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kristopher

kristopher's Journal
kristopher's Journal
August 14, 2015

coal and nuclear, nuclear and coal - 2 sides of the same planet killing coin

The present 'grid' is a system built around extremely large generating plants that burn various fuels in order to make steam that will turn the shaft of a huge generator and produce electricity.

The way to make this system work in the least expensive way possible is to run these plants as much as possible.

Savings are also achieved by making the generating units as large as possible so that there is a reduction in costs by avoiding duplicating things like site work, building foundations, grid connection facilities and so on. It's the same idea as adding living space to your home - it's cheaper to build a larger house than to add extra footage in the form of a detached dwelling with separate electric, sewage, and water hook-ups.

The savings we get from making these plants larger come at a cost, which is lack of flexibility. The generators themselves are so large that shutting them down results in a very time consuming restart process - sometimes on the order to 10+ hours.

In addition to that they also ramp up and down slowly, meaning that if additional power is needed rapidly to prevent a black out, that power must come from a unit that is running but not sending its power to the grid; which of course adds cost and burns fuel. In fact, the large scale thermal grid requires far more back up and standby generation than a renewable based grid.

From this centralized system's functional perspective, coal and nuclear are largely interchangeable because the system is created and operated by a set of economic rules that reward those generators which are best fitting contributors to making it function seamlessly.

This economic and operational model is referred to as "large scale centralized generation".

Dismantling this model - both physical and economic - is the major obstacle slowing the transition to an ultra-low carbon energy system.


The model that emerges for optimizing renewable energy sources is best conceptualized by turning the centralized model on its head. Instead of starting with a large scale centralized producer of electricity needing to be distributed to end users, we start with the end user and look at the best system - economic and technical - to provide for that user's power needs with today's technology. We then link these various residential, commercial and industrial 'microgrids' together in a distribution system that not only shares the strengths of the various contributors, but that also provides a platform allowing them to buy and sell as needs and capacity dictate. This keeps a large part of the money people spend on energy in the local community.

The centralized system isn't capable of doing this.

Pollution, costs and reliability are all improved with a system that is optimized to end user needs. The elements are 'distributed' throughout various end user platforms built around the variable energy sources of solar and wind supplemented with 'dispatch-able' energy sources. Small scale hydro, smaller biofuel fired thermal generators that can switch on and off rapidly; geothermal plants, hundreds of different methods of end user and system storage; 'smart' distribution;strong and a focus on energy efficiency investment are a few of the additional tools available to round out the solar/wind core.

The way these elements fit together to build a 'distributed grid' create a system of economic rewards that is completely incompatible with the economic rewards of grid built to promote and service the needs of large scale thermal generating plants.

Within this context, coal and nuclear are but two sides of the same coin.

With that said, let me add that the examples below are predicted by a famous paper written by Amory Lovins about 40 years ago: Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken
http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/E77-01_EnergyStrategyRoadNotTaken


Experts urge coal, nuclear energy future
Natural gas supplies drying up, they say
12 Aug 2015 at 03:48
APINYA WIPATAYOTIN

Thailand must build more coal-fired and new nuclear power plants to meet its energy needs and strengthen energy security as future supplies of natural gas are uncertain, engineers said yesterday.

Academics from Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Engineering made the comments at a press briefing Tuesday.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha late last month ordered the halt of a planned coal-fired power plant and seaport in southern Krabi province after protests against the projects. He appointed a panel comprising representatives from the government, National Reform Council, National Legislative Assembly and public sector to discuss alternative solutions, including renewable energy options.

Pinyo Meechumna, from Chulalongkorn's Department of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, said the country's energy security was at risk as its power plants rely too heavily on natural gas. Of the country's natural gas consumption, 70% is domestically produced while the rest is purchased from neighbouring countries.

He said if this situation continued...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/652472/experts-urge-coal-nuclear-energy-future


And Not Coincidentally...


Law curbing public assembly takes effect in Thailand
Source: AP NEWS

A protester shows the three-finger salute during an anti-coup demonstration in Bangkok last year. Pic: AP.

BANGKOK (AP) — A new law has come into effect in Thailand that curbs public gatherings and bans protests at the prime minister’s office, airports and various other public places.

Human rights groups have criticized the Public Assembly Act and its stiff penalties. It is the latest restrictive measure put in place since the military ousted an elected government in a coup last year. The coup followed years of political demonstrations that led to violence and often paralyzed the country’s capital.

The law that took effect Thursday requires protesters to inform police about rallies at least 24 hours before they are held. It bans demonstrations within 150 meters (500 feet) of government offices, courts, airports, train and bus stations.

Deputy government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd called the law “a necessity for Thailand.”
http://asiancorrespondent.com/134796/law-curbing-public-assembly-takes-effect-in-thailand/


We see that same trend within current hard-right Japanese government - exemplified by the draconian states secrets law they passed to help enable wrenching the nation back onto the hard energy path.

Abe’s secrets law undermines Japan’s democracy
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2014/12/13/commentary/japan-commentary/abes-secrets-law-undermines-japans-democracy/

A bit more from an old classmate...
Japan Passes Draconian Secrecy Bill Into Law: Journalists, Whistleblowers are now “terrorists”
POSTED BY JAKEADELSTEIN ON SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2013
December 9th, Tokyo* (Updated from December 7th post)

The Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (LDP) led ruling coalition passed the ominous new Designated Secrets Bill yesterday in the middle of the night on December 7th (Friday, Tokyo time), apparently fearing that the light of another day, or the harsh radiation of the truth, would cause the legislation to shrivel up and die. The ruling government cut off debate and forced a vote in the upper house of Japan’s parliament, The Diet, before the clock could strike midnight. 130 were in favor, 82 were opposed.

The law will punish journalists and whistleblowers who divulge government secrets with up to ten years in prison, and up to five years for those who “instigate leaks” (ask questions about state secrets). There is no independent third-party organization set in place to monitor how the law is applied and it gives every ministry and the smallest government agency or related committee carte blanche to declare any inconvenient information “top secret.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the LDP, Komeito, and “Your Party” relentlessly pushed the bill forward, despite a sudden dip in cabinet support rates to below 50% and increasing opposition within Japan and the world. Earlier this week, the LDP Secretary General, Shigeru Ishiba, labeled the growing protests “tantamount to terrorism” which prompted more public outcry. There were estimated to be 15,000 people outside Japan’s parliament (The Diet) chanting in protest when the bill was passed.

We don’t know what will be a secret. We don’t know who will be kept private under this law. And it’s a law that doesn’t inform the citizens of anything, so I oppose it… The current administration is slowly trying to create a country that has the ability to fight a war. I’ll continue to fight against this law, because it is the beginning of such a country. —Unemployed, 53, Yoriko W●●●, who protested the bill on December 6th.



More at http://www.japansubculture.com/japan-passes-draconian-secrets-law-journalists-whistleblowers-are-now-terrorists/
August 14, 2015

Ford Survey Finds 90% Of Electric Car Owners Plan To Stick With Electric Drive

Ford Survey Finds 90% Of Electric Car Owners Plan To Stick With Electric Drive
August 13th, 2015 by Steve Hanley

A new survey of plug-in hybrid and electric car drivers by Ford Motor Company finds that 90% of the 10,000 people surveyed like driving a plug in hybrid or electric car and have no plans to go back to driving a gasoline-powered car in the future.

Most of those who participated in the survey said that driving an electric car was just a nicer experience that driving a gasoline vehicle. Some of the reasons why this is so include that electric cars are quieter than their gasoline cousins. That seems to lead people to believe they have a smoother, more comfortable ride. Many respondents also singled out environment benefits as a primary motivator for their decision to drive an electric car.

Stephanie Janczak, Ford’s manager of electric vehicle infrastructure and technology, said in a recent interview with CleanTechnica that most all-electric drivers say they would stay with that type of car in the future while plug-in hybrid owners were more inclined to consider switching to an all-electric vehicle for their next vehicle. The driving experience and an appreciation of clean technology were cited by many as the main reasons for staying electric, she said.

The survey also found a strong correlation between electric car ownership and renewable energy use. Ford says 83% of drivers surveyed either would consider installing solar panels at their homes or already have them. Using a home solar array to charge an electric car helps further reduce its carbon footprint, by limiting reliance on non-renewable grid sources used to power it. The state of California was one of the first to identify a clear relationship between electric-car ownership and home-solar use in a 2012 survey of electric car drivers that found 39% had solar power

Smartphone apps can also be an important part of electric-car ownership...
http://gas2.org/2015/08/13/ford-survey-finds-90-electric-car-owners-satisfied/
August 12, 2015

Wind blows away coal's market share in Iowa

Short story: 2010-2015 Coal's contribution dropped from 70% yo 50% while wind's contribution rose from 17% - 36%.

Wind blows away coal's market share in Iowa
By Charlotte Cox
Last Updated: 8/12/2015

Iowa's reliance on coal for power generation is quickly eroding, and Alliant Energy Corp. subsidiary Interstate Power & Light Co.'s settlement with the U.S. EPA will accelerate the shift in the state's generation portfolio.

Coal fired half of the state's net generation in May, a marked decrease from the 70% it provided during the same month five years earlier. Now, coal-fired generation only surpasses the 3,500 GWh mark during the peak summer months in July and August. Meanwhile, wind's share of the state's net generation has grown immensely, powering 36% in May, up from a 17% share in the same month in 2010.

According to calculations by the EPA, Iowa's CO2 emissions rate in 2012 was 2,195 lbs/MWh. The EPA projects that the state will emit CO2 at a rate of 1,456 lbs/MWh in 2020 without the Clean Power Plan, and the state has a final goal of 1,283 lbs/MWh by 2030 and beyond. Currently, Iowa about 6,300 MW of operating coal capacity, which will decrease with upcoming retirements and conversions. IPL's settlement, announced July 15, will see the utility close several coal plants or convert some of them to natural gas by 2025.

The state also has almost 5,700 MW of operating wind capacity and an additional 700 MW of wind capacity currently in advanced development or under construction. Projects in advanced development are further along the development pipeline and more likely to continue through to completion, and the status indicates that the project has satisfied two of the following five criteria: financing is in place; a power purchase agreement is signed; turbines are secured; required permits are approved; or a contractor has signed on to the project.

Although gas fueled just 3% of Iowa's net generation in May, decreased reliance on coal may lead to an increased reliance on gas....
https://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-33460897-12072

August 12, 2015

Bankruptcy 101: a primer for U.S. coal markets

"The goal is to produce a plan that shows the business can be sustainable. If it's approved by the judge, the firm can re-emerge from bankruptcy. If no plan is approved, the firm may be sold or just go extinct."

Bankruptcy 101: a primer for U.S. coal markets
Saqib Rahim, E&E reporter
EnergyWire: Tuesday, August 11, 2015


...The many maladies of the U.S. coal industry have forced dozens of coal firms into business purgatory: Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. Alpha, the United States' second-largest publicly listed coal business, followed in the footsteps of Walter Energy Inc., Patriot Coal Corp., James River Coal Co. and dozens of smaller players that have filed in the last two years.

Two of Alpha's rivals, Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., are still standing, but their financial fragility means bankruptcy can't be ruled out.

Companies that go through a Chapter 11 "restructuring" will have to take a hard look -- with their investors, and in front of a judge -- at what their businesses can be in the future. It will not be an easy question to answer.

"It's very hard for people to produce a reliable forecast that says, 'Here's where the bottom is,'" said Stephen Arbogast, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School. "So it's an extraordinarily open and painful restructuring that's going to be a combination of consolidation through Chapter 11 and outright liquidation. Because nobody can see any growth and nobody knows where the bottom is."...

More at http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060023244
August 12, 2015

(Coal Company CEO) Blankenship repeats request to keep UBB disaster out of trial

Blankenship repeats request to keep UBB disaster out of trial
by Ken Ward Jr., Staff writer

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Defense lawyers for former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship this week are again insisting that evidence about the Upper Big Branch Mine Disaster be kept from the jury when the criminal case against Blankenship goes to trial in October.

In a new court filing, Blankenship’s attorneys argue that evidence about the April 5, 2010, explosion that killed 29 miners “is not relevant to any of the offenses” alleged in a three-count felony indictment against Blankenship.

Blankenship’s defense team filed their 12-page legal brief late Monday, in reply to a response in which prosecutors argued against Blankenship’s initial motion to prevent any evidence about the mine disaster from being considered by the jury.

...

Blankenship faces three felony counts alleging that he conspired to violate federal mine safety standards, worked to thwart U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration inspectors and lied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and to the investing public, about Massey’s safety practices. Blankenship says he is innocent.

While the indictment does not specifically...
http://www.wvgazettemail.com/article/20150811/GZ01/150819919
August 12, 2015

Dominion admits cost of North Anna 3 (nuclear reactor) will top $19 billion

Dominion admits cost of North Anna 3 will top $19 billion
August 10, 2015 by Ivy Main

Dominion Virginia Power is projecting that the capital cost of a third nuclear reactor at its North Anna facility will total over $19 billion, according to filings in its 2015 biennial review before the State Corporation Commission (PUE-2015-00027).

This works out to over $13,000 per installed kilowatt, according to the testimony of Scott Norwood, an energy consultant hired by the Attorney General’s Department of Consumer Counsel to analyze Dominion’s earnings evaluations. He notes that this capital cost is “approximately ten times the capital cost of the Company’s new Brunswick combined cycle unit,” which will burn natural gas.

As a result of this high capital cost, the “total delivered cost of power from NA3 is more than $190 per MWh in 2028.” That translates into 19 cents per kilowatt-hour.

By comparison, in 2014 the average wholesale price of electricity in the PJM region (which includes Virginia) was 5.3 cents per kWh. Dominion currently sells electricity to its customers at retail for between 5.5 and 11 cents/kWh.

In other words, NA3 is ridiculously expensive...
http://powerforthepeopleva.com/2015/08/10/dominion-admits-cost-of-north-anna-3-will-top-19-billion/


See also: Study Finds … Price of Wind Energy in the United States is at an All-time Low (avg. < 2.5 ¢/kWh)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112789580
August 12, 2015

Court accuses EPA of ‘filibustering’ on pesticide safety

Court accuses EPA of ‘filibustering’ on pesticide safety
By Timothy Cama - 08/11/15 11:24 AM EDT

?itok=59NCZczl
Getty Images


A federal court scolded the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for continually delaying a formal response to a request that it restrict a pesticide’s use.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ordered the EPA late Monday to either issue a new regulation concerning the use of the pesticide chlorpyrifos or issue some other complete, formal response to the request by the end of October, more than eight years after conservation groups first filed the petition.

“Although filibustering may be a venerable tradition in the United States Senate, it is frowned upon in administrative agencies tasked with protecting human health,” the court wrote in its opinion.
“We recognize the scientific complexity inherent in evaluating the safety of pesticides and the competing interests that the agency must juggle,” the judges said. “However, EPA’s ambiguous plan to possibly issue a proposed rule nearly nine years after receiving the administrative petition is too little, too late.”

The court ruled that the EPA’s continued delays are “egregious,” and granted requests from the Pesticide Action Network North America and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) to force the EPA to act...
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/250822-court-accuses-epa-of-filibustering-on-pesticide-safety
August 12, 2015

EIA Analysis: Wind Energy Is The Lowest-Cost Option For Reducing Carbon Emissions

EIA Analysis: Wind Energy Is The Lowest-Cost Option For Reducing Carbon Emissions
in News Departments > Policy Watch
by Michael Goggin on Thursday 28 May 2015
(Editor's note: The following article was reprinted with permission by the American Wind Energy Association.)


Low-cost, zero-emission wind energy will become even more valuable as states and utilities develop plans to cost-effectively reduce carbon pollution to comply with Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan, according to new economic analysis from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a nonpartisan branch of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

EIA's analysis modeled a range of options for complying with EPA's proposed rule across a variety of scenarios, and wind energy consistently emerged as the lowest-cost option for reducing emissions.

World Resources Institute (WRI) also released analysis that looked at all economy-wide options for reducing carbon pollution and found that, thanks to recent cost declines, renewable energy is poised to make the largest contributions to emissions reductions. In WRI's optimal energy mix scenarios, renewable energy grew to provide 27% - 28% of electricity in 2030 and 36% - 38% in 2040.

...


EIA's analysis shows that states and utilities can cost-effectively achieve the Clean Power Plan, particularly if wind energy provides a large share of the pollution reductions. As a result, states and grid operators should begin planning today for the policies and transmission upgrades that will enable them to make full use of their best wind energy resources.

Thanks to its combination of low cost and zero emissions, wind energy played a dominant role in complying with the Clean Power Plan in EIA's analysis...
http://www.nawindpower.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.14275
August 12, 2015

China Advised to Double Solar Goal to Fill Nuclear, Hydro

China Advised to Double Solar Goal to Fill Nuclear, Hydro
August 11, 2015

China is being encouraged by three industry groups to double the nation’s solar-power goal for 2020 to fill a gap forecast to emerge because nuclear and hydropower are due to fall short of targets.

The world’s biggest solar market needs 200 gigawatts of such capacity by then, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.

China Photovoltaic Industry Association, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association and China Renewable Energy Society, which act as conduits between the government and industry, jointly wrote the document and advised the energy authority in the State Council.

The advice, if accepted, would boost solar installations sixfold, spurring demand for manufacturers including Trina Solar Ltd. and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. China had about 33 gigawatts of solar power at the end of 2014, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data.

The nation intends to get 15 percent of all energy from renewables and nuclear power by 2020, up from 11 percent last year....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/china-advised-to-double-solar-goal-to-fill-nuclear-hydro

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