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Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:35 PM

 

Four years ago, Jeb Bush was leading the polls -- out of 16 candidates. Trump polled at 1%.

Jeb Bush was clearly benefiting from name recognition, but that wasn't enough in the long run.

No one should think that the current Democratic front runners are guaranteed to remain the front runners. In politics a dark horse coming from behind isn't unusual, especially this early in the election season.

We will know more once we start having the first debates and primaries.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jeb-bush-surges-lead-gop-pack-new-2016-poll

*** Jeb leads the GOP pack: A brand-new national NBC/WSJ poll finds Jeb Bush leading the crowded Republican presidential field, with 22% of GOP primary voters saying he’s their first choice. He’s followed by Scott Walker at 17%, Marco Rubio at 14%, and Ben Carson at 11%. While Jeb had a similar five-point lead in our April NBC/WSJ poll, you see his current position has strengthened when you look inside the numbers of this new poll. (It was conducted during the buildup and coverage of Bush’s official presidential announcement on June 16.) The latest survey shows him ahead among self-identified conservative GOP primary voters – when he was in third place in April behind Rubio and Walker. And as we unveiled on Sunday, 75% of Republican primary voters in our new poll say they could see themselves supporting Bush – up from 70% in April and 49% in March. Bottom line: While Jeb has plenty of potential problems to overcome (his last name, his positions on immigration and Common Core, his desire to run a general-election campaign instead of one aimed at GOP primary voters), this poll is very good news for him.

*** Who gets left off that first debate stage? The NBC/WSJ poll measured 16 GOP candidates in our horserace question. And here are the 10 Republicans who make our poll’s Top 10 – the criteria being used for the first GOP debate in August – and the six who get left off:

Jeb Bush 22%
Scott Walker 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 2%

Donald Trump 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Four years ago, Jeb Bush was leading the polls -- out of 16 candidates. Trump polled at 1%. (Original post)
pnwmom Apr 2019 OP
beachbum bob Apr 2019 #1
pnwmom Apr 2019 #2
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #4
beachbum bob Apr 2019 #5
Justice Apr 2019 #9
marylandblue Apr 2019 #13
LongtimeAZDem Apr 2019 #3
pnwmom Apr 2019 #6
BlueStater Apr 2019 #7
pnwmom Apr 2019 #8
BlueStater Apr 2019 #10
hurl Apr 2019 #12
marylandblue Apr 2019 #14
LuvLoogie Apr 2019 #11
WeekiWater Apr 2019 #15
NYMinute Apr 2019 #16
pnwmom Apr 2019 #18
ucrdem Apr 2019 #17

Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:37 PM

1. the media made trump the favorite with in months as he was given special treatment and free PR

 

not applicable for today.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:39 PM

2. Eventually that happened. But it hadn't happened by the spring four years ago.

 

DT was barely noticed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:44 PM

4. Joe is going to be the nominee . And that is a good thing. He will beat Trump.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:46 PM

5. I recall trump getting free time on all the cable networks and that propelled him

 

my memory is pretty good, he would call into Morning Joe, Foxnews had him, Cnn. Some say he got $100's of millions free media exposure months before the primaries or debates start and then it exploded even more. No comparison to today
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:57 PM

9. He was given lots of room to run, covered as an entertainer, readily accessible

 


He got a free pass right away because no one took him too seriously.

By the time media started taking him seriously, it was too late.

I know plenty of Republicans who saw him out of the gate and were worried about how easily he was being treated by the media.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:44 PM

13. Trump had a media strategy, the others did not.

 

He did everything possible to generate attention. They didn't "give" him anything, he grabbed their attention. It's the only thing he knows how to do, and he does it very well.

So it is very much applicable to today, because Trump will do the same thing again, this time with the power of the Presidency behind him.

Of all the Democratic candidates, only Buttigieg is using Trump's strategy. Too early to tell if it will work as well for him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:41 PM

3. You're using the Republicans as an example of how we will vote?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #3)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:46 PM

6. I'm using them to demonstrate the phenomenon of dark horse candidates,

 

and why it matters that it's still a year and a half till the election.

A lot can change once the primaries and debates begin.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:50 PM

7. And Hillary was the favorite to win in 2008.

 

It was hers to take. No one could stop her. Not Edwards and certainly not Borat Whoshisface from Illinois.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BlueStater (Reply #7)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:53 PM

8. There were only a handful of candidates who tried. That election was not like this one. n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #8)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 04:01 PM

10. I'm agreeing with you.

 

I find Biden to be an incredibly weak frontrunner and I don't think he's going to withstand the media onslaught well at all, especially when he'll have to argue his own merits and won't have Obama's coattails to cling to.

The main argument for his campaign seems to be "I'm better than the guy who's in office now". When has that EVER been a winning campaign message? I can't believe so many people are being taken in by this.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BlueStater (Reply #10)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 04:28 PM

12. The mood seems to have shifted

 

from 'Wow, we have so many great candidates' to 'Only this one can win and all the weaker ones could just mess this up for us.'
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to hurl (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:47 PM

14. +1

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 04:15 PM

11. GOP voters don't want government

 

They want revenge and punishment on those they despise. trump fit the bill.

Our leaders aren't vindictive shit heads and idiots.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:57 PM

15. You make a solid point.

 

But we don’t have someone like Trump running. You mention the name recognition of Bush. Trump had the same name recognition going in. The Tra Party was looking for someone who would call the other candidates names. White nationals were looking for one of their own. He lied and lied and lied. We don’t have anyone as unstable, immoral, unethical, or as willing to pander to the lowest common demonstrations.

You are correct in your overall point but their last primary isn’t the best of examples.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:59 PM

16. Not a fair comparison

 

They were not running after 4 years of disaster.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NYMinute (Reply #16)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:19 PM

18. Beto is one of the dark horses that could upend the primaries. It's way too early

 

to know how this is going to work out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:05 PM

17. #1, that would be Sanders -- yesterday.

 



p.s. that very comparison crossed my mind tonight
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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