A Question about the DU disconnect re Poll Numbers

[donkeypoofed]

I was just wondering why the numbers are so very different. I wish the smart Elizabeth Warren was doing better in the polls, but she's faring well here at 9%.

With Harris and Buttigieg tied at 11% and Biden behind at 10% - and no BS in sight - it leaves me scratching my head trying to figure out why DU is so very different.

Are DU'ers smarter? Quicker? More ejumecated perhaps? I can't understand it at all.

Do you know why?

[MineralMan]

1. DU doesnt reflect the general population of Democrats

very well. It trends considerably farther to the left.

[Kurt V.]

5. say what?

[Hassin Bin Sober]

13. Right?

[Ruby the Liberal]

2. Disengagement on details

I would think that we denizens of DU are more in-tune to the nuances of the race because we are political peeps and pay attention in the off years.

Look at the money race -- seems alot of the donor class are still sitting this out for now to see how it fleshes out as well.

Let them get the first debates under their belt, and it will be Lucy Bar The Door on both counts, IMO.

[hlthe2b]

3. You are comparing PERCENTAGES of a relatively small total expressing an opinion.

A DemPrimary poster enumerated the number of unique posters (since the forum was formed) a few weeks ago and it was only around 500. Sure there may be more now, but certainly, far less than 1000 unique DUers posting there in that forum.

So, given the 500 previously enumerated previously--or hell, let's say 800, that means
336 DUers expressing undecided
88 each for Harris and Buttigieg
80 for Biden
72 for Warren
64 for Sanders


So, the difference on DU between Harris/Buttigieg and Biden is 8 votes!
between Harris/Buttigieg and Warren is 18 votes
between Harris/Buttigieg and Sanders is 24 votes
That is nothing...


See the point? These percentages are meant to add interest, but the sample sizes are so small that they are meaningless--even among DUers.

[Kurt V.]

4. this is a mostly centrist site, thus the top 3.

[OilemFirchen]

8. ...

[Kurt V.]

9. i don't post juvenile memes like this, yet somehow I'm really jealous that you do. :)

[OilemFirchen]

17. No. You do tweener text emoticons instead.

Whatevs. Amiright?

[Kurt V.]

21. I'm hip. :)

[tymorial]

10. Heh.

Funny.

[Kurt V.]

12. i try. hehe

[Celerity]

18. I agree

[yaesu]

6. IDK, I never pay any attention to polls, here or national polls

it may be a fun way to occupy us until the voting starts but I have always thought that If mickey mouse or Herman Munster were on the list they would always be at first & second place.

[hay rick]

7. DU is not representative of the electorate.

Biden, Sanders, and O'Rourke are under appreciated here relative to the general population. I think Biden is penalized for not having officially announced yet. That should change tomorrow. Despite forum rules, Sanders is a constant object of attack here, and that keeps his numbers down. Also, a lot of Sanders supporters left this site, voluntarily and involuntarily, in 2016. I think Beto is too moderate to do well here.

[Celerity]

22. Bernie is penalised for having a non-stop stance of throwing shade on the Democratic Party. This is

a DEMOCRATIC PARTY website. Not much love is going to flow when he is hellbent on slagging off a large part of the very people who are in the Party.

Pro tip Bernie:

Don't shit where you eat.

[dsc]

11. For one thing we are counting undecideds which is by far our biggest group

Harris and Pete would be at 19% each, Biden 17% and Warren 16% if we didn't. Also our sample size is very low and not random. That said, the order is certainly different here. I am actually a bit surprised Warren is doing considerably better here than in real polls. Since Harris is doing well, better here than in the outside world, I am not sure sexism is the only thing to blame for Warren's poorer showing that I think she would have here. I don't know if it is electibility or what. I know I am undecided, in part, because I don't know who will and who won't be viable by the time I get to vote.

[Uncle Joe]

14. D.U members are more politically active than the general populace.

Last edited Wed Apr 24, 2019, 10:03 PM - Edit history (1)

Political activation requires passion and passion or strong emotion cements memories in the subconscious, ie; anger or resentment which I believe colors our perspective more than the average American.

Thus many members here are still reliving the emotional primaries of 2016 and it's reflected in our D.U. polls.

The average American is more concerned about the issues and policies which affect their lives.

Thanks for the thread donkeypoofed.

[NYMinute]

15. DU members are far more attuned to politics

than the Democrats out there.

Eventually, you'll see poll numbers commensurate with DU as time elapses.

[True Dough]

19. That's an interesting theory

and, if accurate, doesn't bode well for your preferred candidate.

[Kentonio]

24. I think that's wildly unlikely.

[Indygram]

16. After listening to Warren today I think I can answer that

She has good ideas and when she got to the part where she was telling a personal story and tying it into her positions she was very engaging and pulled people in. Unfortunately, when she got more into policies and plans she doesn't deliver those things in a condensed manner. She lost me after a bit because she was talking too much detail. It started to come across like a college lecture and I lost interest. I think if she can find away to be more concise and condensed with those policy statements it would help her out a lot.

[brooklynite]

20. Because DU has no relationship to real world politics?

The electorate is not made up of Democratic activists and bloggers.

[Blue_true]

23. DU is fairly well educated, mostly middleclass with

some poor and some rich, mostly or even overwhelmingly White. It is a segment of the party, but not representative of the full breath of the Democratic Party, IMO.