Zorro
Zorro's JournalThe economy can't really come back until consumers feel safe
Services led us into the recession. What’s going to lead us out?The Great Shutdown, which aptly describes the motivating force behind the current recession, ushered in what is probably the first downturn in history to be led by the services sector of the economy.
That in itself, if not the unique nature of the recession — workers ordered to stay home, businesses told to cease operations — poses distinct challenges to the recovery, arguing for a long, drawn out slog to regain lost output.
With the goods sector of the economy, a recession causes inventories to pile up. Deferred sales aren’t lost; just delayed.
With services, there is no backlog to sell at a later date. Vacations not taken, concerts and sporting events cancelled, restaurant meals forsaken: that business is gone for good.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/services-led-us-into-the-recession-whats-going-to-lead-us-out-2020-05-07
Some traders bet the Fed will push interest rates negative next year
Despite pushback from the Federal Reserve, some traders appear to be pricing in expectations that policy makers will push rates below zero.
Based on trading in fed fund futures, market participants see rates turning negative next year amid worries that the Fed has all but expended its tools to cushion growth and keep financial markets functioning as the COVID-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy.
“Until they can credibly prove they won’t go down that road, negative rates will continue to be a topic of discussion,” said Jon Hill, interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview.
Yet senior Fed officials have argued that negative rates were not appropriate for the U.S., even if they were seen elsewhere in countries like Japan and in the eurozone.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-traders-are-betting-the-fed-will-push-interest-rates-negative-next-year-2020-05-07
Don't like the sound of this.
This is one of Trump's biggest and most insulting lies yet
The new economic report paints a picture of truly extraordinary economic carnage. In April, a stunning 20 million jobs disappeared into the abyss of the coronavirus crisis, and unemployment soared to 14.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That’s the highest since the Great Depression.
Which means the presidential race will be not just about who can better return the country to normalcy amid the virus’s continuing rampage. It will also be about who can better rebuild the economy and protect millions of Americans suffering through the worst economic calamity in nearly a century.
President Trump’s campaign has already telegraphed its argument along these lines. And at its core is one of Trump’s biggest and most insulting lies yet.
The claim is that, having once created the most spectacular economy in the known universe, he will now do so a second time.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/08/this-is-one-trumps-biggest-most-insulting-lies-yet/
After Flynn reversal, Trump signals his FBI director is on thin ice
Source: Washington Post
President Trump voiced uncertainty Friday over the future of his FBI director, Christopher A. Wray, a day after the Justice Department moved to throw out the guilty plea of the president’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn.
The president’s comments in a phone interview with Fox News highlight the ongoing distrust between the White House and some senior law enforcement officials in the wake of a nearly two-year investigation by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III into the Russia’s 2016 election interference and the Trump campaign.
“It’s disappointing,” Trump said when asked about Wray’s role in the ongoing reviews of the FBI’s handling of the Russia investigation. “Let’s see what happens with him. Look, the jury’s still out.”
Trump faulted the FBI director for “skirting” the debate surrounding the Russia investigation, although the agency and the Justice Department have insisted it has cooperated fully with officials reviewing the case.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-michael-flynn-fbi-christopher-wray-william-barr/2020/05/08/a6f1b230-912a-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html
Who is Judy Mikovits in 'Plandemic,' the coronavirus conspiracy video just banned from social media?
When Judy Mikovits co-wrote a 2009 research paper that linked the mysterious condition known as chronic fatigue syndrome to a retrovirus that came from mice, thousands of sick patients hoping for relief rallied behind her. The scientific riddle was solved, they thought.
Less than two years later, those hopes were dashed when follow-up studies failed to replicate the findings and the respected journal “Science” retracted the paper. Researchers posited that the study’s inaccurate conclusions were the result of contamination of the lab samples, and the theory that a virus might be the source of the still-mysterious condition died.
But Mikovits’s conviction that her theory was correct, and her belief that the top scientific minds in the United States conspired to ruin her career, never faded.
She has now accused the scientific establishment of conspiracy again. In a film called “Plandemic,” and in a recently published book that topped the Amazon bestsellers chart this week, she makes a bizarre and false claim: that the doctors and experts shaping public policy in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic have silenced dissenting voices and misled the public for sinister reasons.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/08/plandemic-judy-mikovits-coronavirus/
William Barr and his henchmen must be held accountable
We take a moment in the midst of a pandemic, which, because of the negligence of this administration has killed more than 75,000 Americans and sent the United States into a record-setting recession, to note another assault on the rule of law by the most corrupt president and attorney general in history.
The Post reports:
The unraveling of Flynn’s guilty plea marked a stunning reversal by the Justice Department in its case against the retired three-star Army general, who was convicted in the course of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
The stated reason is false and irrelevant. The Justice Department claims that the investigation into the now-former national security adviser was about to be dropped until the FBI interviewed Flynn, after discussing the possibility he might lie. There is nothing untoward about this. It in no way should vitiate Flynn’s guilty plea. Former House impeachment counsel Norman Eisen tells me, “Barr’s latest perversion of [the] DOJ is shocking. Flynn has repeatedly admitted his guilt in U.S. District Court.” Eisen adds, “The four pages of FBI emails and notes revealed last week changed nothing. They did not affect his culpability or undermine [the] DOJ’s and the FBI’s work, as I explained at the time.”
Rep. Adam B. Schiff (R-Calif.), who served as the lead impeachment manager, tweeted his reaction:
https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1258484733559930880
Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, who also served as an impeachment manager, excoriated Barr in a written statement: “The decision to drop the charges against General Flynn is outrageous. The evidence against General Flynn is overwhelming,” Nadler stated. “He pleaded guilty to lying to investigators. And now a politicized and thoroughly corrupt Department of Justice is going to let the President’s crony simply walk away. Americans are right to be furious and worried about the continued erosion of our rule of law.” Nadler called for a new inspector general’s investigation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/08/next-administration-must-investigate-barr-his-henchmen/
The country's chief law enforcement officer is a criminal. How low we have sunk with this corrupt administration in office.
The White House's coronavirus cure is even more magical than we could have imagined
We’ve all hoped and prayed for something to save us from this pandemic. Will it be a vaccine? A therapeutic drug? Large-scale testing and tracing? An antibodies-rich llama or pack of virus-sniffing dogs?
Nope. According to the White House, the real coronavirus cure is even more magical: tax cuts.
At least the GOP is consistent.
To today’s Republicans, who long ago abandoned any pretense of fiscal responsibility, tax cuts are the all-purpose remedy for whatever ails the country (or doesn’t). When the economy is good, cut taxes. When the economy is bad, cut taxes. When the deficit is high, cut taxes; when the deficit is low, or has even flipped to surplus, cut taxes then, too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-white-houses-coronavirus-cure-is-even-more-magical-than-we-could-have-imagined/2020/05/07/bde463f4-9097-11ea-a0bc-4e9ad4866d21_story.html
Neiman Marcus, a Symbol of Luxury, Files for Bankruptcy
Source: New York Times
The high-end retailer is the first department store to file for bankruptcy during the coronavirus pandemic.
Neiman Marcus on Thursday became the first major department store group to file for bankruptcy protection during the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a stunning fall that follows the collapse of Barneys New York late last year and comes as shadows gather over chains like Lord & Taylor and J.C. Penney.
At the end of March the coronavirus pandemic temporarily forced the closure of all 43 Neiman Marcus stores, as well as its two Bergdorf Goodman stores and Last Call outlets, all but stopping sales and crushing revenue. But while that may have been the immediate cause of Neiman’s filing, its problems had been building for years. The company took on an untenable amount of debt as part of two leveraged buyouts by private-equity firms, and Neiman’s did not respond quickly enough to changes in shopping habits. Together, those developments left the group in a precarious position even before the virus hit.
The pandemic has been disastrous for the already weakened retail industry. Last month, sales of clothing and accessories fell by more than half. Those numbers are only expected to get worse in April, because many stores were open for at least some of March (e-commerce, a relatively small contributor to total sales for most store chains, is not enough to save them). Earlier this week, J. Crew filed for bankruptcy. Retailers have furloughed employees, slashed corporate salaries and hoarded cash in a desperate attempt to make it to the end of the shutdown. But there is widespread acknowledgment that Neiman Marcus is not likely to be the last retailer to face the brink.
Still, neither Neiman Marcus — nor Bergdorf Goodman — is likely to disappear completely.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/business/neiman-marcus-bankruptcy.html
Trump vetoes congressional resolution limiting his military authority against Iran
President Trump on Wednesday vetoed a measure that would limit his authority to launch military strikes against Iran absent congressional approval — a long-expected move from the commander in chief that had been delayed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
The measure, chiefly sponsored by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), earned bipartisan support on Capitol Hill and came after Trump ordered a drone strike that killed top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani and an Iraqi militia leader in Baghdad. It first passed the Republican-controlled Senate on Feb. 13 on a vote of 55 to 45, and the Democratic-led House passed it, 227 to 186, on March 11.
In a formal statement released by the White House, Trump called the measure a “very insulting resolution” that Democrats introduced as a wedge issue to divide Republicans ahead of the November elections.
“The few Republicans who voted for it played right into their hands,” Trump said in the statement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-vetoes-congressional-resolution-limiting-his-military-authority-against-iran/2020/05/06/ec52845e-8fdf-11ea-8df0-ee33c3f5b0d6_story.html
Trump order to paint border wall black could drive up cost $500 million or more
Source: Washington Post
President Trump is once more pushing to have his border wall painted black, a design change that is projected to add at least $500 million in costs, according to government contracting estimates obtained by The Washington Post.
The president’s determination to have the steel bollards coated in black has fluctuated during the past several years, and military commanders and border officials believed as recently as last fall that they had finally talked him out of it. They consider the black paint unnecessary, costly and a significant long-term maintenance burden, and they left it out of the original U.S. Customs and Border Protection design specifications.
Trump has not let go of the idea, insisting that the dark color will enhance its forbidding appearance and leave the steel too hot to touch during summer months. During a border wall meeting at the White House last month amid the coronavirus pandemic, the president told Jared Kushner and aides to move forward with the paint job and to seek out cost estimates, according to four administration officials with knowledge of the meeting.
“POTUS has changed his mind and now wants the fence painted. We are modifying contracts to add,” said one official involved in the construction effort who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of being fired.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/trump-border-wall-black-paint/2020/05/06/dbda8ae4-8eff-11ea-8df0-ee33c3f5b0d6_story.html
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