Beto puts Texas in play...

[Indygram]

Here are vote totals and percentages for Texas elections.

These numbers lead me to believe that if Beto is the nominee (or perhaps Biden's VP pick) that he can deliver Texas.

Texas 2012

Romeny: 4,569,843 57% TOTAL: 7,877,967
Obama: 3,308,124 41%

Cruz: 4,456,599 57%
Sadler: 3,183,314 40%


Texas 2014

Cornyn: 2,855,068 61.6% TOTAL: 4,449,320
Alameel: 1,594,252 34.4%


Texas 2016

Trump: 4,681,590 52.6% TOTAL: 8,549,406
Clinton: 3,867,816 43.4%


Texas 2018

Cruz: 4,260,553 50.9% TOTAL: 8,306,185
O'Rourke: 4,045,632 48.3%


Notice that Trump got almost 5% less of the vote in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. That indicates that even before putting kids in cages, Trump's support was weaker than usual. In 2016, Clinton got over 2% more in votes than Obama did in 2102, likely because support for Trump is not solid in Texas. Now factor in 2018 where Cruz got over 6% LESS in support from his 2012 race. Beto got over 7% more than Obama, over 5% more than Hillary did and over 8% more than Cruz's 2012 challenger. With how close Beto got against Cruz and how unpopular Trump is...IF Beto is the nominee than statistically speaking...Texas IS in play. The turnout for 2018 for a midterm nearly doubled, so you can expect an even higher number in 2020. Texas is 38 electoral voters and Trump NEEDS Texas or he's toast.

[MineralMan]

1. Well, while O'Rourke made a good showing, he still lost.

I don't think Texas is ready to flip, to tell the truth, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.

[Indygram]

3. There's nothing quite like seeing little kids in cages in your back yard

To inspire your vote to flip. If you look at Trump's percentage compared to Romney it's clear that his support is not as solid as traditional Republicans has been every other election. Combine that with Beto being well known and popular and the fact that Trump will be forced to devote time and money to try to prevent Texas from flipping. That takes away from time and money spent in the rust belt. Beto delivered the youth vote...up by 500% in a mid-term. He visited every single county and those areas that don't like Trump will fell much better about voting for Beto because they already know him.

[MineralMan]

6. Trump voters in Texas, along with Cruz voters,

think it's great that brown children and their families are in cages, though. Now, if we could get everyone else to show up and vote, and make it possible for them to do that, there might be a chance.

I hear what you're saying, but Texas is "a whole other country."

[Indygram]

9. Beto did just that...

Almost doubled the midterm turn out from 2014 and the youth voter turnout was up 500%. Trump under-performed in Texas in 2016 compared to other Republicans. Beto over-performed compared to other Democrats. Trump is going to campaign on immigration and the border. Beto is absolutely brilliant on the issue because he lives on the border and knows facts. He's stronger than anyone else on the issue. He also ties climate change to desperate asylum seekers, warning that if we don't address it now that those countries will have even more asylum seekers because their countries will no longer be able to grow food. He also is very much like Obama in his positive message and hopefulness.

[MineralMan]

10. I think you should support whoever you like best.

Texas, however, is just one state and might not respond as you thing it will. All 50 states must be considered.

[crazytown]

41. But would you put more time and resources into FL

where a Sitting Dem Senator was defeated amidst the biggest Blue Wave since 1974?

[MineralMan]

42. I don't know enough to allocate campaign resources like that.

I have a hard enough time deciding who to support, just for myself.

[cwydro]

15. Exactly.

This.

[FBaggins]

8. Sure there are

An issue that few here are recognizing is that a large number of Republicans did not vote for Trump in ‘16 because they didn’t believe that he would actually appoint conservative judges.

Those voters won’t stay home this time around and they know that Ginsburg/Breyer won’t both make it through six more years.

[Indygram]

11. I'm pretty sure that over 20% of Texans are Independents

Who are not loyal to any party. I'm a registered Independent. I have only voted for Democrats for 15 or so years. Independents overwhelmingly despise Trump.

[FBaggins]

13. "Independent" is a relative term

I’s in TX are very different from those in MA.

And it isn’t “overwhelming”... they approve of Trump at just a handful of points below the population at large (39% in the last national Gallup pull and likely higher in TX). We also can’t ignore the fact that they were there in 2016 too. I can see Beto winning more votes than Hillary... but not the million-plus extra votes it will take to turn TX blue.

[Indygram]

22. I think he can do it...and even if he didn't he forces Trump to have to fight

And any other candidate allows the Republicans to put more effort in the rust belt and just win Texas by default.

Beto is the most charismatic and the most charismatic candidate always wins.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. You make an excellent point regarding Republicans who did not show up for Trump in 2016

That aspect is indeed not recognized here. Until that 2016 result, the GOP didn't realize how well Trump would fare in the rural counties all across the country. The candidate was underfunded and Republicans/Trump expected to lose.

Once the outcome somehow fell their way my immediate thought was that they would realize there is plenty more to squeeze from the same demographic. I'm sure it was emphasized immediately. Pew Research is projecting a decline from 46% of the electorate as non-college educated whites in 2016 down to 44% of the electorate from that category in 2020. I'm not so sure about that. Pew has been great historically with demographic estimates but Trump fooled them badly in 2016. Pew forecast that the electorate would drop to 69% whites. Instead it was either 71% or 72%, depending on which source you trust. That is a massive gap from 69%. Now Pew is dropping all the way down to 66% whites for its 2020 forecast but I don't see how that can happen.

Anyway, Beto indeed puts Texas into play but probably loses to Trump by 2-3% or thereabouts. Texas has 44% self-identified conservatives. That remains the problematic aspect. There is simply no margin for error against an ideological wall like that. None of the subjective wishes or yard sign trivia mean anything in comparison. States with 40+% conservatives can be stolen away only when there is a Roy Moore-type situation. It takes something that dramatic and unusual. Otherwise the best we manage is a narrow defeat. It is exponentially easier to create a phony tight loss in a race like that than to actually get over the top.

[Indygram]

27. I think that between family separation and the Mueller report that is enough to flip it

I'm sure there are lots of Bush conservatives who would rather see Beto elected than Trump, too.

[JustAnotherGen]

14. ITA

I think it would be wasted energy. Focus on the fundamentals. Feel the same way about Ohio and Florida - Look at their Governors.

[DesertRat]

17. I agree with you. I'd feel more optimistic if he'd beaten Cruz.

Having lived in North Texas and still spending a lot of time in the state, I don't see them ready to flip soon either.

[David__77]

2. Perhaps with a truly massive voter registration drive.

Hopefully that drive happens.

[Indygram]

4. There are already canvassing operations underway

And he already has an established network from just a few short months ago.

[David__77]

5. That's great!

...

[FBaggins]

7. I doubt it

Beto came close by firing up the base so much that he saw presidential-election-turnout in a midterm. They were energized both by his charisma and dislike for his opponent.

Both parties get that type of turnout in actual presidential races... and Coryn isn’t the drag that Cruz is.

He can outperform Clinton’s 2016 numbers, but not by the >15% it will take to turn TX blue.

[BannonsLiver]

18. He wouldn't need to turn Texas blue for it to be beneficial

Donnie having to expend resources there is also a tactical victory for whoever the Dem nominee is. Not all about winning it outright.

[Rstrstx]

31. Texas Dems need Beto, he is the de facto leader of the party

Looking at the demographic numbers from the 2016 election and superimpose them on 2018 and yeah, it's totally believable that he could put TX in play, he outperformed Clinton substantially and Cruz is somehow more popular in TX than Trump.

Without him on the ticket it's difficult to see TX as competitive, he had a massive ground game and knew how to rile up the base like no-one else.

And if he doesn't get the party's nomination I would hope he would have a prominent position in a 2020 Democratic administration. That allows his political future to continue and I think he could absolutely win a statewide race in 2022 or the Senate race in 2024.

Having said all that, it's MUCH more important to win 2020 than to try and flip TX (though the latter would almost certainly guarantee the former). Just win back 3 of the 4 states that had a margin of 1% or less, or pick up AZ, I don't care how we get to 270 let's just get there.

[dsc]

12. Llyod Bentsen

He had beaten George H W Bush like a drum when they ran against each other. Then Dukakis put him on the ticket and well we know how that turned out.

[BannonsLiver]

19. That was 31 years ago.

Texas has changed a lot since then. I’m not saying it’s even purple or about to be blue but it’s a different place than it was three decades ago. That should be obvious to anyone who follows politics.

[JI7]

34. but he was the VP candidate and that was before Democrats started to do better

mostly due to demographic changes and culturally becoming more liberal. also Dukakis was doing well until the question about rape and death penalty at the debate.

Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern etc today would easily win California . even against NIxon and Reagan.

[Autumn]

16. That would be nice but I don't think that will happen. nt

[artislife]

20. Do you think he will have a hard time

getting the Latino vote against fellow Texan Julian Castro? I saw an OP here that showed Castro did very well with them.

I am not a supporter of either for different reasons, so I haven't really looked at it in depth.

But it is early days and I am keeping open to many candidates as they move forward in this process.

I am Mexican on my grandmother's side, but live in PNW.

[Indygram]

23. Not at all

He grew up and lives in a border town, is fluent in Spanish. There is no one with a better message on the border and immigration, imo.

[artislife]

24. That is an important issue for me

as you can well imagine.

I did LOVE his speech on taking the knee. That had me cheering.

[Indygram]

29. He has an incredible way of framing the immigration/border/asylum debate

He knows the facts, history, what's really happening, cause and effect...and he ties in climate change and that if we don't do something to take care of that while we still can we are going to see even more asylum seekers because some areas will no longer be able to sustain life. He views Dreamers and immigrants for their incredible potential genius and that we should not want to send all that talent and potential away to another country and lose out. His message is very positive and powerful and very well received. He also never poll tests ever, so every word out of his mouth is his true beliefs and opinions. Unfortunately, that's not as common in politics as I wish it were.

[artislife]

30. Yes, climate change is

Last edited Sun Apr 21, 2019, 11:38 PM - Edit history (1)

really affecting migration already. Tunisia is a brilliant example of what happens when people cannot live off the land and go to the cities. It is like a powder keg, especially if there isn't that much to go around before more people came in. And these are citizens of the same country. Throw in "otherness" and it gets worse.

And the problem is, that there is enough for everyone, if we stopped allowing it all to rise to a small percentage of people.

[Indygram]

32. As far as I know Beto is the only one making that connection

And it actually can help get more conservatives to get on board with fighting climate change. Right now Beto is flying under the radar, but he is busting his butt building a formidable ground game. He excites and motivates people, especially young people.

[karynnj]

35. That connection was made long before Beto. In fact, it was a key observation in 2007 in a Biden led

SFRC hearing that John Kerry persuaded Biden, the committee chair to hold based on a then new report by several 3 star and 4 star ex generals. Since that point, many Democrats have made that point.

Jay Inslee has far more credibility on this issue than Beto. Not to mention, Biden has made this point himself.

[Indygram]

36. What does a hearing in 2007 have to do with other candidates talking about the issue right now?

I didn't say he was the first person ever to mention it in all of history. I said he is the only one who IS making the connection to immigration and asylum seekers right now. I listened to Inslee's town hall and I didn't hear him mention it. It's true Inslee is big on climate change. Let's not forget what Trump is campaigning on, though...it won't be the climate. He's already campaigning on the border and immigration and no one can expose how big of an idiot Trump is in a debate on the border than the guy who gave us this:

(This is how Beto always answers questions...never poll testing, always authentic and thoughtful)

[karynnj]

38. The point is that many Democrats have started to add that point

That may well have been why Kerry and Hagel, secretaries in Obama's administration, testified to a hearing a few weeks ago on the national security impact of climate change from the level of experience and authority they have on this. Kerry has made this point since at least the time he ran for President!

The other change is that AOC and others have added their enthusiasm and energy to the efforts of elders like Gore and Kerry. They are - to use words Kerry has used often - are working to make this a voting issue. Given that energy on our side, I would not be surprised if that point is now or will soon be added to stump speeches of many Democrats.

As to Inslee, you are judging him on one town hall where it might be no question took him to speaking about this. It has been part of what he commonly speaks about - which can easily be seen by googling his name and "climate refugee". Here is a short MSNBC video - https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/gov-inslee-climate-change-is-a-true-national-emergency-1452119107923 Looking at the google results, you can see that he has made this a major issue -- and the RW has repeated it.

It is also not just Inslee, Elizabeth Warren joined Ed Markey in pushing addressing this issue as a Senator demanding that Trump's State Department deal with its own national security experts' advise.

I think it is great that O'Rouke has adopted this, but he is certainly not a leader or unique in doing so. NO one candidate will be the preeminent advocate on each issue.

[Gothmog]

21. Texas will turn blue

Beto has helped to speed up the process

[TexasTowelie]

26. K&R!

I believe that anything is possible. Trump is less popular than Cruz so I could see Beto pulling off an upset in a head-to-head contest. It would be interesting to see both of them (Trump v. Beto) in a debate.

[redstateblues]

28. I like Beto a lot. He will be a force at some point.

[Indygram]

33. Right now Beto has canvassers on the ground knocking on doors in all states but two

Montana and Delaware. That includes Alaska and Hawaii. There are even people canvassing in American Samoa, lol (that one even shocked me!)

[essadaw]

43. Grassroots organizing is one of Beto's strengths

we will need grassroots organizing strength in the general election. Beto excels in this area. His volunteer team is already so heavy into canvassing.

[BlueFlorida]

39. Beto is the only one who can do that. nt

[Gothmog]

40. Texas May be in play

Link to tweet