +.2

Reply to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:25 AM

Jan 2020

This is a dead heat. Which is great for Bernie as he has the strongest base of support.

(edited because that is what the 538 average reflects including this poll)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,779 posts)

2. 538 predicts Biden to win IA

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:33 AM

Jan 2020

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

3. Yep!

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:34 AM

Jan 2020

A 35% chance of each Bernie and Biden winning. Heckuva lead! Both are projected to win the exact percentage of votes and delegates (13)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

4. Literal dead heat.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:35 AM

Jan 2020

Biden is forecasted to win an average of 27% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 10% and 44% of the vote. He has a 1 in 3 (35%) chance of winning the most votes, essentially tied with the second most likely winner, Sanders, who has a 1 in 3 (35%) chance.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

TexasTowelie

(112,287 posts)

5. K&R! nt

Reply to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:42 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,378 posts)

6. KR! WTG Kasper!

Reply to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 02:23 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this discussion