A serious question, why is Bloomberg helping Sanders?

[LaurenOlimina]

I don't think it is kooky, conspiratorial or hateful to ask why Bloomberg is still in this race when it hurts Biden and helps Sanders.

The Atlantic discussed this this past week. Last night they asked it on MSNBC. Why is Bloomberg still in this when it helps Sanders?

Bloomberg is supposed to be smart. Bloomberg definitely hates Sanders. Bloomberg knows he is taking resources and votes from Biden. Here is a recent CNBC story. If those things are true, why is he still in?

Is it ego? Does he really want to be president? Is he going to drop out next week? Is he helping Sanders?

It is strange to me.

[DanTex]

1. LOL. He's not. He and his campaign are digging up whatever smears they can and posting them

on twitter and running anti-Bernie ads everywhere.

He's not helping Bernie, even indirectly. Having a crowded field hurts Bernie. If it were down to two candidates, Bernie would get a majority of the delegates. The anti-Bernie play is to try to split the vote in a bunch of pieces to prevent Bernie from getting a majority, and then use a brokered convention to nominate someone who has less pledged delegates than Bernie.

[LaurenOlimina]

2. I'm not sure with Bloomberg.

I don't think his voters overlap much with Sanders. I know Sanders would get a TON of voters if Pete or Warren drop out. Not as sure about Bloomberg.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. If Sanders doesn't go in to the convention

with a majority of delegates or at least say 45%, then he isn’t entitled to the nomination. At that point, it would mean more people prefer a candidate other than him. The nomination would probably go to a unity candidate, perhaps Warren.

[DanTex]

17. It's not about being "entitled", it's just a question of whether the delegates and supers

respect the will of the voters on a second ballot. Obviously, if nobody gets a majority, then "more people prefer another candidate" applies to all the candidates, not just Bernie. It's not like if Bernie gets 35 and someone else gets 25, then somehow the 25 candidate is more appealing to voters than Bernie.

The delegates can do whatever they want on a second ballot, according to the rules. The problem is, if they don't respect the will of the voters, then party unity will be shot, and Trump will likely be re-elected. And, unfortunately, at least according to that NYTimes article, some superdelegates have said they are willing to damage the party in order to prevent Bernie from being the nominee.

[Turin_C3PO]

20. I hope we don't have a brokered convention.

I’d rather Sanders go into the convention with a majority instead of a plurality. No matter the result, if we have a brokered convention one side or the other will nurse hard feelings in the general election.

[DanTex]

23. I agree with that. Either Bernie or Joe with a majority.

Looks like Pete’s out. If a few others follow soon, we could get there. Problem is I think Warren and maybe Bloomberg also thinks he/she could come out of a brokered convention with the nomination. Warren by being a compromise and Bloomberg by sheer force of money.

[AncientGeezer]

26. We've been over this....

The 2nd rd isn't about the will of Berners....1991 DELEGATES...to win..have that or go home.

[ripcord]

27. And if the party splits no big deal right?

[AncientGeezer]

31. We aren't going to split...UNLESS it's you all splitting....then that's on you.

The rules were agreed to by all candidates running...1991 needed win(NOT the most)....any less then we go to R2... not 1800, 1950, not 1972.....1991 wins.
If Sanders has that going in he wins....if he doesn't....and he won't...then rules will be followed...rules he agreed to.

[ripcord]

46. Follow the rules no matter what the outcome, that's just scary

After being screwed by the DNC in 2016 I think Sander's supporters have a right to question the motives here. I'm just amazed everyone things rejecting someone with a large lead is going to turn out well.

[DanTex]

28. Yes we have. And the delegates can choose to respect the will of the voters.

Or they can choose to ignore it and hand reelection to Trump by fracturing the party. I agree, it’s up to them, not Bernie or you or me or anyone else.

[ehrnst]

34. "fracturing the party?"

On May 29, 2016, Sanders said superdelegates had the “very grave responsibility to make sure that Trump [is not] elected president of the United States. Vote for the strongest candidate.

And even as Clinton secured the Democratic nomination the following week, Sanders continued to push for superdelegates to vote to override Clinton’s pledged delegate majority.

Told on June 7, 2016, that his superdelegate convention push would defy history and the will of the voters, Sanders said, “Defying history is what this campaign has been about.””

Bernie Sanders pushed for a contested convention in 2016. Now he wants to avoid one. Feb 27, 2020

[ehrnst]

35. "it's just a question of whether the delegates and supers respect the will of the voters"

On May 29, 2016, Sanders said superdelegates had the “very grave responsibility to make sure that Trump [is not] elected president of the United States. Vote for the strongest candidate.

And even as Clinton secured the Democratic nomination the following week, Sanders continued to push for superdelegates to vote to override Clinton’s pledged delegate majority.

Told on June 7, 2016, that his superdelegate convention push would defy history and the will of the voters, Sanders said, “Defying history is what this campaign has been about.””

Bernie Sanders pushed for a contested convention in 2016. Now he wants to avoid one. Feb 27, 2020

[Celerity]

22. Glad to see you broach this. Lets say Bernie has 1791 pledged delegates (45%) for the first ballot,

where 1991 is needed.

It will then go to a second ballot, as there is zero chance that Biden can hit 1991 if Sanders has 1791, as that leaves only 197 delegates won by ALL the others, and there is no way a combined Pete, Amy, Warren, and Bloomberg end up with a total of 197, that will never happen. They will have hundred and hundreds more than that, but on the first ballot, they are locked in to vote for their candidate.


So, we move onto the 2nd ballot. At this point, the magic 1991 number now goes up to 2375, as now the Superdelegates can vote and are included.

If no one gets 1,991 votes on the first ballot, then things could get more complicated. This is the scenario people refer to when they use the phrase “contested convention” or “brokered convention.”

In this situation, there would be a second ballot. And on the second ballot, there are votes from two sets of delegates:

Votes from the 3,979 pledged delegates, who are allowed to support a different candidate on the second ballot if they so choose

An additional 771 votes from “automatic delegates,” commonly known as superdelegates

To win the nomination, a candidate still must earn a majority of the votes on a given ballot. In this case, that means she or he must amass more than 2,375 pledged and automatic delegates. (In the second and subsequent rounds, a few automatic delegates get only half votes; the D.N.C. says the magic number is 2,375.5, which this time is not rounded up.)

It is theoretically possible that the nomination process would extend through multiple ballots until one candidate hits the magic number (2,375.5) and prevails. One thing to keep in mind is that delegates do not need to stay with the candidate to whom they were originally allocated and can move around.

This all means Bernie needs to gain 584 MORE delegates. All the pledged delegates are now unlocked and can switch, plus the SD's can voted for whoever they desire. I do not see him getting more than 150-200 MAX (if that) of the SD's. Most are vehemently against him.

So he needs around 400 to 450 or so MORE.

Even if ALL of Warren's delegates go to Bernie (that will never happen), she will more than likely have only around 150 to 200 total delegates.

So he will STILL be 200 to 300 SHORT of 2375.

I do not see hardly any of the other candidates' delegates going to Bernie (other than Warren's and not all of hers will), and Bernie MAY lose a few himself. His campaign and social media and far left sites have savagely attacked Pete, Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg for ages. There is a LOT of animosity there.

In fact, Bernie could roll in with 47%, or even 48% and the breakdown still works. Biden was now said he will contest at the convention even if Bernie has a plurality, and IF Bernie does end up with 45%, it will be next to impossible for Biden to end up with more than 37%, 38% or so, MAX, due to the others running. He likely would be in the low 30's.

That said, IF they all rally around Biden on the 2nd ballot, you could have a 45% to 47, 48% Bernie (in terms of actual voted on pledged delegates) having the nomination ripped away from him. IF that happens, the party will rip itself apart and Trump will surely win. We are headed into dangerous, treacherous waters. I REALLY hope Biden can somehow pass up Sanders in terms of a plurality, and even better, somehow hit 1991 (probably impossible unless Sanders collapses and ALL but Joe drop out ASAP.)

[Turin_C3PO]

24. I think we lose to Trump

if any candidate goes into the convention with only a plurality. Like I said above, I’d rather Sanders go in with a clear majority as opposed to a plurality. I wouldn’t like it but it would be less destructive to us as a party. Hopefully, Biden pulls off a clear majority.

[Celerity]

25. Pete just dropped out, so now Biden's chances have shot up to catch Bernie in terms of a plurality

We will know a lot more after Super Tuesday, but if Biden has a clear plurality, I so hope we can take the hit.

It is utterly imperative that Klobuchar and Bloomberg drop out after ST.

[LaurenOlimina]

5. You know what, you are right!

Check out this poll of second choices.

Bloomberg votes would go to Sanders in large numbers.

"""
BLOOMBERG SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
32%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Pete Buttigieg
15
"""

He would help Joe and Bernie both by dropping out.

Pete?

"""
BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
21%
Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren
19%
Michael Bloomberg
17%
"""

I stand corrected.

[LaurenOlimina]

10. DanTex is right.

Bloomberg voters would split equally between Sanders and Biden, especially if Pete drops out.

[DanTex]

15. Thanks! The polling, for about a month now, has shown that Bernie would win a

one-to-one contest against any of the other candidates. That could change, of course, but as of right now, that's the reality.

The media has been pushing the "Bernie versus non-Bernie" narrative very hard, but there's no data to back that. The data shows that the crowded field is actually hurting Bernie by preventing his plurality from turning into a majority.

The candidates and their campaigns know this, because they can read polls. That's why there are rumors going around of the Biden campaign specifically telling other campaigns not to drop out, in order to siphon votes and delegates away from Bernie.

[LaurenOlimina]

18. Wow.

I totally get that a Pete, or Amy voter is anti-biden in general, but I had thought Bloomberg was a desperation play SPECIFICALLY to hurt Sanders. I didn't realize how much het hurt Sanders by staying in.

[AncientGeezer]

33. He can't souce the claim.....

[LaurenOlimina]

37. He did

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
""""
Who voters are considering

Even though voters can have only one first-choice option, many consider multiple candidates at the same time. Candidates with higher percentages of possible supporters may emerge as breakout stars later in the cycle. Below, we have calculated the share of primary voters who are considering voting for each candidate.

CANDIDATECONSIDERING, %
Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders
46
Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren
43
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
43
Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg
28
Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg
25
Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar
22
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
11
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard
6
""""

[AncientGeezer]

39. Dan didn't source it....you tried...wait..are you Dan2?

[LaurenOlimina]

41. No, he posted that and I picked it up.

[AncientGeezer]

32. Show your work....

[ehrnst]

44. Smears and rumors? Is that where you've landed now after

multiple screeds on how the media is "smearing" Bernie by reporting his very own words about releasing his comprehensive medical records?

[Demsrule86]

42. I don't believe it...I see those polls but I said I would vote for Bloomberg if Biden failed.

I don't think his votes go to Sanders. And I do believe Bloomberg hates Sanders...we shall see what happens.

[LaurenOlimina]

43. Polls don't mean as much as they once did.

[lapfog_1]

4. I would guess that he has surrounded himself

with well paid advisors who keep telling him that he can literally buy the nomination... that he should stay in until the convention and in the likely hood of a brokered convention the Democratic establishment will turn to him as the nominee. And that Biden is too weak to take out Sanders before the convention.

Their paychecks depend on him remaining in the race... and his ego convinces him that this is the right thing to do.

But that is just a guess, maybe there are other more conspiratorial explanations.

[LaurenOlimina]

7. That sounds right.

Billionaires live in bubbles.

[jmg257]

6. Why is there any question as the whether Bloomberg

Wants to be president? Is he running just for fun?

Does he really care
If Biden or Bernie, or Tulsi, are the candidate if it is not him??

[LaurenOlimina]

8. I think Sanders/Warren was a major motivation for him.

It threatens some of his billions.

[jmg257]

9. Now that I can agree with. Nt

[emmaverybo]

11. Don't think it is kooky to seriously wonder about that.

[LaurenOlimina]

13. A thread on this topic got removed for being Kooky earlier.

Who knows why.

[still_one]

12. I think that is exactly what it is, his ego

[LaurenOlimina]

14. I believe that too.

[treestar]

16. It's strange

that anyone would even prefer Bloomberg to Biden because Bloomberg is just as old. And has no foreign policy experience. And is just buying his way in. So how does that appeal to Democrats in any large numbers?

[LaurenOlimina]

19. He is also loathed for stop and frisk.

There are bodies behind that. The social justice community a BLM know that.

He got shunned at a church in Selma today.


I can't see why anyone supports him.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

21. Bloomberg is positioned to potentially take a lot of delegates on Super Tuesday

Honestly, I think his strategy is to wait for Biden to make an unrecoverable blunder. Otherwise, he's hoping to play Kingmaker ar a brokered convention.

[Dem4Life1102]

29. He's on a vanity trip

That’s why.

[LaurenOlimina]

30. Billionaires attract yes men like a porch light attracts bugs.

[Blue_true]

36. Bloomberg IS smart. I believe he takes his shot on Super Tuesday and if that doesn't work

for him, he is out immediately. The statement that he made that he would give the nominee his campaign offices is some evidence that he will eit quickly if he doesn't do well in the first contests.

[Codeine]

38. Because he started to believe his own press.

The only thing larger than his bank account is his ego. He’s convinced himself he’s running for President rather than being an irritant.

[TTUBatfan2008]

40. $500 million...

If you spent $500 million betting on yourself for Super Tuesday, would you drop out before the voting happens? Steyer was the same way with a lot of money spent in South Carolina. He dropped out after the voting proved to him that he was not viable. Given the amount of money Bloomberg has spent, I don't think anyone can blame him for wanting to see how the voting turns out for him on Tuesday.

[customerserviceguy]

45. He's trying to help himself

He sensed that Joe Biden was weak, and that he could swoop in for Super Tuesday and win enough delegates to put the nomination in play for him. Pete Buttigieg was smart enough to figure out that only Joe Biden can beat Bernie, Bloomie and Trump, so he dropped out.

I'm waiting for Sen. Warren to come to the same conclusion. Maybe if she comes in third in Massachusetts, that will be the handwriting on the wall.