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Buzz Clik

Buzz Clik's Journal
Buzz Clik's Journal
April 8, 2016

The Sanders crowd is highly emotionally invested in this Vatican story.

Sanders's lie is the second of two huge fibs in less than a week.

That's gotta sting.

March 13, 2016

About these polls: I think CBS/YouGov has it figured out.

Not everyone likes polls, but a well designed poll can be highly informative. Michigan last week on the Dem side did not have good polling numbers, for a bunch of reasons. After standing back, digging in, and discussing this, it was clear that Michigan was NOT an anomaly but a warning about poorly constructed polls.

With about 1/3 of the states' primaries in our rear view mirror and lots of polling data, the pollsters are starting to figure it out. Specifically, CBS/YouGov seems to be nailing it: they have Sanders leading Clinton by 2% in Illinois, a state that fits the Michigan model: an open primary with similar demographics.

I'm going by the assumption that CBS/YouGov has good numbers. So, let's take a look at their poll numbers:

  • Illinois: Clinton 46%, Sanders 48%
  • Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
  • Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%
    (I cannot find any other YouGov polls for this Tuesday)

    Resulting delegate split: Clinton 279, Sanders 234
    (I'm giving Sanders ALL the undecideds, so this is best case scenario for Sanders with these poll numbers)

    ===========

    Giving Missouri to Sanders by 10% and NC to Clinton by 10%, those delegates get split Clinton 91, Sanders 88

    My projected total for Tuesday only: Clinton 370; Sanders 321

    Running total (pledged only): Clinton 1,145; Sanders 871





  • January 8, 2016

    The anatomy of voting, and voting with one's anatomy.

    I saw a thread in which Susan Sarandon is quoted as saying she doesn't "vote with my vagina." Is that even possible? I was trying to imagine such a thing, and drew a blank -- punch cards, butterfly ballot, voting machine, electronic voting. Nothing.

    You don't have to explain how, but is it possible to vote with one's vagina?

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/128094059

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