New Texas Poll: Sanders and Biden tied

[cannabis_flower]

I received an email from Progress Texas:


Progress Texas
Hi Tammera,

On our March 3 Primary Election, Texas will be one of the first states to see Mike Bloomberg on the ballot. We wanted to hear from Texans what his impact would be on the race, so we commissioned Public Policy Polling to help us learn more. Below is a sneak peak of what the polls tell us:

Biden and Sanders lead the field
Warren is the strongest second choice
Bloomberg has the worst approval/disapproval rating
This is the first set of poll data collected since last weekend’s Nevada caucuses. The poll, taken from Monday, February 24th to Tuesday, February 25th, asked 1,045 likely Texas Democratic voters for their opinions. For the full analysis with charts, click below!

https://progresstexas.actionkit.com/go/51756?t=6&akid=8878%2E26489%2EAKesvf

[honest.abe]

1. Biden only needs a tie in these big states to stop Sanders.

If we go to a brokered convention and the totals are relatively close Biden comes out our nominee.

[uponit7771]

2. THIS !!! The big one is California, If Biden can get a share in California then he looks good for...

... the rest of the primaries save the kneecapping by Bloomberg.

[honest.abe]

3. Yes, California is huge and I do not believe that new Change Research poll.

They seem to have a strong bias against Biden and pro-bias to Sanders and Warren. Also a big win in SC will change what happens on Super Tuesday although many have already voted in CA. I still think Biden comes up in the upper teens or low 20's which is good enough.

[uponit7771]

4. +1, ... Kornacki, as much as I despise his focus on meaningless national numbers, showed Biden ...

... support among older dems to be rock solid. Older dems, younger dems are less reliable vote and Sanders isn't bringing out new voters even when some of the voting is higher than 08 and 16.

I'm thinking that's the inner data that needs to be focused on, Biden is going to get the more reliable and practical vote

[honest.abe]

5. Let it be so!

[ripcord]

6. What if Biden doesn't get any delegates in California?

With less than a week to go before Super Tuesday several polls are showing Sanders as the only one above 15%.

[uponit7771]

8. Looking at RCP it looks like it'll be uphill for anyone coming out of CA with 0 votes but this can .

... be made up later with winner take all primaries.

Once the focus get put on Sanders I don't think his past can take it, there's some weird crap there that's not going to play well in swing states and that's where Biden needs to focus his electability attacks on Sanders.

[Moderateguy]

12. Most of them will get CA delegates

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article239734578.html

271 are awarded per congressional district so as long as you get 15% in a district you’re getting some delegates

144 delegates are awarded state-wide so the candidate needs to get 15% statewide to get any delegates. There is a possibility that all 144 of these could go to Sanders if he’s the only one over 15%

[fallout87]

7. Wishful thinking

If by close, you mean Biden having more delegates, I agree. But if Bernie has more, how do you justify robbing him of the nomination? And vice versa for Biden

[honest.abe]

9. What's the point of a brokered convention if it always goes to the candidate with a plurality??

[uponit7771]

10. Electability, Sanders 3 month numbers in swing states are luke warm and inside MOE with Trump

... and those number historically don't change after the convention.

That's what super delegates have to look at, down ballot and swing states.

Pete is correct, if Sanders down ballot was sKrong those 40 congress persons would've been on his back by now but they're running away from him.

[fallout87]

11. Polls?

Yeah we go off of voting, but polls. The only poll that matters is at the ballot box

[Polybius]

13. They would never pick Biden if Sanders is ahead

They would have to compromise, with someone to the left of Biden and right of Bernie. It would be Warren.