Democratic Primaries

andym

(5,962 posts) Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:12 PM Mar 2020

538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention

1 in 4 chance for Bernie to win outright
1 in 7 chance for Biden to win outright
less than 1 in 100 chance for any of the others to win outright

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So what happens is that to a large extent the convention will become like a caucus-- with inviable candidate thresholds etc, on subsequent ballots. There is one difference: superdelegates could play a role as well as on the second ballot there would be 764 (771?) delegates added to the pool-- which would presumably raise the threshold for winning. It might be interesting if superdelegates decided to sit out subsequent rounds, forcing the campaigns and their elected delegates to negotiate.

Updated:
1991 delegates required on first ballot
2375.5 delegates required on second ballot
source: ballotpedia
https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention
are these numbers correct?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention (Original Post) andym Mar 2020 OP

The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345 Moderateguy Mar 2020 #1

OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991 andym Mar 2020 #2

That's exactly what I said. Laelth Mar 2020 #3

Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538. andym Mar 2020 #5

538 has been a hot mess for years Politicub Mar 2020 #4

Moderateguy

(945 posts)

1. The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345

Reply to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:14 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

andym

(5,962 posts)

2. OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991

Reply to Moderateguy (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:17 PM

Mar 2020

so the superdelegates do raise the requirement.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Laelth

(32,017 posts)

3. That's exactly what I said.

Reply to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:50 PM

Mar 2020

Here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287605395

-Laelth

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

andym

(5,962 posts)

5. Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538.

Reply to Laelth (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 04:37 PM

Mar 2020

Impressive.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Politicub

(12,309 posts)

4. 538 has been a hot mess for years

Reply to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:53 PM

Mar 2020

I think it's only there as clickbait now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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