March 3, 2012

IDIOCRACY: SARAH PALIN’S POPULARITY, TEA PARTY, EXPLAINED BY SCIENCE

"David Dunning, a research psychologist at Cornell University, and his colleagues, have found how “incompetent” people are inherently unable to determine if another person is incompetent or not, or put more bluntly, some people are simply too dumb to know just how dumb they really are, and so they are, in turn, poor judges of stupidity (or intelligence) in others when they see it."

http://www.dangerousminds.net/comments/idiocracy_sarah_palins_popularity_tea_party_explained_by_science

March 2, 2012

The Coming Economic Growth Collapse

"We are about to see an abrupt slowdown in economic growth this year and next. It will be a policy-induced slowdown, not some mysterious event caused by aliens. We have delayed obvious policy actions for so long now that a slowdown is virtually inevitable. There is absolutely no room — or inclination, so far as I can see — for a compromise between the two parties that might conceivably change this outcome. We have pushed more and more major decisions into the post-election lame duck congressional session, making a policy “accident” (and there are no good accidents) more and more likely. This slowdown, which will begin in the second half of 2012 and extend through 2013, could happen rapidly enough to influence the 2012 presidential election. And it certainly won’t help President Obama."

Lots more at link.

http://www.newdeal20.org/2012/03/01/the-coming-economic-growth-collapse-73253/

March 1, 2012

Brazil Takes the Lead In Trying to Prevent Another Senseless War

"Here in the United States, the media – especially the biggest TV and radio media that have the largest audience – have been producing war propaganda about the “threat” from Iran, in a virtual replay of the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  The U.S. Congress, led by neoconservatives and the AIPAC (Israel) lobby, has been pushing to cut off diplomatic solutions.  A resolution currently before the U.S.  Senate would encourage military action against Iran for merely having the “capability” to produce a nuclear weapon – something that Brazil, Argentina, Japan, and other countries with peaceful nuclear energy programs already have."

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/brazil-takes-the-lead-in-trying-to-prevent-another-senseless-war?utm_source=CEPR+feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cepr+%28CEPR%29

or Google-shortened version of link

http://goo.gl/1gl3n

February 27, 2012

Bierdusche für Merkel!

Translation: Beer shower for Merkel. A clumsy waiter (dumkopf!) spills four or five glasses of beer on German Chancellor Angela Merkel. I have to say, she looked pretty cool throughout. Do the Germans drink their beer at room temperature like the Brits?

February 27, 2012

How to be an oil futures speculator

"Simple. You take an option to say, SELL oil in three month’s time. Let’s say the current price is $98 a barrel and the 3-month future price is $103. You think this is hogwash and the price is going to drop to less than $85 within three months. You sell March oil at $103. You pay a deposit to secure ‘your’ oil sale as you paid to secure your oil purchase.
How on earth can you sell oil you don’t have? Simple. Your sell order guarantees a buyer of ‘your’ oil in March at $103 – in effect, someone has contracted to buy your oil at $103 a barrel in March. This is someone betting against you, buying March oil at $103/barrel, just like you did in the first example. Come March, you MUST buy your oil at $103/barrel, or pay you the difference between the March price and $103.

If the price in March is only $85 a barrel (as you predicted) then you just buy oil at $85 a barrel (the current price) and sell it to the guy who contracted (unwisely) to buy it from you at $103! You pocket the $18 difference! Of course, no oil ever changes hands. This is just a paper exercise. Also, oil is just one of thousands of possible futures ‘plays’ you could make. There is nothing special about oil. I am just using this as an example.

Who is the ‘mug’ who contracted to buy from you at $103. Why, just another punter, like you buy who thought the opposite to you. He thought the price was going to $120 and then YOU were the ‘mug’ for contracting to sell him March oil at ‘just’ $103 a barrel. He was looking forward to scamming you out of your oil at the giveaway price of $103, and selling it immediately for $120 and pocketing the $15 difference. He could have been right, of course. In which case, he would have won, you would have lost. This is just 1 barrel of oil but imagine if you had to buy 1000 barrels at $103 and sell to him at $120, thus losing $17,000! Ouch!"

http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/academy/selling-short.html

February 25, 2012

German Mardi Gras

The political floats are great. Check out the slideshow.

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-78897-9.html

February 21, 2012

By some measures the US government debt situation is worse than the Eurozone periphery

"If one were to make a quick comparison of the US budget situation to that of the other highly indebted nations, would the US stand out? Most rightfully point to the deficit number. It's a horrible situation for the US, though if measured as a percentage of the GDP, the US' 8.6% number is not materially different from say Japan, the UK, and Greece, though higher than Spain, Portugal, and particularly Italy (which is just under 4%). It's sad, but at least the US has some "company" in its "misery".

But this deficit comparison breaks down if the governments' revenue is viewed as a percentage of what it spends. On that basis, the US is actually worse than any of the Eurozone periphery nations as well as the UK and Japan. The US government generates some 65 cents for every dollar it spends, while even Greece has managed to keep that number above 80 cents."

We have a taxing problem, Mr. Boehner: not just a spending problem.



http://soberlook.com/2012/02/by-some-measures-us-debt-situation-is.html

February 18, 2012

The .0000063% Election 
How the Politics of the Super Rich Became American Politics


By Ari Berman

"At a time when it’s become a cliché to say that Occupy Wall Street has changed the nation’s political conversation -- drawing long overdue attention to the struggles of the 99% -- electoral politics and the 2012 presidential election have become almost exclusively defined by the 1%. Or, to be more precise, the .0000063%. Those are the 196 individual donors who have provided nearly 80% of the money raised by super PACs in 2011 by giving $100,000 or more each.

'This really is the selling of America,' claims former presidential candidate and Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean. 'We’ve been sold out by five justices thanks to the Citizens United decision.' In truth, our democracy was sold to the highest bidder long ago, but in the 2012 election the explosion of super PACs has shifted the public’s focus to the staggering inequality in our political system, just as the Occupy movement shined a light on the gross inequity of the economy. The two, of course, go hand in hand."

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175504/tomgram%3A_ari_berman%2C_the_politics_of_the_super_rich

February 16, 2012

A Penny for Your Thoughts

The U.S. Mint is facing a problem -- especially during these penny-pinching times. It turns out it costs more to make pennies and nickels than the coins are worth.

And because of that, the Obama administration this week asked Congress for permission to change the mix of metal that goes to make pennies and nickels, an expensive recipe that has remained unchanged for more than 30 years.

To be precise, it cost 2.4 cents to make one penny in 2011 and about 11.2 cents for each nickel.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-wants-cheaper-pennies-nickels-101600840.html?l=1

February 15, 2012

Iran cuts oil exports to six EU countries

Iran has stopped crude supplies to Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands, reports Iran’s Press TV.

­Tehran has fulfilled its threat to retaliate for the EU’s oil embargo, agreed by the bloc in January. Ever since, officials within Iran have been calling to cork the black gold stream to "hostile" European nations, targeting economies weakened by the ongoing financial crisis. On Wednesday, these calls became reality.

Out of the six sanctioned countries, Italy, Spain and Greece account for up to 68 per cent of Iranian oil consumed in Europe. Half of Spanish and a third of Greek oil imports come from that country. The Spanish ambassador to Tehran has voiced deep concerns that the EU embargo would backfire on Madrid’s staggering economy, especially if Iran chooses to take a pre-emptive action.

http://rt.com/news/iran-oil-eu-emabrgo-381/