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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:12 PM

 

538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention

1 in 4 chance for Bernie to win outright
1 in 7 chance for Biden to win outright
less than 1 in 100 chance for any of the others to win outright

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So what happens is that to a large extent the convention will become like a caucus-- with inviable candidate thresholds etc, on subsequent ballots. There is one difference: superdelegates could play a role as well as on the second ballot there would be 764 (771?) delegates added to the pool-- which would presumably raise the threshold for winning. It might be interesting if superdelegates decided to sit out subsequent rounds, forcing the campaigns and their elected delegates to negotiate.

Updated:
1991 delegates required on first ballot
2375.5 delegates required on second ballot
source: ballotpedia
https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention
are these numbers correct?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply 538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention (Original post)
andym Mar 2020 OP
Moderateguy Mar 2020 #1
andym Mar 2020 #2
Laelth Mar 2020 #3
andym Mar 2020 #5
Politicub Mar 2020 #4

Response to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:14 PM

1. The threshold starting on the second ballot is 2345

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:17 PM

2. OK that makes sense-- the first ballot threshold is 1991

 

so the superdelegates do raise the requirement.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:50 PM

3. That's exactly what I said.

 

Here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287605395

-Laelth
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Laelth (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 03:37 PM

5. Your independent analysis is very much in tune with 538.

 

Impressive.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to andym (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 02:53 PM

4. 538 has been a hot mess for years

 

I think it's only there as clickbait now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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