Regular Democrats Just Aren't Worried About Bernie

[CentralMass]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/regular-democrats-arent-least-bit-worried-about-bernie/606688/

"Many in the party elite remain deeply skeptical of the Vermont senator, but rank-and-file voters do not share that hesitation.
Judging by media coverage and the comments of party luminaries, you might think Democrats are bitterly polarized over Bernie Sanders’s presidential bid. Last month, Hillary Clinton declared that “nobody likes” the Vermont senator. Last week, James Carville, who ran Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, said he was “scared to death” of the Sanders campaign, which he likened to “a cult.” Since the beginning of the year, news organization after news organization has speculated that Sanders’s success may set off a Democratic “civil war.”
But polls of Democratic voters show nothing of the sort. Among ordinary Democrats, Sanders is strikingly popular, even with voters who favor his rivals. He sparks less opposition—in some cases far less—than his major competitors. On paper, he appears well positioned to unify the party should he win its presidential nomination."

[tiredtoo]

1. What the hell is a regular Democrat? NT

[PatSeg]

2. I kind of thought that I was

but apparently not. Maybe I am an irregular Democrat!

[tiredtoo]

8. Well good for you

hopefully you can fill me in with the traits/qualities that define regular democrats.

[Saviolo]

7. People who are not Very Online, probably.

I'll fully admit that I am Far Too Online for my own good and my own mental health. Most people don't watch every poll and agonize over every news item. I hesitate to say "low-information voters" because by and large they're not, really. But the vast majority of voters are not the same group as is represented by the people on DU. Or Twitter. Or the comment section on YouTube.

[thesquanderer]

13. One who is not a "party luminary" n/t

[HarlanPepper]

17. Anyone who is pro Bernie apparently.

Anyone who isn’t is an oligarch enabling corporatist third way establishment monster, apparently.

[DownriverDem]

27. I'm a regular (active) Democrat

and I'm very worried about you know who. Never forget that McGovern won only MA and Washington DC. He promised freebies too BTW.

[tiredtoo]

28. As am I (active) Democrat

check your calendar it is now 2020 not 1972. The times they are a changing.

[Laelth]

40. Good question.

In an attempt to answer it, I quote the late, great Will Rogers who said, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”



-Laelth

[handmade34]

3. "ordinary Democrats"

hmmmm

[greatauntoftriplets]

18. Well, hot damn!

So I'm not only extraordinary, but also elite? Here I thought that I was just a lifelong Democrat.

Not that I'm afraid of Sanders, of course.

[ehrnst]

5. Nope. Bloomberg is beating Bernie in the polls against DT by 3 points

And Bernie is tied with Buttigieg...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

[ehrnst]

15. He isn't leading (all the Dem candidates against) Trump in the polls.

Bernie isn't the only candidate on the Dem ticket leading Trump in the polls, either....

Is that clearer?

And the polls aren't taking into account that the GOP wants him as the nominee, and are coddling him now, but will turn all oppo on him during the GE, in a way that will make their attacks now on Biden look mild.

[saidsimplesimon]

35. Looks like neck and neck races in

all the "battleground states". This election will be a cliff hanger. As Harry Reid has said, rumpie may win come November regardless of the candidate we choose. That's a motivator for me to do all I can to send rumpie home to Russia.

GOTV and remain watchful for hacking and other dirty tricks (Like magats in Brooks Bros. suits storming locations where votes are tallied for the state.) Facebook and Google Ads will again allow the highest bidder to spread rumors and promote voter suppression.

Scary how much depends on a big win for Democrats in November. We need the Presidency and the Senate seats to begin the work of restoring that which has been torn asunder.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Translated,

regular Democrats, whatever that term means in this puff piece, are ok with Sanders. Meanwhile, unregular Democrats, meaning leadership in the party with experience knowing that the party candidate must garner widespread support and not have points of vulnerability, know better.

[tiredtoo]

9. Who has no points of vulnerability?

Matters not who we finally pick as our candidate, the republicans will try to define them as socialists/communists.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. The more truth to the charge the more it will stick

All socialists not created equal.

[tiredtoo]

14. ok All Socialists are not created equal.

we are in agreement.

[delisen]

10. But people paying closer attention are concerned

[Blue_Tires]

19. "Regular" Democrats means "WHITE"

For those keeping score at home...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

24. Nope.

You must not have heard. Bernie has the most diverse coalition and is tied with Biden for African American support.

[Blue_Tires]

25. Since he's so perfect how did he get his ass kicked in '16??

And I'm very interested in seeing which black folks these pollsters are talking to because it doesn't jibe with what I see and hear locally...

[George II]

33. It's from "The Rising", Krystal Ball et. al. Take with a grain, or boulder, of salt.

[Blue_Tires]

26. For the record, I'm very fucking concerned

and if I'm not a so-called "regular" Dem, then what does this make me??

[David__77]

20. I think it's somewhat similar to anti-Clinton stuff from last time.

Some activists may have thought she was deeply and widely unpopular among primary voters.

Regardless of who the nominee is the party leaders and elected officials will consolidate.

[McCamy Taylor]

22. She was deeply unpopular with Putin's hackers because she and Bill would not let Russia

have a good old fashioned ethnic cleansing in the Balkans.

[McCamy Taylor]

21. Speak for yourself. I have been a rank and file yellow dog for 60 years

and I do not think that Sanders is a team player, meaning that he will not support the Democratic Party and its ideals. He will do exactly what he wants even if it means throwing important members of the party coalition under the bus. He has got no solidarity in his soul.

[CentralMass]

23. I didn't author the article.

[Gothmog]

29. CNN-Bernie Sanders misled America. Voters aren't comfortable with a socialist President

Link to tweet

It is true the Sanders was leading in the poll, conducted by the Wall Street Journal and NBC -- but only among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents when asked who they supported for the Democratic nomination. He had 27% support compared to Mike Bloomberg, Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, each with 14% support. And in a hypothetical matchup, he was narrowly ahead of President Donald Trump.

But two-thirds of all voters -- Democrats plus everyone else -- said they would be uncomfortable with a socialist President.
Come November, it will be all Americans over the age of 18 who elect the Electoral College that picks the President.
Those results and the questions they raise about whether the country would accept a socialist are repeated in an NPR / PBS News Hour Marist poll.

In that poll, Sanders had even more support -- 31% in the Democratic primary compared to Michael Bloomberg, in second place with 19%.

Take a look at the party breakdown regarding socialism. Fifty percent of Democrats have a favorable view of socialism compared to 46% who have a favorable view of capitalism.

But again, socialism is far less favorable than capitalism in the country as a whole. In the NPR poll, among Americans overall, just 28% had a favorable view of socialism compared to 57% who had a favorable view of capitalism.
Among Republicans, 76% held a favorable view of capitalism compared to 7% who felt favorably about socialism.

[uponit7771]

30. Of course they don't they're not looking at his lack of CONSISTENT swing state polling that's

... ahead of any other candidate.

The M$M is feeding everyone national poll eye candy while the democratic party politicos are seeing Sanders failing in the MOE of swing states.

[evertonfc]

31. Unfortunately he won't unify

the party he isn't a member of. Most of us will vote for him but a lot, especially older people from middle America won't. These polls mean nothing until the 700 million in GOP ads show him fawning over socialists and reading Karl Marx. He can't win a GE

[TDale313]

32. Dunno if I'm a "regular" Democrat

Sanders not my first (or even second) choice, but I’m not panicking at the idea of him getting the nomination. I think he can win, but it’s not a sure thing and we’ll have to fight hard and be united. And he’s a zillion times better than Trump. Copy and paste for all our candidates. My gut says Warren would be our best shot... but no one’s the perfect foil for Trump and no one’s a non starter from my perspective.

[CentralMass]

36. I'm a big fan of Senator Warren as well.

[George II]

34. So who determines who are "the party elite" and who are "regular Democrats"?

When I see "regular Democrats" I think of Democrats with well-rounded diets who eat lots of fiber.

[Raftergirl]

37. Does someone count as a regular Democrat

who has voted D at the local, state and national level and has never missed a single primary or general election since eligible to vote in 1976?

[CentralMass]

39. If you read the article at the link the author citrs several polls

To make his case that "ordinary "Democrats like Bernie

[Raftergirl]

42. I read the article and what struck me most was this little "tidbit"

“Although political handicappers sometimes presume that centrist Democrats are hostile to Sanders, the Quinnipiac poll suggests that Sanders enjoys widespread affection even outside his ideological lane. Among self-described moderate or conservative Democrats, Sanders boasts a net favorability rating of 43 points—far higher than Biden or Bloomberg fares among the “very liberal” Democrats who compose Sanders’s ideological base. Ninety-eight percent of Warren supporters, 97 percent of Buttigieg supporters and 92 percent of Biden supporters say they would back Sanders against Donald Trump. Only among Bloomberg supporters does that number dip to 83 percent. Overall, Sanders voters are significantly more likely to say that they won’t back one of his rivals in the general election than the other way around. Sanders’s critics within the party may resent his supporters for threatening to stay home in November. But most Democratic voters, including most centrist ones, have little problem with Sanders himself.”

Every Democrat I know is a Vote Blue No Matter Who except for Bernie voters. Doesn’t mean we like him or want him to be the nominee. It’s that we aren’t stupid and want Donald gone.

So I’m not surprised by the polling that “ordinary” D voters would support Bernie in the general.

It’s only Bernie voters who won’t support another D nominee.

[JT45242]

38. Totally misses the point ---- and why Bernie is dangerous as a nominee -- especially downballot

1. The largest group of voters in the last election was "Did not show up to vote" -- that is the group that we have to mobilize. Polls showed that the Comey announcement, but her emails, Sanders late jumping on the bandwagon, Russian trolling etc. all worked together to get people to stay home. They both suck and so I won't vote for either. We need people to get out the vote because we must win key battleground states by large enough margins that russian meddling will be too obvious to ignore if votes are compromised. That means Bernie would have to do well in Florida (Cuba, ouch); Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Does his message make people who aren't that far left -- independents, intermittent voters, etc show up to get rid of Trump -- unlikely. Even if he wins the popular vote you have to remember that the electoral college over represents ND, SD, Wyoming, etc that have no people. Ask yourself, how many of the 35-40% of all eligible voters who didn't vote last time -- especially in key battleground states will actually show up to vote and then opt for a self proclaimed socialist who was pro-Castro, calls the party that he nominally belongs to 'corrupt', etc. etc. Although I will vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name in November (unlike many of the Bernie supporters who went to Stein and others last time or took their ball and stayed home and did not vote), I am not who it will take to win.Nor are most of the people who frequent this site -- we will vote for whomever has a (D). It's the 35% who usually don't vote that will make the difference.

2. The incessant ads that will be run with video of Bernie calling the democratic party corrupt will guarentee losses in the senate. We actually have a chance to flip McTurtle's seat -- until the bernie ads calling Democrats corrupt too will likely either keep people at home or get threatened republicans re-electd because if they are both corrupt, I might as well vote for the one who I know and has brought "insert porkbarrel legislation project" to our state. His own words would mean that if somehow he pulled off the electoral college miracle, he would still be looking at a Republican senate. They'll let the SC dwindle and not replace a soul for the first 2 years. Just remember that 52% of the Senate represents only about 14% of the population.

3. Winning an election is not about being pure -- and winning the Presidency means winning 50% plus 1 of the possible electoral college votes. Not winning the popular vote. The map is stacked against us. It is remnant of the compromise to get slave states to sign the original document. Unless we play the game with that in mind, we will lose.

[CentralMass]

41. Polls done by YouGov in 2008 and 20016 don't seem to support at least

part of your premise.. in 2008 24% of Hillary voted for McCain vs 12% of Sanders voters voting from trump in 2016.


RCP of Bernie vs tRump from RCP
Florida:
Bernie + 0.3 over tRump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_sanders-6842.html

Ohio;
Bernie + 6 over tRump

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_sanders-6764.html

Michigan:
Bernie + 4.7 over tRump

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html

Pennsylvania;
Bernie + 2.6 over tRump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html

Wisconsin
TRump + 0.7 Note Biden is + 0.7
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-6850.html

California:
Bernie + 22.3 over tRump

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_trump_vs_sanders-6880.html

[Gothmog]

43. The grandson of GHW Bush is running this ad against sanders and socialism

TX CD 22 is an open seat with Pete Olson retiring. The DCCC has targeted this seat for flipping. There are 15 candidates in GOP primary including the grandson of GHW Bush. Another candidate, Kathleen Wall, is running in the GOP primary and she spent $6 million in 2018 running in GOP primary for TX CD 2 and did not make GOP primary runoff. I have had Wall block walkers come to my house twice (I live in a very GOP neighborhood) and I have found Wall doorhanger on my door twice now.

Pierce Bush is running against socialism

Link to tweet

Sri Preston Kulkarni is the leading Democrat for this seat (Sri has a GOP type and another person running against him in the Texas Democratic Primary) I texted this ad to Sri and he knew about it already. Sri Preston Kulkarni is a great guy and we need to flip this seat

If sanders is the nominee, we can forget about this seat and we will have Kevin McCarthy as speaker