Bernie is going to win NV today

[CalFione]

That’s really not in question.

The Russia revelation came after 75% of Nevada already had voted. Warren’s great debate performance came after 60% of Nevada had voted.

The big questions are:

1. How much does he win by? Polls show him up by 13-14 and getting over 30%. If he underperforms his polls significantly like he did in Iowa and NH and only wins by 5 and gets around 25%, that means something.

2. Who comes in second? If it is Joe, it stabilizes his campaign and probably stems his fall in SC and he wins there. If Joe doesn’t clear 15% and get any delegates, he is likely done. If Liz surges to second, she will be the story. If Pete comes in second again, given the demographics of the state, it would be a big deal for him.

3. Does Amy suspend her campaign after a likely 5th or 6th place finish? I love Amy, but there’s no point in hanging on and taking 7-10% of the vote from other moderates which effectively helps Bernie. Tough decision, but she needs to drop out.

4. Will there be a caucus clusterf*** in the tabulation again? Can the Democratic party take that again? The Bernie people will scream “rigged” no matter what, but this would give them fuel - especially if Bernie underperforms his polls again.

[Garrett78]

1. It's not Bernie people screaming "rigged." Take a look around DU.

And I know it's hard for folks within the DU bubble to accept, but Sanders is the 2nd choice for a large number of supporters of other candidates.

[CalFione]

2. They are still screaming "rigged" about Iowa

And I am not talking about Democratic Underground. Here, most people are actually pretty sane.

I am talking about the wider universe in which Bernie people think everything is rigged.

[Garrett78]

7. Again, take a good look around DU. "Rigged" is getting tossed around a lot, and ot by Bernie people.

Iowa was a mess, as evidenced further by the significant changes in the count over time. Not rigged, just a massive klusterfuck.

[CalFione]

8. nobody here called Iowa caucus "rigged" except Bernie people

and to their credit, not many here did that.

But in the wider world outside Democratic Underground, they did.

[Garrett78]

10. You keep ignoring what I'm saying. But that's fine.

[CalFione]

13. No, you keep ignoring that only one group has called caucuses rigged

Iowa caucus was called rigged by Bernie people, and no one else.

If Nevada caucus has similar tabulation problems, Bernie people will call it rigged, and no one else will.


Nobody other than Bernie people have called any part of this nomination process rigged.

[Garrett78]

14. You're ignoring the fact that many anti-Bernie people are using the word "rigged."

Just like you have ignored the article I've posted each time you falsely claim that we won big in 2018 because millions of Trump voters switched sides. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/10/18076872/trump-46-percent-solition

[CalFione]

18. The Vox article is wrong

[Garrett78]

20. LOL. Okay.

Darn all that data.

[jmg257]

3. I wonder just how big the russian thing is...would a bernie supporter NOT vote for him

just because they may read 'Russia wants him to win'?

[CalFione]

5. no, but an undecided voter (and there are many) might

cross Bernie off their list

[jmg257]

9. Yeah truth - it could easily be a deal breaker if trying to choose. thanks!

[Moderateguy]

12. Bernie has a core group of supporters who will never abandon him

The problem is his limited appeal to anyone outside of the core group

[still_one]

28. and it seems a lot of folks are ignoring that LACK OF APPEAL outside of his core group

which accounts for about 70%.

That is a pretty large segment

[bearsfootball516]

32. We'll have to see what happens in Nevada.

Polls seem to show his approvals among Hispanics and African Americans are rising. If he has a blowout win in Nevada, a pretty diverse state, it could be a sign that voters outside his base are starting to shift toward him.

[totodeinhere]

27. A large chunk of Nevada Democrats already voted early before this story broke yesterday.

I don't think it will have much effect in Nevada but it might going forward elsewhere. We'll see.

[HarlanPepper]

33. It's a "c"

Followed by three letters after that, the first of which is a “u”.

So no impact.

[katmondoo]

4. remember the Russians!

[CalFione]

6. Too late. 75% of Nevada already voted before yesterday

[chillfactor]

11. so very sad....

[frazzled]

15. I think the Nevada results will be just as controversial as Iowa's

It's the first time they've used early voting, and it's a ranked voting situation (equivalent to realignments in the physical caucus). But it does not seem to be an obligatory ranked system: you can choose to rank "up to" 5. Some people will be confused. Others will rank all five, others just vote for 1.

And yes, if you're a Republican, you can simply change to Democrat at the poll.

[brooklynite]

16. Operators are standing by...

NDP has hired a 200 person call center to be available if the reporting tool doesn’t work.

[malchickiwick]

17. What do you mean by 75 percent and 60 percent???

First off, how do you know what percentage of the total caucus ended up caucusing early? There's no way to determine that until we see how many people show up to caucus live in a few hours.

Secondly, why would it be 60 percent after the debate and 75 percent after the Bernie news? Both events took place after the early caucus closed, so who are these mysterious 15 percent of voters who were able to caucus somehow between the debate and the "revelation," even though the early caucus had ended?

[CalFione]

19. I thought early voting ended on Thursday

also.. I am basing the 75% on the highest total they ever had in Nevada... about 115k in 2008.

[MrsCoffee]

29. That "socialism" was brought to you by a capitalist.

FDR was no socialist.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

22. I like how post leans on "75 percent already voted"

Lean hell a crutch

[Jersey Devil]

23. The revelation came now but the Russian support came over a month ago

so that 75% was affected by it.

[malchickiwick]

24. Ah, I see, but no, the early caucus here ended Tuesday, the day before the debate unfortunately.

I do think Senator Warren's performance might have garnered support among those who went early.

Also, 75 percent of 115K is 86,250, and I believe the total of early caucus ballots was more around 74K, though I can't find a cite at the moment. If, for instance, only about half of caucus-goers went early, we could set a new record here today.

[CalFione]

25. Ok, to be more precise, is it fair to say that

a majority voted before the debate and the Russia revelation?

[Evergreen Emerald]

26. That is a shame.

Our Democracy is on the brink of disaster and instead of working hard to put out the fire, we poor gasoline on it.

At this point, it appears that Americans deserve what they vote for.

[squirecam]

30. Amy is going to stay in until after Super Tuesday

There is a debate Tuesday

Minnesota votes and everyone else needs her to win it. Bernie is second and if she drops out he might win it.

[CalFione]

31. good point. Need her to prevent a Bernie win in Minn