How Bernie Sanders Thinks He'll Win the Nomination

[applegrove]

How Bernie Sanders Thinks He’ll Win the Nomination

April 18, 2019 at 9:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/18/how-bernie-sanders-thinks-hell-win-nomination/

"SNIP....

The Atlantic: “He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.”

....SNIP"

[Blue_Tires]

1. That's pretty much his ONLY road

hoping and praying that the unusually large field of candidates cannibalizes each other and hand him the nomination on a platter. Up against Trump it’ll be a much different story though, since Sanders’ populist rhetoric is mostly identical to Trump’s, with the exception being Bern uses less racism and can actually form coherent sentences.

[WeekiWater]

2. Full article can be found here.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128773694

[applegrove]

3. Thanks.

[SFnomad]

4. If BS doesn't get the nomination on the first ballot, he's not going to get it n/t

[thesquanderer]

5. With this many candidates, it will be hard for anyone to win 1st ballot

esp. since we have no winner-take-all primaries.

So to a large extent, I think the primary process will be all about positioning.

[SFnomad]

6. I believe you're wrong for the following reasons

1) We're not going to have this many candidates by the 1st of the year, the ones that can't get enough traction to get much in the way of donations aren't going to remain. We're going to have 3 more reporting periods between now and the end of the year. It will be easy to tell who can't cut it.

2) After both Iowa and New Hampshire, the number of candidates exiting will be significant. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, the herd will be thinned considerably.

3) Each Democratic Primary has a viability threshold of 15%, it's not like all these candidates are going to be getting 1 or maybe 2 delegates. At most, 2 or 3 candidates will be getting any delegates at all, maybe 4 at a stretch. It's even possible that we'll get states where only a single candidate cracks the viability threshold, making those states the equivalent to winner-takes-all.

Add all that up and I can bet we're not going to have to worry about a brokered convention ... we haven't had one in nearly 70 years. We'll know after Super Tuesday if this is a real possibility, it's not worth it to worry about it before then. But if it does end up brokered, you can bet that BS won't be a consensus candidate, he's not a team player and that won't go unnoticed.

[thesquanderer]

8. I think we'd have to have a lot of folks dropping out BEFORE Super Tuesday

to have a really good shot at an uncontested first ballot. I'm not sure even getting down to just 6 is sufficient, and I have a hard time imagining that it will that quickly fall below that.

Good point about the 15% threshold.

[SFnomad]

9. We're not going to have a brokered convention, but I hope we do ... BS has NO chance of winning that

But in 2016, the Republicans had 17 candidates. By the time the first primaries happened, they were already down to 12. By Super Tuesday, they were down to 5. After Super Tuesday they were down to 4. There is no reason to believe that the Democrats in 2020 will be any different.

The odds of a brokered convention are very, very low. I'm betting we'll be able to rule it out by the end of Super Tuesday. I don't understand why so many people continue to go on about this like this is something we seriously need to worry about.

[thesquanderer]

10. In 2016, with just TWO candidates...

...we didn't have a brokered convention, but we came closer than anyone would have thought. If even one more candidate had stayed in for any length of time, it could have easily happened. Remember, we were down to just two after Iowa, I really doubt that will happen this time.

The Republicans could easily have had a brokered convention if it wasn't for the winner-take-all approach.

[SFnomad]

11. In 2016, we weren't even close. We were way closer in 2008 and then, it really wasn't close

What is this obsession with people worrying about something we can't stop, if it were to happen? This is not likely to happen ... period. And we won't know for nearly a year if it is. There are so many other things to work on, it's just a waste of energy to fret over the small possibility of it happening.

[thesquanderer]

13. Yes, maybe 2008 is a better example.

We were down to only two candidates by Super Tuesday, and it still got somewhat close. If merely one more candidate had done well enough to hold on a bit longer, who knows? Unlike 2008 or 2016, I doubt we'll be down to two by Super Tuesday.

I'm not saying 2008/2016 were squeakers, I'm saying they were closer than many had expected, and close enough that even so much as a third viable candidate who lasted another month could have tipped the balance... and we can easily have a third, fourth, or fifth candidate who makes it into March this time.

But I hope it's not a contested convention, and your scenario is certainly possible.

As to why worry about it, I think that applies to an awful lot of posts here. It's just conversation on topics of mutual interest. So much of it is like the weather... you can talk about it, but you can't do anything about it. (Though at least now we can support climate change policies!)

[SFnomad]

14. omg, if you want to waste your energy continuing to beat this horse ... knock yourself out

It's not likely to happen ... period. And I'm not going to waste any more time on this. We will know about March, OF NEXT YEAR, if it's even got a chance to happen ... and it's not very likely. And if it's going to happen, there is nothing we can do to stop it, either.

[BlueFlorida]

7. ...

[madville]

12. There are some bad scenarios possible

Bernie and Biden roll into the convention at about 30% each and no one wins the first round. Then the super delegates mostly go Biden because they certainly won't go Bernie. Millions of Bernie supporters will meltdown about the "stolen" nomination and go third party or sit out.

It's all going to depend on how Super Tuesday shakes out and who drops out by then.