The people in this camp don’t agree on everything, but they foresee a nightmarish (and fairly plausible) scenario for Democrats, and they’re proposing a series of steps to avoid that calamity. Here’s the Democratic nightmare: Biden and congressional Democrats pass a few major bills over the next two years but leave the filibuster in place, preventing the passage of major reforms to America’s electoral system. A federal judiciary stacked with Trump appointees strikes down all or parts of many of the laws the Democrats do pass as well as many of Biden’s executive actions, leaving Democrats few permanent policy victories and driving down the president’s approval ratings.

Meanwhile, Republicans use their control of most state legislatures to draw state legislative and U.S. House district lines in ways that are even more favorable to the GOP than the current ones and enact laws that make it harder for liberal-leaning voting blocs to cast ballots. Combine gerrymandering, voting limitations, lackluster poll numbers for Biden and the historic trend of voters rejecting the party of the incumbent president in a midterm election, and it results in the Republicans winning control of the House and the Senate and making even more gains at the state legislative level in November 2022.

Post-2022, Republicans in Congress block everything Biden tries to do, further driving down his approval ratings. Meanwhile, Republicans use their enhanced power at the state level to continue to adopt laws that make it harder for people in liberal-leaning constituencies to vote and harder for Democrats to win in swing states. Then, these laws are upheld by lower courts and a U.S. Supreme Court still packed with Trump appointees. In 2024, Biden (or whomever the Democrats nominate) wins the popular vote but still loses the Electoral College — in part because Republicans have limited Democratic votes in some swing states. A GOP with control of the White House, Senate, House and most state governments in 2025 then effectively creates a system of “minority rule” in which Republicans can keep control of America’s government for decades even if the majority of voters favor Democrats as well as liberal and left-of-center policies.

In this scenario, the Democratic Party is in peril, but in some ways so is American democracy more broadly. So to this camp, Democrats must act aggressively and quickly over the next two years to forestall this outcome, by getting rid of the filibuster as it currently operates (most legislation requires 60 votes to pass in the Senate) and enacting an aggressive “democracy agenda.” This is a pro-democratic (small “d”) agenda in many ways, particularly in giving residents of Washington, D.C., representation in Congress and enhancing protections of the right to vote for Black Americans who live in GOP-dominated states. But it’s also clearly a pro-Democratic agenda (big “D”) in that it would, for example, add the two senators from D.C., who would almost certainly be Democrats.

A new poll conducted by Spry Strategies on behalf of Women’s Liberation Front found that a majority of likely 2020 voters disagree with policies related to “gender identity,” such as those included in the proposed Equality Act, that would remove protections for women in single-sex spaces such as prisons, shelters, and sports. The results are based on a national sample of 3,500 likely voters and include detailed representation across regions, ethnicity, sex, and political affiliation. Black and Hispanic voters are more likely to support protections for single-sex spaces, especially on issues such as prison and homelessness which disproportionately impact communities of color.



Key Results

Voters overwhelmingly disapprove of policies that allow the placement of male sexual offenders or domestic abusers in women’s prisons, with only seven percent of voters supporting such policies. Two out of every three likely voters (66.93 percent) state that they “strongly disagree” with such policies, including a majority of liberal voters who disagree with such policies.

The poll also revealed cross-partisan disapproval of “gender identity” based policies, such as those impacting single-sex sports. The majority of voters of all parties (66.96 percent) state that men or boys who identify as transgender should not be permitted to compete in women and girls’ athletics.

A majority of voters also disagree with allowing men who identify as transgender in women’s changing rooms (56.86 percent) and homeless shelters (53.19 percent).