kristopher
kristopher's JournalLBN only allows one news story per event?
Just noticed a thread posted yesterday on LBN was locked. There were two reasons given - a canned msg in the OP page saying it was "off topic" and a nice personal note at the end pointing me to what was identified as a "duplicate"; even though it was completely different article that had posted 8 hours earlier than my OP (which was only about 20 minutes old when posted).
Sent a question to the locking host asking if the determination of what is a duplicate was actually the accurate, and if so how long the policy had been in effect. Was to yes, it is accurate and it has always been the policy.
My post of NYT article
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101411087
Previous post of UK Reuters article
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101410763
When did this become an example of a "duplicate"?
If that is and/or has been the policy what is the reasoning being limiting the information flow like that?
Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions
WASHINGTON — A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
The declaration by Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, came as President Obama prepares to sign legislation that, if fully implemented, could substantially reduce Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
Prior to the latest move, the administration had been laying the groundwork to attempt to cut off Iran from global energy markets without raising the price of gasoline or alienating some of Washington’s closest allies.
Apparently fearful of the expanded sanctions’ possible impact on the already-stressed economy of Iran, the world’s third-largest energy exporter, Mr. Rahimi said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Iran’s official news agency. Iran just began a 10-day naval exercise in the area.
In recent...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/world/middleeast/iran-threatens-to-block-oil-route-if-embargo-is-imposed.html
"A low estimated cost does not cause a high actual cost"
Duh.
A low estimated cost HIDES a high actual cost in order to obtain a contract under what amounts to fraudulent terms.
The nuclear industry's method is to get a contract with a lowball estimate, spend several hundred million and then raise the price. The sunk cost is the hook that keeps the sucker on the line through a series of similar incremental price escalations.
It has nothing to do with "regulatory ratcheting", it has to do with fraud and a negative learning curve.
Read this thread from 2006
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x54089
Then this:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2468399.ece
And this:
http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/10/problems_seen_in_olkiluoto-type_project_in_china_2930807.html
"Regulatory ratcheting" my ass.
Economics of New Nuclear Reactors: A briefing book for members of the 112th Congress
http://www.psr.org/nuclear-bailout/resources/economics-of-new-nuclear.htmlAll documents listed are available at links provided:
Section One: New Reactors are Expensive and Risky
An Analysis of Market Forces That Make Nuclear Reactors Risky Investments (Mark Cooper, Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont Law School)
The High and Hidden Costs of Nuclear Power (Henry Sokolski, Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, August/September 2010)
Executive Summary of The Economics of Nuclear Reactors: Renaissance or Relapse? (Mark Cooper, Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont Law School)
Financial Analysts Downgrade Nuclear Power in the Wake of Japan Crisis (Compilation of quotes from various sources, 3/15/2011)
Nuclear Power in the Dock (Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Dorn, Forbes, 4/5/2011)
Section Two: Troubled New Reactor Projects
Federal Loan Guarantees for New Reactors: Details of the Current Applicants (Taxpayers for Common Sense)
The Renaissance That Wasn't: A Review of Major Design Problems, Delays, Cost Escalations and Other Negative Financial Indicators in Nuclear Construction since 2008 (Physicians for Social Responsibility)
US Pushes But Reactors Are Lagging (New York Times, 2/1/2011)
Calvert Cliffs 3 Makes No Economic Sense (Op-Ed, The Baltimore Sun, 3/9/2011)
NRG Abandons Project for 2 Reactors in Texas (New York Times, 4/19/2011)
Section Three: Subsidies for Nuclear Power
Wall Street Journal Poll: Most Popular Spending Cut is Subsidies for Nuclear Reactors (Grist, 3/4/2011) with section from Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll
Existing Subsidies and Incentives for New Nuclear Reactors (Physicians for Social Responsibility)
Nuclear Power: Still Not Viable Without Subsidies (Union of Concerned Scientists)
Department of Energy: Loan Guarantee Program Overview (Taxpayers for Common Sense)
Taxpayer Risks with the Loan Guarantee Program (Taxpayers for Common Sense)
Budget Watchdogs See Folly in US Loan Guarantee for Nuclear Power (Christian Science Monitor, 2/16/2010)
Nuclear Socialism: Energy Subsidies of Any Kind Are Bad for Business (Amory Lovins, The Weekly Standard, 10/25/2010)
Exelon CEO: No New Laws Needed to Shift to Cleaner Energy (Dow Jones Newswires, 3/8/2011)
Section Four: The French Nuclear Program
Executive Summary of EPR In Crisis (Dr. Stephen Thomas, Public Services International Research Unit, University of Greenwich's School of Business)
Jumbo Problem Hits France's Grand Nuclear Ambitions (Financial Times, 11/4/2009)
Team France in Disarray (The Economist, 12/2/2010)
Jinxed Plant Slows a Nuclear Rebirth (Wall Street Journal, 12/1/2010)
New Warnings About Cost of Nuclear Power (New York Times, 8/31/2010)
Executive Summary of Policy Challenges of Nuclear Reactor Construction: Cost Escalation and Crowding Out (Mark Cooper, Institute for Energy and the Environment, Vermont Law School)
No the price in the 60s and early 70s wasn't stable. Look at the table.
That is why I posted it - the nuclear industry myth hides behind the ambiguity of poorly presented data. We were seeing dramatic cost escalations before the first plants were even 25% completed.
Your claim that I "have it backwards" has no foundation. Lowballing is a practice that is used to procure a business commitment when the nature of the contract allows for later price escalation. That is why "turnkey" contracts are a deal killer for nuclear vendors. A point you went to great lengths to avoid addressing here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x262189
What do you make of this
The facts do not support blaming cost escalation on environmental protests. The trend for cost escalation was established from the very beginning and continued throughout the bandwagon market.
It is more than legend that the original wave of U.S. nuclear power plants ordered in the 1960's and 1970's experienced massive cost overruns compared to original estimates.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) studied the record of this generation of plants (but did not include the worst cases such as Comanche Peak, Seabrook, and Vogtle), breaking up the results into two-year periods. EIA set out to compare original estimates to actual costs (levelized to constant dollars), and the results were dramatic. It was not a few isolated cases, but a clear pattern of an industry that regularly and catastrophically underestimated its costs:
The EIA found average actual realized nuclear construction costs were 209% - 380% , to almost 4 times, the estimates originally presented at start of construction:
Business Risks and Costs of New Nuclear Power
Craig A. Severance
A far better explanation - and one that is consistent with observed cost estimates vs reality in today's extremely favorable regulatory climate - is that the nuclear industry engaged in a common unethical business practice: They lowballed the price estimates and it caught up with them.
So those wanting to blame environmental opposition need to explain both the early estimate/actual cost trends and the recent estimate/actual cost trends.
Wind Makes Up 80% of Contracts in Brazil's Latest Power Auction
Wind Makes Up 80% of Contracts in Brazil's Latest Power AuctionBy Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress December 22, 2011
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In Brazil's latest power auction earlier this week — a process in which developers bid for contracts with the country's national electricity agency — more than 80% of contracts were for wind projects.
This follows an auction in August that brought in power contracts for wind that were below the bidding price of natural gas plants.
The National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) signed contracts with 42 new power plants worth 1,200 MW — including 39 wind projects totaling more than 976 MW that agreed to an average selling price of US $55 per megawatt-hour, or 5.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. That’s a 1.2 cent per kWh decrease over the average selling price in the August auction.
A combination of resources and policy have helped grow Brazil’s domestic wind market by more than 50% since 2009. With an import on foreign wind turbines, major manufacturers have set up operations within the country that have helped bring down the cost of developing projects. Brazil’s estimated exploitable wind resources are about 143,000 MW of capacity — far surpassing the roughly 100,000 MW of total installed electricity capacity today.
However, wind still only plays a small role in Brazil’s electricity mix, representing only 0.5% of generation...
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/12/wind-makes-up-80-of-contracts-in-brazils-latest-power-auction?cmpid=WNL-Friday-December23-2011
Geothermal Outlook 2012: Despite Difficulties, Industry Will Forge Ahead
Geothermal Outlook 2012: Despite Difficulties, Industry Will Forge AheadDespite some financial and regulatory setbacks, the U.S. geothermal industry will plough ahead next year, finding some refuge in international markets.
By Leslie Blodgett, GEA
December 21, 2011
The U.S. geothermal market adds new projects to its development pipeline each year and 2012 will be no different. The industry will enter January with up to billions of dollars in planned investments. In 2005, geothermal energy became a qualifying renewable for the production tax credit (PTC), sparking new developments and by early 2011, U.S. capacity had swollen to 3,102 MW. Currently, up to 5,745 MW are in development. In May of 2011, Terra-Gen Power and TAS Energy added 2 MW to the 17-MW Beowawe, Nev. plant - the first geothermal project supported by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to begin operations.
But although many U.S. decision-makers have expressed their desire to have renewables in the energy mix, geothermal is still overlooked in Congress. Lou Capuano, founder of geothermal drillers ThermaSource says, "even though most of California's renewables are actually geothermal, it is still the poor stepchild." Funding for projects continues to stymie the industry: "the credit market in the U.S. and in Europe is not doing well, and a lot of our clients are still waiting for funding," he said.
Further, the PTC, which gives developers a tax credit of 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour of geothermal power generated for 10 years, is set to expire at the end of 2013. Congressional committees in both wings are considering extension bills. This will be on the industry's watch list in 2012.
Many developing projects could meet the 2012 deadline. Ormat Technologies has two projects in Nevada: Tuscarora and McGinness Hills, which are expected to reach commercial operation in 2012. Ormat expects these two projects and others to qualify for the cash grant option, including the 29-MW Mammoth Complex, where the generating capacity will expand up to 70 MW.
Boise's US Geothermal is working...
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/12/geothermal-outlook-2012-despite-difficulties-industry-will-forge-ahead?cmpid=WNL-Friday-December23-2011
Canadian Medical Association Journal rips into Japanese govt and radiation exposure
This is a crosspost from Environment and Energy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/11272335
December 21, 2011
...This “arbitrary increase” in the maximum permissible dose of radiation is an “unconscionable” failure of government, contends Ruff. “Subject a class of 30 children to 20 millisieverts of radiation for five years and you're talking an increased risk of cancer to the order of about 1 in 30, which is completely unacceptable. I'm not aware of any other government in recent decades that's been willing to accept such a high level of radiation-related risk for its population.”
Following the 1986 nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Ukraine, “clear targets were set so that anybody anticipated to receive more than five millisieverts in a year were evacuated, no question,” Ruff explains. In areas with levels between one and five millisieverts, measures were taken to mitigate the risk of ingesting radioactive materials, including bans on local food consumption, and residents were offered the option of relocating. Exposures below one millisievert were still considered worth monitoring.
In comparison, the Japanese government has implemented a campaign to encourage the public to buy produce from the Fukushima area, Ruff added. “That response 25 years ago in that much less technically sophisticated, much less open or democratic context, was, from a public health point of view, much more responsible than what’s being done in modern Japan this year.”
Were Japan to impose similar strictures, officials would have to evacuate some 1800 square kilometres and impose restrictions on food produced in another 11 100 square kilometres, according to estimates of the contamination presented by Dr. Kozo Tatara for the Japan Public Health Association at the American Public Health Association's 139th annual meeting and exposition in November in Washington, District of Columbia.
...
http://www.cmaj.ca/site/earlyreleases/21dec11_public-health-fallout-from-japanese-quake.xhtml
Canadian Medical Association Journal: Japan "culture of coverup" and "unconscionable” health risks
December 21, 2011
Public health fallout from Japanese quake
...This “arbitrary increase” in the maximum permissible dose of radiation is an “unconscionable” failure of government, contends Ruff. “Subject a class of 30 children to 20 millisieverts of radiation for five years and you're talking an increased risk of cancer to the order of about 1 in 30, which is completely unacceptable. I'm not aware of any other government in recent decades that's been willing to accept such a high level of radiation-related risk for its population.”
Following the 1986 nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Ukraine, “clear targets were set so that anybody anticipated to receive more than five millisieverts in a year were evacuated, no question,” Ruff explains. In areas with levels between one and five millisieverts, measures were taken to mitigate the risk of ingesting radioactive materials, including bans on local food consumption, and residents were offered the option of relocating. Exposures below one millisievert were still considered worth monitoring.
In comparison, the Japanese government has implemented a campaign to encourage the public to buy produce from the Fukushima area, Ruff added. “That response [in Chernobyl] 25 years ago in that much less technically sophisticated, much less open or democratic context, was, from a public health point of view, much more responsible than what’s being done in modern Japan this year.”
Were Japan to impose similar strictures, officials would have to evacuate some 1800 square kilometres and impose restrictions on food produced in another 11 100 square kilometres, according to estimates of the contamination presented by Dr. Kozo Tatara for the Japan Public Health Association at the American Public Health Association's 139th annual meeting and exposition in November in Washington, District of Columbia.
...
http://www.cmaj.ca/site/earlyreleases/21dec11_public-health-fallout-from-japanese-quake.xhtml
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