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geek tragedy
geek tragedy's Journal
geek tragedy's Journal
April 4, 2016
1. Anytime you see someone citing "unadjusted exit polls" they are a quack, a fraud, and a charlatan.
An essential part of exit poll methodology is to weight them by turnout. If they sample voters at two precincts, they can't properly weight the exit poll results from those precincts until they know how many people voted at those precincts, relative to the entire state. Unadjusted exit polls give only very, very rough estimates, and are completely worthless for picking a winner in a reasonably close race, such as Michigan or Massachusetts this year.
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html
2. Exit polls often get it wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html?_r=0
Please, don't believe bullshit some crank tells you on the Internet because it's what you want to believe.
Public service announcement: 'unadjusted' exit polls and the hucksters who tout them are misleading
also posted in Gee-dee-pee, where the latest conspiracy theory has also been posted1. Anytime you see someone citing "unadjusted exit polls" they are a quack, a fraud, and a charlatan.
An essential part of exit poll methodology is to weight them by turnout. If they sample voters at two precincts, they can't properly weight the exit poll results from those precincts until they know how many people voted at those precincts, relative to the entire state. Unadjusted exit polls give only very, very rough estimates, and are completely worthless for picking a winner in a reasonably close race, such as Michigan or Massachusetts this year.
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html
2) The mid-day numbers do not reflect weighting by actual turnout – the end-of-day exit poll used to assist the networks in determining winners will be weighted by the actual turnout of voters at each selected precinct. The weighting will then be continuously updated to reflect turnout at comparable precincts. In the past, mid-day numbers have reflected a weighting based on past turnout, so the leaked mid-day numbers may tell us nothing about the impact of new registrants or the unique level of turnout this time.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
2. Exit polls often get it wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html?_r=0
The imperfections of the exit polls are not hard to show. Here are two quick examples, based on official voter turnout statistics:
The exit polls showed that voters over age 65 were 18 percent of the electorate in Iowa in 2008, but 26 percent in 2012. The official state turnout statistics instead show that the share increased to 23.6 percent, from 21.9 percent, over the same span.
In North Carolina, the exit polls showed that the black share of the electorate dropped to 23 percent in 2008, from 26 percent in 2004, and held steady at 23 percent in 2012. The state turnout statistics say the share rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 22.3 percent in 2008, and then to 23.1 percent in 2012.
The exit polls showed that voters over age 65 were 18 percent of the electorate in Iowa in 2008, but 26 percent in 2012. The official state turnout statistics instead show that the share increased to 23.6 percent, from 21.9 percent, over the same span.
In North Carolina, the exit polls showed that the black share of the electorate dropped to 23 percent in 2008, from 26 percent in 2004, and held steady at 23 percent in 2012. The state turnout statistics say the share rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 22.3 percent in 2008, and then to 23.1 percent in 2012.
Please, don't believe bullshit some crank tells you on the Internet because it's what you want to believe.
April 4, 2016
An essential part of exit poll methodology is to weight them by turnout. If they sample voters at two precincts, they can't properly weight the exit poll results from those precincts until they know how many people voted at those precincts, relative to the entire state. Unadjusted exit polls give only very, very rough estimates, and are completely worthless for picking a winner in a reasonably close race, such as Michigan or Massachusetts this year.
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html
2. Exit polls often get it wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html?_r=0
Please, don't believe bullshit some crank tells you on the Internet because it's what you want to believe.
PSA: 'unadjusted' exit polls and conspiracy theorists who tout them are misleading
1. Anytime you see someone citing "unadjusted exit polls" they are a quack, a fraud, and a charlatan.An essential part of exit poll methodology is to weight them by turnout. If they sample voters at two precincts, they can't properly weight the exit poll results from those precincts until they know how many people voted at those precincts, relative to the entire state. Unadjusted exit polls give only very, very rough estimates, and are completely worthless for picking a winner in a reasonably close race, such as Michigan or Massachusetts this year.
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html
2) The mid-day numbers do not reflect weighting by actual turnout – the end-of-day exit poll used to assist the networks in determining winners will be weighted by the actual turnout of voters at each selected precinct. The weighting will then be continuously updated to reflect turnout at comparable precincts. In the past, mid-day numbers have reflected a weighting based on past turnout, so the leaked mid-day numbers may tell us nothing about the impact of new registrants or the unique level of turnout this time.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
2. Exit polls often get it wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html?_r=0
The imperfections of the exit polls are not hard to show. Here are two quick examples, based on official voter turnout statistics:
The exit polls showed that voters over age 65 were 18 percent of the electorate in Iowa in 2008, but 26 percent in 2012. The official state turnout statistics instead show that the share increased to 23.6 percent, from 21.9 percent, over the same span.
In North Carolina, the exit polls showed that the black share of the electorate dropped to 23 percent in 2008, from 26 percent in 2004, and held steady at 23 percent in 2012. The state turnout statistics say the share rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 22.3 percent in 2008, and then to 23.1 percent in 2012.
The exit polls showed that voters over age 65 were 18 percent of the electorate in Iowa in 2008, but 26 percent in 2012. The official state turnout statistics instead show that the share increased to 23.6 percent, from 21.9 percent, over the same span.
In North Carolina, the exit polls showed that the black share of the electorate dropped to 23 percent in 2008, from 26 percent in 2004, and held steady at 23 percent in 2012. The state turnout statistics say the share rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 22.3 percent in 2008, and then to 23.1 percent in 2012.
Please, don't believe bullshit some crank tells you on the Internet because it's what you want to believe.
April 4, 2016
Because Chris Christie was unavailable?
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/palin-dead-boar-wisconsin-trumpFormer Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin posted a photograph Sunday of her posing with a dead boar in an effort to convince Wisconsin voters to support Donald Trump ahead of the state's GOP primary Tuesday.
April 4, 2016
Why does the NY Primary polling suck so much?
For such a big state with all the attention on it, I haven't seen a single good poll done here other than Siena, and theirs is pretty stale.
The last several polls don't have a party registration screen--this should be a no-brainer in establishing a likely voter model. If someone isn't a registered Democrat, they can't be a likely voter in the primary, as they are guaranteed to not be voting in it.
This isn't the same as asking them whether they ID as a Democrat or Independent, all they need to do is ask what the registration is.
Oy.
April 4, 2016
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html
The article also shows the campaign advisors blaming Sanders for not working hard enough on the campaign trail and doing too many big rallies. Devine and Weaver are poison.
Report: Sanders opposed going after Clinton on speeches, advisors pushed him to do it
The first pre-mortem is out, in the NY Times:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html
Despite the urging of some advisers, Mr. Sanders refused last fall and early winter to criticize Mrs. Clinton over her $675,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs, an issue that he now targets almost daily. He also gave her a pass on her use of private email as secretary of state, even though some allies wanted him to exploit it. And he insisted on devoting time to his job as a senator from Vermont last year rather than matching Mrs. Clinton’s all-out effort to capture the nomination. Some advisers now say that if he had campaigned more in Iowa, he might have avoided his critical loss there.
...
In October, as they gathered at a hotel outside Las Vegas to prepare for the first Democratic debate, Mr. Sanders’s advisers urged him to challenge Mrs. Clinton over accepting $675,000 from Goldman Sachs for delivering three speeches, according to two Sanders advisers. They thought the speaking fees meshed with the senator’s message about Wall Street excess and a rigged America. But Mr. Sanders, hunched over a U-shaped conference table, rejected it as a personal attack on Mrs. Clinton’s income — the sort of character assault he has long opposed. She has the right to make money, he offered.
...
In October, as they gathered at a hotel outside Las Vegas to prepare for the first Democratic debate, Mr. Sanders’s advisers urged him to challenge Mrs. Clinton over accepting $675,000 from Goldman Sachs for delivering three speeches, according to two Sanders advisers. They thought the speaking fees meshed with the senator’s message about Wall Street excess and a rigged America. But Mr. Sanders, hunched over a U-shaped conference table, rejected it as a personal attack on Mrs. Clinton’s income — the sort of character assault he has long opposed. She has the right to make money, he offered.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html
The article also shows the campaign advisors blaming Sanders for not working hard enough on the campaign trail and doing too many big rallies. Devine and Weaver are poison.
Mr. Devine said the senator might have won Iowa’s caucuses if he had spent a few more days wooing voters in the western and rural parts of the state. “In retrospect, it would have been better to have spent a little less time in New Hampshire and some more time in Iowa, but New Hampshire was our flank, and he had to defend it,” Mr. Devine said.
The senator won New Hampshire by more than 20 percentage points.
Mr. Sanders also resisted pleas to do the kind of retail-style campaigning that Iowa voters like. He wanted to do more large rallies instead, even though many Iowans like politicians winning them over face-to-face.
“Bernie would say, ‘If I’m at a diner having a cup of coffee, I don’t want candidates coming up talking to me,’ ” Mr. Devine said.
The senator won New Hampshire by more than 20 percentage points.
Mr. Sanders also resisted pleas to do the kind of retail-style campaigning that Iowa voters like. He wanted to do more large rallies instead, even though many Iowans like politicians winning them over face-to-face.
“Bernie would say, ‘If I’m at a diner having a cup of coffee, I don’t want candidates coming up talking to me,’ ” Mr. Devine said.
April 4, 2016
He's a regular guest on Democracy Now
http://www.democracynow.org/appearances/david_cay_johnston
He has written articles praising the tax policies of Bernie Sanders.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/david-cay-johnston-agree-bernie-sanders-article-1.2521997
He, not David Brock, not Peter Daou, not Hillary Clinton, is the one who broke the Sanders tax disclosure issue recently.
http://www.nationalmemo.com/why-hasnt-bernie-sanders-released-his-tax-returns/
Bernie Sanders is not being persecuted. This is a legit issue of transparency that he will have to address, and it's either a sign of political malpractice or something else that he's getting caught off guard by this.
David Cay Johnston is a renowned investigative reporter, Glenn Greenwald is a fan of his
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cay_JohnstonHe's a regular guest on Democracy Now
http://www.democracynow.org/appearances/david_cay_johnston
He has written articles praising the tax policies of Bernie Sanders.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/david-cay-johnston-agree-bernie-sanders-article-1.2521997
He, not David Brock, not Peter Daou, not Hillary Clinton, is the one who broke the Sanders tax disclosure issue recently.
http://www.nationalmemo.com/why-hasnt-bernie-sanders-released-his-tax-returns/
Bernie Sanders is not being persecuted. This is a legit issue of transparency that he will have to address, and it's either a sign of political malpractice or something else that he's getting caught off guard by this.
April 4, 2016
I guarantee it will be worth your time. I will post some context in a comment to the thread after enough responses have been compiled.
please vote in this poll
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511641904I guarantee it will be worth your time. I will post some context in a comment to the thread after enough responses have been compiled.
April 4, 2016
"Until they release full returns, this exercise is more about politics than real transparency,”
Is this kind of statement indicative of people holding politicians accountable on transparency and disclosure, or is it just something David Brock invented so he could attack Bernie Sanders?
I'd like to see where the DU community stands on whether the demand for transparency in tax returns is legit and should be/already is expected of all candidates for President, or something that has been ginned up conveniently this past week to support the Clinton campaign.
Post title is a direct quote from an article criticizing Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for a similar lack of full disclosure:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-tax-returns-219905
April 4, 2016
Isn't it amazing, that Hillary Clinton, destroyer of worlds, practitioner of the dark arts
for the 1%, not once mentioned Sanders's failure to match her level of disclosure of personal finances while he was hitting her night after night over the stupid transcripts non-issue?
Do the Bernie people have an explanation for this oddity?
April 3, 2016
"Bernie might get 1 extra delegate from this. Took 8 hours.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CJBear71/status/716411383282147328
Long story short: DNC rules mandate that district level delegates reflect caucus voting, not county convention voting.
Hillary won Nevada.
No, Bernie Sanders did NOT win Nevada.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CJBear71/status/716411383282147328/photo/1"Bernie might get 1 extra delegate from this. Took 8 hours.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CJBear71/status/716411383282147328
Long story short: DNC rules mandate that district level delegates reflect caucus voting, not county convention voting.
Hillary won Nevada.
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