Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

andym

(5,423 posts)
Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:12 PM Mar 2020

538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention

1 in 4 chance for Bernie to win outright
1 in 7 chance for Biden to win outright
less than 1 in 100 chance for any of the others to win outright

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So what happens is that to a large extent the convention will become like a caucus-- with inviable candidate thresholds etc, on subsequent ballots. There is one difference: superdelegates could play a role as well as on the second ballot there would be 764 (771?) delegates added to the pool-- which would presumably raise the threshold for winning. It might be interesting if superdelegates decided to sit out subsequent rounds, forcing the campaigns and their elected delegates to negotiate.

Updated:
1991 delegates required on first ballot
2375.5 delegates required on second ballot
source: ballotpedia
https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention
are these numbers correct?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention (Original Post) andym Mar 2020 OP
The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345 Moderateguy Mar 2020 #1
OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991 andym Mar 2020 #2
That's exactly what I said. Laelth Mar 2020 #3
Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538. andym Mar 2020 #5
538 has been a hot mess for years Politicub Mar 2020 #4
 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
1. The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345
Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:14 PM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

andym

(5,423 posts)
2. OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991
Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:17 PM
Mar 2020

so the superdelegates do raise the requirement.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

andym

(5,423 posts)
5. Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538.
Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:37 PM
Mar 2020

Impressive.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Politicub

(12,158 posts)
4. 538 has been a hot mess for years
Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:53 PM
Mar 2020

I think it's only there as clickbait now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»538 now predicts a 3 in 5...