****BRAND SPANKING NEW MICHIGAN POLL**** Biden 54% Sanders 33%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a 21% lead over
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in Michigan’s Democratic Presidential Primary Election
according to the latest Mitchell Poll. Biden has 54%, Sanders 33%, with Warren 3%, Bloomberg,
Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Steyer at 1% and “someone else” at 2%. Another 5% are undecided.
The IVR (automated) poll of N=602 likely voters in Tuesday’s Democratic Presidential Primary
Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on Sunday, March 8, 2020
and has a Margin of Error of + or – 4% at the 95% level of confidence.
“With former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar all dropping out and endorsing Biden, it is clear that Biden has gained
most of their voters. The fact that the other “Progressive,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, has not
endorsed Sanders has hurt the Vermont senator. The race changed dramatically after Biden’s
South Carolina victory and his ensuing huge number of victories on Super Tuesday, a week
before the Michigan Primary. Sanders has also been hurt by an almost constant onslaught by
moderate Democrats saying that Sanders is too liberal to win. Sanders won by 1.5% four years
ago, but he is not going to capture that magic this year,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Dem_Pres_Primary_Press_Release_3-8-20.pdf

[spooky3]

1. This does not surprise me at all. Sanders benefited from sexism and

some other factors in 2016 that don't apply this year. I agree with Kornacki who predicted a very bleak March 10 for Sanders across all of the states.

[UncleNoel]

8. Whoa! That's the kindof lead to put the Sanders' campaign to rest...

Thaks Spooky!!

[R B Garr]

18. Yes, I was just commenting on that Kornacki segment.

He was very liberal with Sanders wins, but the huge Biden blowouts look to shut Sanders out.

[StevieM]

40. James Comey's antics and the fake email "scandal" was the most important factor in 2016.

Many of the people who voted against her in the 2016 primaries had been her supporters in the 2008 primaries. The nonsense about her emails spooked a lot of people, either because they bought into that absurd story, or because seeing her beaten up over that, along with the Benghazi conspiracy theories, made her feel like a different person to them than she had previously been. And, of course, some people didn't buy into it but they knew that many of their friends, family members and neighbors had.

[onetexan]

57. Right, Russian propaganda, sexism & Comey all contributed to Hillary's loss

Im still in pain over 2016, & mad as hell.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Joe...over performing...sanders under performing

I hope by Wednesday morning it’s obvious even to the sanders campaign who the nominee is going to be.

So so ready for this to be over

[SunSeeker]

20. +1

[onetexan]

27. Agree,looks to be another rout so Bernie needs to pack it in afterwards

No use dragging this out and wasting resources so Biden can prep for the general.

[Skya Rhen]

3. Let's do this, Joe!

[Legends303]

4. Oh if Biden wins Michigan by 21 points

This race will be over.

[GulfCoast66]

12. Yep. Even if Bernie stays in, Joe should just ignore him and start running against Trump i

If this holds up.


Looks like We Democrats have made our decision. And if Michigan does not do it I will help Florida finish the deal. And my wife which I can’t believe. Even though she has voted Democratic for several cycles I thought she was still registered R. And we almost Never talk politics. It does not drive her like me. Imagine my joy when I was telling her that she does not need to vote in our closed primary and she casually told me she had changed her registration and will vote for Joe. We have been together 33 years.

[onetexan]

28. Your wife is a good woman!

Thank her for us

[GulfCoast66]

34. Well. She might not be happy at me sharing. Even on an anonymous forum.

Her thoughts are her own. As are mine. Reason we have stuck for over 3 decades and look to make it for the duration. But you are right. She is a good woman. Smarter, and way better looking than me! I’ve been proud that she chose me for 33 years.

Have a nice evening.

[wishstar]

49. The Biden surge uniting people is the best news happening right now

[NCProgressive]

5. Go Joe !! KnR

[GulfCoast66]

6. If last Tuesday was an indication you can add 10 points to Joe.

But things could change. I doubt they will.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Sanders could still take this based on turnout

I'm awaiting Rachel Bitecofer's calculations

[spooky3]

11. you're evil :-)

[RandySF]

9. The polling firm gets a D rating on 538

and I recall in 2018 when they had the governor's race much closer than it was. Wish it was true, though.

[still_one]

14. Unfortunately I agree with you Randy. Michigan is going to be no cake walk for Joe.

[herding cats]

35. They do, but it gives credence to to previous poll from Michigan which is higher rated.

It's the one by the Glengariff Group Inc. which is B/C rated.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2020/2020/03/04/poll-where-michigan-voters-stand-ahead-of-the-2020-democratic-primary-election/

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287629200#post5

(Edit to add: for those who don't read down beyond what they want to see, this was a phone poll and not an online poll. I'm still not sure where that silliness came from).

It may not have been an outlier considering this recent poll. Actually, it probably wasn't.

[NYMinute]

10. ...

[UncleNoel]

17. LOL! Perfect graphic!

[Sogo]

22. LOL!!

[Sloumeau]

26. ROFL

[Lexblues]

13. The Democratic voters are ready to shut this down

This is not 2016. People are dying. We are sick and scared of Trump. The time for fun and games are over. We need to come together and take on Trump. Michigan voters are going to send a clear message to Bernie...LAND THE FUCKING PLANE AND END THIS!

[PatrickforO]

38. Nice thought.

I agree. It is time for us to get on board for the general election.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

15. This could explain the sudden negative garbage spewing from Bernie campaign

[highplainsdem]

16. K&R!

[SunSeeker]

19. Wow. Go Joe!!

[Sogo]

21. I hope coronavirus scare doesn't suppress the vote....

Just sayin'....

[ucrdem]

24. It does, but it also helps Biden, big time.

That was reported on NPR on Super Tuesday.

[Sogo]

30. I had to correct a Facebook "friend" Bernie supporter

who posted that "dementia" clip tonight. It's the exact same clip that Trump tweeted! I had just seen the replay of the talk in KC where Joe said that, and so I let him know what the rest of the sentence was that the clip leaves off. Doing Trump's work for him!

[Sloumeau]

25. DemocratSinceBirth, thanks for posting this! :)

Oh, a blowout in Michigan would be sooooooo sweet!

[Jarqui]

29. Compared to the 2016 exit poll for Michigan primary

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/mi/dem

The recent poll has 59% women vs 55% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 27% blacks vs 21% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 14% age 18-29 vs 19% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 29% age 65+ vs 20% in 2016 - which favors Biden

The demographics in this poll slant towards Biden
Therefore, the poll probably overstates his lead.

The problem for Sanders is that he needs to win Michigan BIG to keep his campaign alive because he's probably going to lose Missouri and Mississippi big and may lose Washington (polling behind), North Dakota (polling behind) & Idaho (whose Democratic politicians endorsed Biden 100%)

So even though this poll may be slanted demographically to favor Biden, there's no way you could adjust it and extrapolate a lead for Sanders because the margins for Biden are simply too large.

Michigan is quite important. Since taking office, Trump's approval in the state has fallen 18 points
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
So Michigan is a prime state to flip back to blue.
It now has a Democratic governor so it is harder to steal the vote.

If Biden wins Michigan, he can also claim having the best shot to win Pennsylvania since he was born in Scranton, PA and those two states along with Hillary's blue states get Biden to 269 Electoral votes.

If Sanders doesn't win Tuesday, it get really hard for him to win anything in the rest of March. At that point, he's down too far to come back.

[PatrickforO]

39. Your observation on MI is right on.

If Biden wins decisively, it will put Bernie out of the race.

[Steven Maurer]

31. Caution: fivethirtyeight.com gives them a "D" grade for accuracy

Not putting too much credence in this one.

[Tarheel_Dem]

32. Those numbers look fantastic, but I still say MI will be close, and Sanders may even win by a couple

of points, but it will be a wash (delegate wise). Biden trounces in MS & MO. Sanders will probably win WA, although it won't be a blowout, and let's face it, BS needs blowouts now.

[Cha]

42. I feel the same Tarheel.. we've been

disappointed by polls before and this looks too good to be true..

Bookmark!

[Tarheel_Dem]

44. I couldn't agree more. I understand the enthusiasm, but overconfidence is not a good look.

We've all witnessed the twists and turns of this primary season, and I think it best to keep wild predictions in check, and hope for the best.

[Cha]

45. I'm totally in

apprehensive mode.. been disappointed too many times. Best for me to worry!

You should have seen me on election nights for Obama.. curled up in fetal positions till I could breathe again!

[Tarheel_Dem]

46. I was exactly the same in '08 & '12. It is nerve racking to say the least. n/t

[Cha]

47. I remember jumpiing up and down..

so happy Gore had "won" in Florida.. and then crashing to Earth in '01.. Devastating! Like 2016 only 2016 was much more worse than anything.

And, then thusly DU was born!

[Tarheel_Dem]

48. I went to bed in 2016 thinking Hillary had this in the bag. Imagine my shock the next morning.

I was horrified, and the theft of 2000 still rings in my head as well. I don't watch election or primary night coverage, and I usually steer clear of DU until the next day. I try to put off my anguish for as long as I can. I was astonished & pleasantly surprised, the next evening, to learn that Biden had cleaned up on ST. I hope he has a similar victory this week.

[Cha]

50. I'm in that boat now.. I haven't been

able to watch debates since bush VS Gore, either.. they ruined that for me!

How devastating for you to wake up to Hillary's "loss". I felt like I was gut punched waking up to Kerry's "loss" in 2004. My work friends called me to see if I were alright.

I was on DU for Biden's night.. couldn't believe it, though.. Too Surreal.. still processing!

[Tarheel_Dem]

52. Quite frankly, I expected BS to do a whole lot better than he did, so I avoided TV, internet, etc...

I like surprises, but only good ones.

[Cha]

53. That was such a Good

surprise for you.. I can imagine the smile it put on your face.

James Clyburn's endorsement and South Carolina's Big Win, & Pete and Amy's dropping out, and Endorsing Biden, launched Super Spectacular Tuesday! The whole week was one for the history books.

Joe Biden "Reignited Obama's Coalition" and then some!

to Clyburn, Pete, and Amy.. and Jannie Jones!

Ms. Jones said that she recognized Mr. Clyburn from seeing him on television. “But he didn’t know me from Adam’s house cat,” she said. “When I got home, I didn’t think no more of it. I just thought that hearing from him meant the world for me. I didn’t know that it was a big influence for him.”

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=648915

[Tarheel_Dem]

54. It was a wonderful surprise indeed. Biden doesn't attract tens of thousands to rally, but he...

packs a wallop where it counts.

[oasis]

33. Wrap it up Joe. nt

[Vivienne235729]

36. Oh wow. And that's the thing. Biden doesn't just win. He wins by huge margins.

Bernie has been scraping by on his wins. Bernie's campaign is on life support, swirling around the drain at this point.

[herding cats]

37. Herding cats analysis: Make calls and canvass like never before for Joe in MI!

If you live there get active and canvass for him! If you don't, make calls for him, please!

I think it's close, but winnable. Which is amazing to hear!! We want this win. So, if you can, please help make it happen.

If you don't know how to get involved in Joe's campaign, message me. I'll help connect you.

#GoJoe

[Cha]

41. Mahalo Cats.. great Call to Action Recommnedations!

I have a hard time believing Joe is that far ahead in Michigan.

[herding cats]

55. I've seen the recent polls... I'm still with the team fighting like we're behind.

It's how you win, and we want a win, not a close race, but a win.

This state could break it early for Biden. We need all hands on deck here!

Much love to you, Cha! I'm sorry I'm not around here much lately. Typical me. I jumped into the campaign. I'm a creature of habit, I guess?

Hey, as an aside. Stay safe! COVID-19 is scary... I'm worried about those I care about.

[Cha]

56. Mahalo, Cats!

You stay safe, too Just found out Zinc Lozenges are really good for the virus. It needs to start activating in the mouth.

Glad you jumped into the Campaign.. you're needed there!

Keep us updated from time to time

[Cha]

43. We'll see if Steve Mitchell is right on!

TY, DSB

[duforsure]

51. Bernie needs to drop out now,

And not wait until its too late for all his people to switch over, he needs to go now, and help get Democrats back into the White House as his campaign falls flat again, and his losses add up.