On betting markets, every time Bernie goes up for nomination

[CalFione]

Trump goes up for re-election.


I have been watching the betting markets. There is almost a 1-to-1 relationship between Bernie’s movements in price and Trump’s.

When Bernie’s odds for the nomination go up, Trump’s odds for re-election go up, when Bernie goes down, Trump goes down.


Betting markets are just capturing the “wisdom of crowds”. People make bets based on what they perceive, what they hear from pundits, friends, and family.

When people perceive that Bernie has momentum, they bet up his price. They also bet up Trump’s price for re-election at the same time.


When people are putting their money where their mouth is, they tend to be more objective. Especially the big money bettors.


The Wisdom of Crowds knows. A Bernie nomination is good for Trump.

[cherryinpa]

1. Unfortunate

Unfortunate lack of response to this thread. You only get a few people here who understand the significance of whats going on or have any background in statistics / probability - its simply not taught well in schools. There's another thread where someone criticises Nate Silver because somehow by collecting his statistics he made predictions that resulted in Hillary losing.

If you look at the betting markets they're screaming for us to avoid Bernie and to go with a moderate like Biden.

It's like being on the titanic crows nest seeing the ice-berg coming and screaming, but no one is listening.

That being said I doubt its a complete loss and we could still defeat Trump with Bernie in the lead, but just that it moves from a sure bet (Biden or even Warren) to a 50 / 50 gamble.

[LawnKorn]

2. Correlation and Causation

Are you telling us that if we place a bet on Trump, it will prevent Bernie from getting the nomination?