Okay, let's get started. Here are the most recent aggregate polls for SC and NV

[UncleNoel]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#South_Carolina_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Nevada_caucus

Joe has a strong lead in SC and Joe and Bernie are head to head in Nevada.

We have to see how the upcoming polls play out after Iowa and NH results for Pete, Amy and Liz.

1. South Carolina. Joe a good deal ahead.



2. Nevada. Joe and Bernie back and forth, but polls are old. Bernie might get a bounce here.

[LaurenOlimina]

1. Those numbers are about to move.

Two 5th place finishes by Biden, Pete's strong showing and Klobuchar's performance are not reflected yet.

[UncleNoel]

6. Pete has an AA problem in SC and Amy has not polled well with AA voters either.

I read that in NH Amy got college educated and white women votes. SC and Nevada are different demographics.

See how it plays out in Nevada though.

[LaurenOlimina]

11. Which was a known factor in those polls...

Are you saying Pete and Amy won't get a bump for strong performance or outright winning Iowa?
Are you saying voters won't factor in a FIFTH pace finish for Biden? Not third or fourth, FIFTH.
Are you saying their campaigning in SC and NV won't boost their numbers?
Are you saying that those NV poll numbers from January won't change?

Joe was the "White working man's guy" when Obama selected him and fifth place says he doesn't have it anymore. Don't you think Africans Americans, who value electability, won't notice that? So far, he has performed below expectations and historically he has not performed well at all. Pete and Amy have exceeded expectations by a long shot.

Those numbers will move.

[Cha]

2. Kick for Biden

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Didn't you hear? ...

Joe spoke, or something, in NH and therefore he's done.
Liz didn't speak enough, or something, and therefore she's done.
Amy may or may not have spoke, and therefore she's done.
(Apparently poor Tom Steyer didn't even rate being asked to step aside).

It's all over!! Everybody must drop out for the good of ... um... SOMETHING!

We should send notices and appropriate condolences to the other 48 states because Iowa and New Hampshire have spoken for everybody.

[denem]

3. What we know so far ... Biden 'voters' don't show up.

He may be leading in the polls, but finishes 4th and 5th.

[UncleNoel]

8. When was he leading in the polls in Iowa and NH?

[denem]

9. Certainly was, on more than a few occasions.

[ancianita]

4. Nevada is a closed primary. Dems went blue in two out of 16 counties in 2016.

Nevada registered voters Statewide:

Dems 698,044
Repub 587,198
Ind 82,406
Lib 19,011
Non 423,911
Other 16,816

Grand Total 1,827,386

I can see why the ground game goes to the richest candidates, since there aren't that many votes to go around.

[obamanut2012]

5. Well, I think Klobuchar may be the one getting a bounce

[4139]

7. Old polls are like old fish

[LaurenOlimina]

12. Doubly so with Biden.

He has fallen 8 points in SC since Feb. 1.

The full effect of his two FIFTH PLACE finishes has yet to appear.

[LaurenOlimina]

13. 538 is predicting a Sanders win in both states now.

"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 31% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 16% and 48% of the vote. He has a 1 in 2 (53%) chance of winning the most votes, a bit better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 3 (32%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/


"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 40% of the vote in Nevada. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 22% and 58% of the vote. He has a 2 in 3 (68%) chance of winning the most votes, much better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 7 (15%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/nevada/

Details are at the links.

[squirecam]

15. Worthless

No polling from NV for a month.

[BlueIdaho]

16. 538 is rubbish.

I’m sorry but they swing like a weather vane trying to catch a lucky break. Their last prediction before Iowa was for a Biden win. On the night of the caucus they re-wrote the headline.

[Laelth]

14. You go, Joe.

This is a team sport. Ultimately, I am on Joe's team. There's a long way to go, and we shall see what we see.



-Laelth