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Warpy

Warpy's Journal
Warpy's Journal
July 21, 2022

Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief

MI6 chief Richard Moore said Russia had seen "epic fails" in its initial goals; removing Ukraine's president, capturing Kyiv and sowing disunity in the West.

He was speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, in a rare public appearance.
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"Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks," Mr Moore told the conference in Colorado. "They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike back."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62259179

First, please let this be true. Russia might dig in and try to hold what they've got, but I sincerely doubt that will work long term.

Second, given the incendiary problems at their enlistment offices, Russia is most likely having personnel problems. About all they can do now is scoop gopniks up off the streets and send them out to be targets.

Third, they have gotten roundabout help for off the shelf electronics and now the promise of drones from Iran. While the Iranian drones are likely to be better than the kludge jobs Russia had put together, they're still low altitude and slow and the optics and electronics are still reliant on off the shelf electronics and won't last long. Indirect supplies will take longer than the supplies the west is directly sending to Ukraine, especially if Erdogan smells blood in the water and refuses to let the ships through.

Enough is still getting out of Russia on YouTube to show they've had a real problem selling this war anywhere but the totally rural areas. The government still thinks the people don't matter. I have to think they're going to find out the hard way that they're wrong about that.

July 9, 2022

Great Russian Downgrade Has Begun



This video is fascinating for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that he's right. However, most of us are going to recognize a lot of what he's seeing because it's been happening to us for a long time now.

And yes, food and medication were exempted from sanctions. This is Putin playing games.

I just wonder how much longer he's going to be allowed to make these videos.

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