Biden doing great in RCP average

[at140]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Biden 29.9
Sanders 21.4
Harris 9.7
O'Rourke 8.9
Warren 5.7
Booker 3.6
Buttigieg 2.6
Klobuchar 1.7
Yang 1.0
Castro 1.0
Gillibrand 0.9
Hickenlooper 0.7
Inslee 0.7



Biden looks runaway leader in this Hill poll......

Biden 36
Sanders 19
Harris 9
Beto 7
Warren 6

[Gothmog]

1. Early State Democrats Stand With Biden As Touching Scandal Falls Flat

Link to tweet

Progressives and advisers to Bernie Sanders hoped that they could keep Biden out of the race with a scandal that centers around personal space. The scandal though never really dominated the news like they hoped it or accelerated enough to damage the former vice president’s potential candidacy. Biden is still leading in the way too early polling, and he has seen no erosion in his support since the touching scandal started.

The challenge that any Democratic candidate faces is that Joe Biden has deep roots and a huge national organization of party officials. Biden is beloved by the party rank and file, and it is going to take more than what his political adversaries tried to turn into a scandal to stop his candidacy.

After seeing the behavior of porn star paying off, Access Hollywood tape accused sexual assaulter Trump, Joe Biden’s behavior doesn’t rise to the level of disqualifying in the minds of many Democrats.

Democratic voters may choose a different nominee, but Joe Biden is showing why he is going to be hard to beat in 2020.

[Demsrule86]

2. Thanks Gothmog Win or lose Biden is on of the good ones.

[Cha]

4. Gracias Goth!

[Cha]

3. Too bad for those

trying to take him down.

[Gothmog]

5. Biden is the most electable candidate right now

While I am undecided, I do think that Joe Biden is the most electable candidate.

Link to tweet

Biden has been in the public eye since the 1970s, and unlike Hillary Clinton, who claimed the public never really knew her, voters feel like they know Biden pretty darn well. Many voters don’t remember anything before his vice presidency, his demonstrably warm relationship with President Barack Obama, his remarkable dignity after the death of his beloved son Beau, and his emotional goodbye to the late senator John McCain. He has established a level of emotional intimacy with voters that few politicians attain. He’s the chatty next-door neighbor, the avuncular relative and the co-worker who remembers everyone’s birthday.....

They are also unlikely to decide he’s not progressive enough. Being vice president to the most progressive president we’ve had (including his role in seemingly pushing Obama forward on gay marriage) has its advantages. Moreover, the media periodically lapses into the delusion that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are representative of the entire party.

The recent Monmouth poll of Iowa voters is instructive: Biden not only leads, but has a 78 percent favorability rating and support from the kind of Democrats who show up in primaries — moderate, older voters. Biden has support from 44 percent of seniors and 35 percent of self-described moderate and conservative Democrats. Among lower income/working-class voters whom Democrats have been desperate to attract, he gets 38 percent. Those kind of voters — not self-identified socialists, not Bernie activists on social media — are numerous and dependable voters. And they’re not exactly the kind to punish him for hugging people in distress.

The most important hurdle for Biden and for his competitors will be convincing voters he can beat President Trump. Right now, Biden has a big advantage. “While issue positions are important to Iowa Democrats, the overwhelming majority (64%) prefer to have a nominee who would be strong against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues,” the pollsters found. “If they were forced to choose, just 24% say they would favor a candidate who they are aligned with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump. Biden garners more support among voters who prioritize beating Trump (33%) than he does among those who are looking for issue alignment (15%).”

I agree with the premise of this piece. I know Joe Biden and I like Joe Biden. The polling indicates that Joe is the most electable candidate.

[Hortensis]

6. A CNN article says, even controlling for name recognition

Biden is doing well.

One instant giveaway of how well he is doing is to compare it to how other candidates who have similar name recognition are doing. Look no further than recent polls of the Iowa caucuses taken by Monmouth University and the New Hampshire primary by St. Anselm College. Both were conducted after a rough couple of weeks for Biden in the news, as he faced allegations of unwanted touching.

Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts all have near-universal name recognition in both states. Do they have the same amount of support in the polls? No.

Biden holds clear leads over Sanders and Warren in both polls. In the Iowa poll, he's ahead 27% to Sanders' 16% to Warren's 7%. In the New Hampshire poll, Biden is up 23% to Sanders' 16% to Warren's 9%.

Go West and Biden's lead holds, per the recent California primary preference poll taken by Quinnipiac University. Biden, at 26%, is beating Sanders, 18%, and Sen. Kamala Harris of California, 16%. In other words, the former vice president is beating the man who earned 46% of the 2016 California presidential primary vote and a very well-known senator in her own backyard.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/12/politics/joe-biden-polling-lead-analysis/index.html

The argument that his lead is mainly name recognition and will dissolve as others become better known is clearly flawed. It's real at this point, and if he were unable to hold onto it it would be for other reasons.

[MineralMan]

7. Just wait until he actually announces his candidacy!

He'll get a jump from that, I think.

[oasis]

12. More than a mere "jump", a giant leap.

[BlueFlorida]

8. As one by one the less performing candidates drop out

they will be endorsing the front runner or the next candidate who is not Bernie. So Biden's lead will actually widen as time goes by.

No candidate dropping out is EVER going to endorse Bernie -- not even Elizabeth Warren.

Bernie's numbers will tank when the following is brought up in the debates:

1. Tax returns and revealing minutiae in them.
2. Essays
3. Booing of John Lewis and Bernie's silence about it.
4. How Bernie never seriously campaigned for the nominee and promoted OR instead.
5. Old Towne Media -- where did the money go?
6. Demise of Burlington College
7. Votes against Russian sanctions
8. His campaign leadership's advocating for Jill Stein

There are many more. The last time, Bernie got a pass. This time he will be pummeled. Candidates polling low will have everything to gain by attacking Bernie and nothing to lose.

[FakeNoose]

9. I think you're right about this

... and I do not want to see the Democratic Party choosing Bernie Sanders!

I'm leaning for Biden myself, but I'm waiting until he announces his candidacy. Before I make a final decision I've pledged to listen to every Dem candidate and I'm trying to do that. However I believe that Joe Biden could easily win Pennsylvania (my state) and he'll do well in the Midwestern states too.

The Democratic Party has a wealth of great candidates right now, but we have to consider how they will be received in the states where we have a chance to beat Chump. It breaks my heart that so many Democrats are giving their love & money to Sanders. He's not a Democrat and he cannot win in the general election.

[oasis]

10. Joe's numbers are about to go through the roof very shortly. nt

[Scurrilous]

11. K&R