Are Biden's falling polling numbers due to the Pandemic?

[bluewater]

In both 538's and The Economist's polling trackers Biden's polling numbers have fallen off and Sanders have gone up over the last two weeks.

Biden now at 53% vs 40% for Sanders at the Economist:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

and Biden at 51.1% vs 33.8 for Sanders at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Is this an emerging trend as people are influenced by the coronavirus pandemic?

Will the delay in holding primaries work to Sanders advantage if this is a trend?

Is this why Bernie Sanders has refused to drop out of the race?

[Legends303]

1. Sanders is surging

[TwilightZone]

5. No, he's not.

The OP is incorrect. Sanders had a momentary bump about ten days ago and has dropped a point and half average since.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[bluewater]

12. Please don't ignore Biden's corresponding drop off in both major polling trackers trackers.

People can see the trends for themselves at:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

and

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

And Sanders is up on 538 since 3/7 as anyone can see from the trend chart. Please don't cherry pick results but instead look at both 538's and The Economists trend charts to see the full picture.

[pnwmom]

37. I can't believe that you think that Bernie's supposed 40% puts him in a good position

with all the delegates that Biden already has.



538 also says Biden has a 98% chance of winning the nomination, and Bernie has less than 1%.

[Aquaria]

31. LOL wut?

[MFM008]

47. Noone is

Interested in Sanders or this race for the monent.

[thesquanderer]

69. Except for the people who scan the Democratic Primaries forum. ;-) (n/t)

[Codeine]

64. This is the Internet equivalent

of clinging to lifeboat wreckage.

[NurseJackie]

66. Oh, honey! Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!

... no he's not.

[zackymilly]

67. Sanders is surging? It may be a medical issue, but we don't know his medical history, so who knows?

[ehrnst]

80. ....

[SiliconValley_Dem]

2. No

[Anon-C]

3. Possibly. Sanders would need to win out at a 30% margin to win regardless. I am skeptical of polling

...over the past few weeks and the cited polls in-particular, but I do believe Sanders team may hope to profit from the chaos somehow. I have even seen macabre suggestions you know, something bad may happen to Joe, bro.

Proceed, Senator.

[bluewater]

7. I believe you are correct.

"but I do believe Sanders team may hope to profit from the chaos somehow"

Depending on how bad things get, I think wild voter swings could be possible.

[Anon-C]

13. In the general, yes. Unless the balance of AAs, suburban women and college-educated whites in the...

...remaining democratic states are effectively neutralized it is extremely unlikely Sanders can win.

[bluewater]

14. Again, I believe you are correct.

But even if this is a trend that falls short, which it most probably will, it would explain why Sanders refuses to drop out.

Sanders must be waiting to see what actually happens over the next month.

[brush]

19. Why do you have a Biden icon?

[bluewater]

23. Why would I not?

I called for Sanders to drop out of the race after he lost the Michigan Primary because those blue wall states are vital in the general election.

Why would pointing out the trend charts at 538 and The Economist make you ask why I am a Biden supporter now?

If you read my replies in this thread, you will see that I have not made up my mind if this is an actual emerging trend yet or not.

But it does make me ask, as I have in the OP, if this is why Sanders has refused to drop out.

Enjoy your evening.

[brush]

26. Sanders has refused to drop out because he's Sanders. Nothing new.

[thesquanderer]

72. re: "after he lost the Michigan Primary because those blue wall states are vital in the GE"

I'd say that's not a good thing to base your choice on. Losing Michigan to Biden in no way tells you whether Biden would be stronger in Michigan against Trump. The same voters who prefer Biden over Trump can easily equally prefer Sanders over Trump. Plus a lot more people vote in the general, it's a different set of voters, and the primary results tell you nothing about how those people will vote. If you want to compare how likely Biden or Sanders are to take Michigan in November, the best info is here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
and
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html

Polling isn't perfect, but repeatedly polling the exact contest of interest is better than drawing an inference from an entirely different contest.

That said, as a former Warren supporter myself, I do think Biden will be the stronger general election candidate than Sanders would be, for reasons I described at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287672216
reasons that would all still be true even if Sanders had won Michigan.

[thesquanderer]

70. Why not?

People can be interested in discussing different parameters of the race and different possible outcomes regardless of who they support. Deciding on a candidate to vote for in the primary does not need to turn someone into a zealot.

[TwilightZone]

4. Sanders is down from ten days ago.

Not sure where you're seeing a trend upward. He had a slight bump March 10th due to some odd polling results and has since dropped about a point and a half average.

Biden's bump was probably due to an ABC poll that looks like an outlier (61/32 Biden). Take out that poll and he's been stable pretty much since 3/9.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

On edit: nice cherry-picking for the OP, by the way.

[bluewater]

9. Sanders is up on 538 since 3/7.

So, please don't accuse anyone else of cherry picking.

And Biden is down on both 538 and The Economist.

I provided the links to the two major trackers that show the full charts for people to see the actual trends for themselves.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Enjoy your evening.

[Anon-C]

29. Well Big Tuesday was 3/10, and Biden polled pretty well there.

[Aquaria]

34. National polls are meaningless in regards to the nomination.

What matters are the polls in the remaining states.

Do you have any evidence of how those states are polling?

[True Blue American]

43. Ohio poll

Primary June 2ND.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ohio/

[PubliusEnigma]

6. Or Bust, I presume?

[frazzled]

8. Sanders needs to win 60+ percent of all the remaining votes

There is no way, even with these numbers, which are national, not remaining states.
It’s a delegate race, and he’s losing that badly.

[W_HAMILTON]

41. I just did the math: Sanders needs to win 64% of the remaining delegates.

[NCProgressive]

10. Pandemics are what pandemics are.

[bluewater]

11. +1000

Indeed.

[customerserviceguy]

15. I predicted

that after Super Tuesday, the focus of media coverage would be very predominately on C-19, and not so much on the election. It's hard to find Joe Biden's image when you turn on TV news these days.

[brush]

16. Sanders appeals to his usual 30%, but the rest of the contests feature diverse...

demographics and are primaries not caucuses. Sanders will be lucky to even come close in any of them.

But count on him to be his usual divisive self to drag this out as long as he can, even if it helps trump—which it does. He as no shot at nomination.

[bluewater]

17. The Economist has Sanders up to 40% at the moment.

Again, has the pandemic thrown a wild card into the polling numbers?

I will give it another two weeks to see if this is an actual emerging trend or just a momentary burp.

[brush]

21. No rallies, no surge.

[Aquaria]

35. And again, national numbers are meaningless.

The polls of states with upcoming primaries are all that matter.

What do those show?

[BidenBacker]

62. Want proof that Arizona is smarter than Florida?

AZ:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html

FL:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

And the Cactus League is way better than the Grapefruit League too.

[helpisontheway]

18. It does not matter. This race is over. Nt

[bluewater]

20. I agree.

I called for Sanders to drop out after he lost the Michigan Primary.

But my question was, is this change in the polling why Sanders refuses to drop out?

Could the pandemic cause a wild swing from voters if the situation takes a drastic change for the worse?

I am going to give it two weeks to see if it's an actual trend or not. I wonder if that's what the Sander's campaign is doing themselves.

I bet it is.

[Aquaria]

36. No, BS refuses to drop out because he's trying to remain relevant

And that's the most generous explanation possible for his behavior.

You're citing national polls, and those do not matter for the primaries. The polls for states to come in the primary season are all that matter.

[doc03]

22. I support Biden but it seems he has disappeared the last

week or two. I am starting to worry about is health.

[bluewater]

24. So has Sanders, to be honest they both have.

The pandemic, delaying the primaries, has pushed both Biden and Sanders out of the spotlight.

The focus is on Congress and Trump now.

[doc03]

28. Someone has to be out doing something Trump

is putting on one hell of a show. His supporters are saying how Trump has stepped up and taken charge.
Believe it or not some people claim he is doing a good job.

[BidenBacker]

59. Look what some of Trump's devotees just did in my state

Arizona man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine to treat coronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html

Chalk up 1 and maybe 2 more deaths to the stupid SOB dispensing "medical advice" in the White House.

[Aquaria]

38. Stop promoting this right-wing meme

He presented a COVID-19 plan so good that the public and pundits laughed at how quickly Dolt45 ripped it off, right before the Arizona/Florida/Illinois trouncing he gave BS.

Speaking of the primaries: Did you miss how Biden was THE story from Tuesday night into Wednesday as he clobbered BS in all three states? I mean, the press was all over him and showing his face everywhere! And he even gave a beautiful victory speech after it that aired, well, everywhere, and won high praise from the pubic and pundit class alike.

Did you miss how he's gotten the word out that he's working with scientists and pandemic policy experts, governors and legislators and more, all across America to coordinate a plan for his campaign to stay on top of the pandemic?

Did you miss how he released two major ads attacking the treasonous fat psychopath for his COVID-19 failures, one of them featuring the head of Obama's pandemic response team (can't think of his name right now)? And how people loved both ads?

Most candidates would kill for 7-10 days of media win like that, but somehow, this twisted lie keeps circulating of Biden disappearing--when he's done no such thing. If that's what you call disappeared, then what constitutes being in your face must involve having something run over you with a steamroller.

[True Blue American]

44. 1%

[Cha]

50. Thank you.. you are Dead On! I don't how some

can so unobservant when it's only our lives, country and Planet at stake.

[still_one]

53. +++

[True Blue American]

45. Biden is

Broadcasting from his home. You are not looking very hard.

[Codeine]

65. Balderdash. nt

[LakeArenal]

79. Biden was all over the place today.

The View and two other big interviews.
Jake Tapper? Anyway three interviews today.

[William769]

25. Ask yourself this

Out of the remaining States left, what percentage does Sanders need to secure the nomination. When you have that answer, thread will be moot.

[bluewater]

27. Ask yourself this

has there been wild unexpected swings in the primary race so far? When you have that answer, ask yourself if that is why Sanders refuses to drop out in the midst of the biggest health crisis in the world in the last 100 years.

[William769]

30. Have fun trying to get Sanders the nomination.

[bluewater]

32. Have fun trying to get me interested in a strawman argument.

My question remains, is Biden's decline in both major polling trackers due to the pandemic?

Is this why Sanders refuses to drop out.

There is no reason I can see why Biden's polling numbers should not have CONTINUED to go up expect for the pandemic.

If you do not wish to discuss this and it's implications, if any, for the general election, fine. But please don't expect me to bite on your strawman argument that pointing out the polling trend makes me a Sanders supporter.

I am not. I like many, even most, of Sanders's policies, but as a former Warren supporter feel that Sanders losing Michigan showed that Biden would be our best bet in the general election versus Trump.

That is why I am asking why are Joe's polling numbers going down now? Why are they not going UP considering how badly Trump is managing the crisis?

That's the issue I wished to discuss.

[Aquaria]

49. And the answer still remains that you're referring to national polls

Which have zilch to do with the primaries to come. Over half of the country has had their say at the only poll that matters--the ballot box. Now all that remains is what's happening in the upcoming states.

How are the upcoming states polling? It doesn't matter what the rest of the country thinks, because they've made their viewpoint clear, already, at the ultimate poll: The ballot box. Show why we should care about national polling, when it doesn't matter a hill of beans.

BS has yet to win a primary in a red state. Do you have any evidence of that changing?

Biden is a native son to Pennsylvania, and the former Senator of Delaware. Do you have any evidence that he is behind in either of those states?

Do you have any evidence that heavily Catholic Rhode Island won't vote for Catholic Biden?

Do you have any evidence that Maryland and the District of Columbia will vote any differently than Virginia did, when all three are remarkably similar to each other in demographics?

Do you have any evidence that someone who couldn't win in MA or WA would do so in CT, NJ or NY--states that are all remarkably similar to MA and WA for voting?

Do you seriously think that BS can get the nomination with the caucus in WY, and maybe--MAYBE--victories in HI, NM, OR and the remaining territories of PR, Guam and the Virgin Islands? Those are the best hopes BS has for eking out some state/territory wins, and none of them break 61 delegates to grab. And, worse, Biden has been polling ahead in HI, NM and OR.

BS must win big in the remaining states and territories, but where in them is his path to victory, especially when (not if) he loses DE, PA, RI and the red states? That bloc of states has 868 delegates. Even if BS got 41% of those votes and all of the delegates were granted by the vote (unlikely), that would only be 356 delegates, compared to Biden getting 512. Add that to the 1215 delegates Biden has as of now, and that would put Biden up 1727 to BS's 1365. Biden would need only 264 of the remaining delegates at that point. Even if BS won the 788 delegates of CT, DC, HI, MD, NJ, NM, OR, PR, GU and VI by 65% to 35% over Biden, Biden would still get the nomination on the first ballot--no need to deal with the superdelegates at all.

There is no path for BS to win. You can cite national polls all day, but none of them will change that fact.

[BidenBacker]

60. oooh

I like it when you go all Kornacki on us.

[Aquaria]

39. Not since South Carolina

Why do you ask?

[showblue22]

33. It's over

None of this matters. It really is over. Americans as a whole reject Bernie

[quakerboy]

40. Sanders is losing. Badly.

He is staying in because it does no actual harm to do so, despite the Daily hatefest here.

[True Blue American]

46. The hate fest is coming from those trying to deflect.

There is no reason to keep supporting a candidate that has lost.

[quakerboy]

68. Sure there is. Plenty of reasons

They prefer him. They aren't ready to give up. They hope that continued support will bring more of their policy to the fore even in loss. They are being attacked and that rarely ever convinces people to change sides and join in unity. To name a few.

[Sloumeau]

42. This is the normal noise you see in polling.

Bernie's in the 30s, Biden is in the 50s. You will see small movements like this from poll to poll.

[jorgevlorgan]

48. There was polling every day until 3/20.

There hasn't been any polling conducted since, for some reason. I have a feeling you are right and have speculated for a while that this pandemic could benefit Sanders in the long term. The only real question is whether it is enough to matter. Another thing I noticed is that in 2 weeks, there have only been two A or A/B rated polls done. The A/B rated one showing Biden ahead by about 30 (i think) about 2 weeks ago, and the A rated one showing Biden ahead by 12 on 3/20. It might not mean anything, but we won't really know until we see more polls or elections.

[ucrdem]

51. The only numbers that matter are primary election results and Sanders decisively lost.

But I suppose you knew that.

[TexasTowelie]

52. What is the point of this OP other than to undermine the presumptive nominee?

You may have put window dressing on it by disguising it with the question as to why Bernie hasn't dropped out, but this OP undermines our efforts to win the general election.

[still_one]

54. yup, and the OP has a pattern of doing this

[TexasTowelie]

56. I'm aware of the pattern.

It's disappointing to read something of this nature on DU where we are supposed to support Democrats, and it only serves to delay unifying together.

[still_one]

58. Well said Texas

[thesquanderer]

71. If you only want to see pro-Biden posts, isn't that the whole purpose of the Biden 2020 group? nt

[TexasTowelie]

73. Thankfully, this particular group will be closed in a few months

and Biden will be the nominee.

[thesquanderer]

74. Maybe sooner, if Sanders withdraws. Might depend on when Joe hits 1991? n/t

[TexasTowelie]

75. And I wish that Bernie would withdraw now instead of later.

I see absolutely no benefit of a campaign that asks for donations when it is no longer possible for the candidate to win the nomination.

If Bernie's campaign is in debt after paying all of the bills, then Bernie can ask for assistance from the party at the convention to retire the debt. I recall that there was a similar situation with Hillary paying all of her debts after 2008 and Democrats stepped up to help. Bernie would likely be the benefit of such generosity if he withdrew gracefully rather than fighting a revolution that will never occur.

[BidenBacker]

55. I'd like to point out

that progressives represent roughly 40-45% of the Democratic Party while non-progressives (conservatives, moderates & liberals) obviously therefore make up 55-60% of all Democrats. This comes from detailed surveys conducted by the excellent Pew Research outfit as well as other sources...ie, not just simple polls but detailed in-depth studies.

This number was borne out in 2016 when Hillary beat Bernie by 55-43%. So the poll numbers you quoted fall right in line with the surveys and the 2016 results. If you scale up 538's numbers to a full 100% then we have Biden at 60.2% and Sanders at 39.8%...again right where you would expect them to be based on the actual makeup of the party.

If anything, Bernie has been underperforming slightly in the primaries to date and that might be because Biden has broader support than Clinton did and some progressives have jumped ship in favor of a more electable candidate who would have broader appeal to the entire electorate as a whole.

Bottomline is that there is a natural ceiling that limits how high Sanders can go and even if the best he can do is losing 55-45% (highly optimistic to say the least) the rest of the way that ain't gonna cut the mustard. Numbers are numbers and none of them trouble me in the least despite the small fluctuations you see from day to day and week to week.

[The Magistrate]

77. Good Analysis, Sir

Sanders is certainly falling short of his marks compared to his last effort. Several likely reasons come to mind.

First, he is no longer a novelty. This is one reason young voters are not turning out in the same numbers. He is a tune from a 'golden oldies' segment, so to speak. Some people still play the old tunes, most move on.

Second, a goodly portion of Democrats, people who consistently vote in Democratic primaries, who are active in local party activities, who consistently vote for Democratic Party candidates, hate the man with a passion. These people are eager to turn out to vote against 'Bernie', and inclined to give neither quarter nor mercy to him. They have seen the harm he does to their Party, and want him stopped. Hate is a powerful motivator. A lot of tosh is talked by pundits and such about giving people something to vote for. It is nonesense. A civics textbook view of things. People are more likely to vote against something than for something, if they genuinely hate and fear what they vote against.

Third, Sanders was the beneficiary of a good deal of misogynist feeling among 'white working class men' in 2016, which he mistook for the people rallying to his cause and showing they were eager for leftist policies if only approached by an authentic radical such as himself. This was a delusion, which he believed and probably still believes, because it is what he has craved all his adult life. One thing a sensible man learns as he grows to maturity is to be wary of seeing in the world around him what he wants to be true. When you think your dream is coming true is when you need to look at things with especial skepticism. You may still conclude it actually is happening, but first you ought to apply with rigor the old News Bureau test: "If your mother says she loves you ---- check it out." But Sanders wanted to believe, and still wants to believe, and probably will never quite let go of that wonderful feeling of fulfillment he enjoyed so four years ago. For none of those people, who voted for his gender rather than his policies, when all is said and done, are voting for him now.





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[tirebiter]

57. When wil Joe broadcast and on what site?

Seems a wee bit too difficult to find.. I want the world to know.

[Sloumeau]

63. Biden's Remarks Today:

From the following DailyKos.com story:
[link:https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/23/1930480/-Biden-s-Remarks-Today?utm_campaign=trending|]

Biden is posting his videos on his twitter feed:
<a href="

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"></a>

[BidenBacker]

61. Don't worry

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Be happy.

[MustLoveBeagles]

78. Ha

[RandySF]

76. Sanders will have to win 80% in every remaining state just to pull even.

[George II]

81. An update - on Monday 538 forecast Biden to get 1081 of the remaining delegates, Sanders 545....

Yesterday morning their forecast was Biden 1088 (up 7), Sanders 539 (down 6)

These forecasts are based on a detailed algorithm assessing all the polls.

It doesn't look like Biden is "falling" in the polls.