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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Warren's Exception to the Top-dollar Fundraisers Pledge

In the political climate in which the 2020 election is taking place with Trump raking in millions in campaign funds, I have no problem with Democratic Presidential candidates raising money in high-end fundraisers.

That being said, Biden received a great deal of criticism for his giving the nod for super PAC support. Therefore, it is fair to mention that other candidates, including Warren, have done what they needed to do to raise the dollars they need. The following artice brings this to our attention.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/10/30/warrens_no_top-dollar_fundraiser_pledge_includes_big_caveat_141622.html
Warren’s No Top-Dollar Fundraiser Pledge Includes Big Caveat
By Brian Slodysko & Will Weissert
October 30, 2019

WASHINGTON (AP) — Dozens of donors enjoyed a white-tablecloth dinner, an open bar and sweeping views of the U.S. Capitol this month when Elizabeth Warren strode on stage to headline a Democratic National Committee fundraiser. The setting was similarly swanky in August, when Warren addressed party contributors at the ornate Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco. And it’s likely to be much the same in December, when Warren is slated to headline another party fundraiser in Boston.
The Massachusetts senator has become a leading Democratic presidential candidate in part because she has pledged to forgo events with high-dollar donors, which has resonated with progressives who believe wealthy donors have outsized political influence. But Warren has a notable exception for fundraisers that take in big money for her party, a practice she plans to continue if she becomes the Democratic nominee to take on President Donald Trump.
Warren is already under scrutiny for seeding her presidential campaign with money she raised while running for the Senate, when she spent millions of dollars on fundraisers and took money from large donors. While that’s common practice, the money transfers and the fundraisers for the national party committee could undermine Warren’s image as a relentless fighter for the middle class who would rather spend hours taking selfies with supporters than schmoozing with elite donors.
“She’s a great candidate,” said Don Fowler, who ran the DNC for two years under President Bill Clinton and hasn’t endorsed any of his party’s White House hopefuls. “She’s just off-step on this particular point.”
Fowler and other Democratic leaders say Warren isn’t being honest about her fundraising plans if she were to become the party’s nominee. They say she can’t tell voters she is personally shunning big-dollar fundraisers while simultaneously headlining state and national party events at which she would raise millions of dollars from major donors supporting her bid for the White House.


We need to cut some slack for candidates to do what must be done to bring down Trump. Election reform is at the top of the list of needed reforms and it can be implemented when it is fairly applied to all candidates whatever their party affiliation. In the meantime, more power to our candidates in bringing in big bucks.

538's take on the Disparity between polls like CNN/SSRS and Quinnipiac.

This issue has cropped up here a number of time vis-à-vis Biden Friendly and Warren friendly polls.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-up-15-warren-up-7-are-primary-polls-too-far-apart/?ex_cid=2020-tracker
Oct. 31, 2019, at 5:58 AM
Biden Up 15. Warren Up 7. Are Primary Polls Too Far Apart?
By Laura Bronner

Last week, two polls painted two very different pictures of the state of the primary race. A CNN/SSRS poll put former Vice President Joe Biden 15 points ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 34 percent to 19 percent, while a Quinnipiac University poll released a day later found Biden trailing Warren by 7 points, 21 to 28 percent.

As both The New York Times and The Washington Post pointed out, these are pretty large discrepancies for two polls in the field at roughly the same time (the CNN poll was in the field from Oct. 17-20, the Quinnipiac poll from Oct. 17-21). But trying to figure out which poll is more accurate is kind of beside the point. After all, these are only two polls of a primary that has been polled hundreds of times, and it isn’t necessarily a problem that two pollsters arrived at different conclusions.


In analyzing October polls, it was found that the random sampling variability and found by analyzing all national Democratic primary polls for October that "the spread between all the October polls is way outside the range of standard deviations for what we would expect — for both Biden and Warren." (See link for chart).

That suggests that it isn’t just sampling error that’s driving the differences we’re seeing — it implies there are some real methodological differences between the polls. Pollsters regularly use different approaches to polling, sampling and weighting, which can often lead to different outcomes. This is actually a good thing, since there’s a lot of uncertainty about the electorate in 2020 and it’s important that different pollsters make independent decisions about how to analyze it. This is why it’s important to control for variations in pollsters’ techniques when analyzing individual polls. Each pollster’s preferred methodology tends to make its results lean a little toward one party or to certain candidates — these leans are commonly known as “house effects,” and they can help explain some of the variation we’re seeing.


Adjusting fr "house effects" they found that
o
...this tell us about those CNN and Quinnipiac polls? In short, the fact that they found such different outcomes isn’t that big a deal. As you can see in the chart below, once we control for house effects, the overall spread between polls since May isn’t actually all that large. In fact, the spread of values for both Biden and Warren fall within a range we might expect. So don’t read too much into those two polls. Turns out they’re just the kind of outliers we’d expect to see in this range of polls.


Very interesting. And to conclude on a high note, they provided a char"t to put thee two polls in perspective in ration to of all national polls for Biden and Harris since May 2019 "adjusted for House effects" and taking sample size into consideration..



I find this to be a very intriguing chart of Biden's and Warren's trajectories. Aside from the issue of the two mentioned polls, all the poll averages show Biden showing a long pretty steady course and Warren surging and then slipping a bit near the end of October. Pretty much like my Corps d'Elite poll showed (new version up when the last of the October polls show up).

SC Poll (Change Research, C+): Biden 30, Warren 19, Sanders 13

https://www.changeresearch.com/south-carolina-poll-october-15-21
The Post and Courier/Change Research

Was this posted? Anyway, here it is
South Carolina Poll: October 15-21, 2019

Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary with 30%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (19%), Bernie Sanders (13%), Kamala Harris (11%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Tom Steyer (5%), Andrew Yang (4%), Tulsi Gabbard (3%), Cory Booker (3%), and Amy Klobuchar (3%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

Key Takeaways: ​​

Joe Biden (30%), Elizabeth Warren (19%), and Bernie Sanders (13%) lead among Democratic primary voters in South Carolina after the October Democratic primary debate.
Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters; Biden leads among voters 35 years and older.
Among black voters, Biden (38%) has a 21-point lead over Harris (17%), followed by Warren (12%). Warren (26%) leads Biden (20%) among white voters, followed by Sanders (17%).

Change Research surveyed 1,683 likely general election voters in South Carolina, including 731 likely Democratic primary voters, after the fourth Democratic primary debates. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following the race to 2020. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll.



UPDATE: Corps d'Elite Day-by-Day Presidential Tracking Poll-October: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17

New YouGov Poll out. The good news is that Biden is up three though this does not show in the tracking averages. Always friendly to Warren, she is up a tab, but the bad news is that Sanders took a dip. Scroll down for previous chart.


Previous compilation:


Data Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Commentary:
Biden is rising, Warren flattening, and Sanders coming up on Warren.

Disclaimer:
All averages are mine alone. 538 does not provide averages. I am going cross-eyed reading polls and calculating. All errors are mine alone and any corrections, additions, or comments on the method will be appreciated.numbers

This is a work in progress. A & B rated polls(538) are tracked with day-by-day averages of polls available for each day with an aggregate average as given above. This provides a daily tracking so that trends can be seen rather than simply lumping all polls together with arbitrary listing of the number of polls covered. I am going from the October Debate until the November debate. However, aggregate averages can be made at any point.

Noel

I opened up the thread and saw three hit pieces n Biden

He must be doing well.

NEW: A & B-rated October Poll Averages (Top Tier): Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 16 (Biden +6)

I have adopted crazytown’s(Warren) suggestion to do only A and B rated (538) polls. Others have suggested eliminating HarrisX. Sinxce thia ia C+ rated poll, it will no longer be considered (along with Change Research, Zogby Analytics, USC Dornsife/LA Times, McLaughlin & Associates, and the D- Survey Donkey. We will also not consider polls that are not rated, such as Civiqs, unless there are some overwhelming factors to consider.

So Biden ranges roughly 25-30, Warren 20-25, and Sanders 15-20

Average 9/26-22: Biden 27.7, Warren 22.0, Sanders 16.4 (Biden +5.7)
NOTE: Similar RCP averages: Biden27.2, Warren21.8, Sanders17.3

YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: Biden 24(-1), Warren 21(-7), Sanders 15(+2) [Biden +3]
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: Biden 21(-6), Warren 28(-2), Sanders 15(+2) [Warren +7]
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: Biden 34(+10), Warren 19(+1), Sanders 16(+1) [Biden +15]
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: Biden 27(+2), Warren 21(+2), Sanders 25(+2) [Biden]
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: Biden 30(-2), Warren 21(0), Sanders 18(-3) [Biden +9]
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: Biden 24(+3), Warren 17(+2), Sanders 15(0) [Biden +7]
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: Biden 32(-1), Warren 22(+3), Sanders 17(0) [Biden +10]
FOX News A (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32(+3), Warren 22(+6), Sanders 17(-1) [Biden +10]
IBD/TIJPP A- (RV) 9/26-10/3 Biden 26(-2), Warren 27(+3), Sanders 10(-2) [Watren +1]


All pols reach into or are solely in October. FOX and IBD/TIPP are before the October debate. Eliminat them does not change the averages by much since they balance out.
() indicates the +/- from previous poll of any pollster. Some polls are frequent, some occasional. The latter may go back as far as August or September, but at least we get some feeling for the tracking of the polls.
Only the latest of any one poll is given.

Curiously, FOX News and SUSA had the same figures in early October if I am not mistaken.

Source:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Disclaimer: 538 does not give averages. I have added them. Please let me know if I have inadvertently made any errors.




Morning Joe: Biden, Warren leading 2020 field in separate polling - Oct. 24, 2019

Link:
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-warren-leading-2020-field-in-separate-polling-71956037666

snip//

Former VP Joe Biden is maintaining his lead among 2020 Democrats in new polling, and could Trump's attacks on him be helping his numbers? Also, a new Quinnipiac Poll shows Sen. Warren in the lead.

At least they got it right about Biden, but they love the Quinnipiac Poll!

UPDATE: All Post October Debate Poll Averages: Biden 27.2, Warren 20.4, Sanders 18.8 (Biden +6.8)

Lest we forget: Biden is the clear frontrunner, Bernie rebounds (Warren surge leveling off?)

Candidates: Biden Warren Sanders
Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27.2 20.4 18.8 (Biden +6.8)
McLaughlin & Associates C- (LV) 10/17-22: 28, 16, 18 (Biden +10 Over Sanders)
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 [15 (Warren +7)
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 (Biden +15)
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 ( Biden +3)
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 (Biden +8)
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 (Biden +2 over Sanders)
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 (Biden +9)
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 (Biden +7)
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 (Biden +10)


Links:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

New Poll (C-): Biden double digit lead, Rebounding Sanders bests Warren 18 to 16

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Oct 17-22, 2019
McLaughlin & Associates C- 468 LV

Biden 28% [Biden +10]
Sanders 18%
Warren 16%
Harris 6%
Yang 6%
All others, including Buttigieg under 5%

For what it is worth.

Joe Biden, in Scranton, Says Trump Owes Current Economy to Obama Years

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/us/politics/joe-biden-scranton-speech.html

snips//

In a speech that was billed as an outline of Mr. Biden’s economic policy, the former vice president attacked President Trump’s biggest argument for re-election. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. accused President Trump of “squandering” the economy he inherited from the Obama administration, and promised to reverse Mr. Trump’s tax cuts.

SCRANTON, Pa. — Joseph R. Biden Jr. returned to his native city on Wednesday seeking to undermine President Trump’s strongest argument to voters for re-election: the resilient economy. He accused Mr. Trump of inheriting an economic upturn, but “just like everything else he inherited, he’s in the midst of squandering it.”

Mr. Biden’s speech was billed as an economic policy address, yet it was light on new plans; he repeated many ideas he has previously advanced. Instead, he made an emotional appeal rooted in his middle-class biography to restore the “values” of an American compact, in which hard work allowed average families to afford a home, higher education and health care.

“There used to be a basic bargain in America: If you contribute to the well-being of the outfit you work with, you got to share in the benefits,” Mr. Biden said, speaking to a few hundred in a downtown auditorium. “That bargain’s been broken.”

Although corporate profits are up, Mr. Biden said, middle-class wages are stagnant and families are buckling under the burden of health bills and college. He promised to undo Republican tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy.

***

Mr. Biden hit many of the same themes later in a lengthy speech he gave in West Point, Iowa, where he again talked about his family story and cast Mr. Trump as impervious to the needs of the middle class. He also took several veiled swipes at Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will soon detail her plans to pay for “Medicare for all.”

Mr. Biden supports building on the Affordable Care Act and adding a public option, but has suggested Medicare for all is unrealistic and too expensive.

“My competitors are really well-meaning people,” he said, but added: “None of them told you how Medicare for all is going to be paid for.”
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After the event, Mr. Biden, in response to a question from a reporter, again expressed regret for his 1998 use of the term “partisan lynching” in a discussion about impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton. Mr. Biden had also tweeted an apology on Tuesday for using the term.

“I was wrong to have said it and I apologize for having said it,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday.

But he also criticized Mr. Trump for using the term “lynching,” with its legacy of racist murders of African-Americans, to describe the impeachment inquiry he currently faces. Mr. Trump, he argued, was using the term “as a dog whistle.”

“When has he ever taken, when has he ever said a negative thing about a white supremacist?” Mr. Biden said of the president. “Have you heard him say anything? I haven’t.”

Mr. Biden’s appearance in Scranton came the same day that a new CNN national poll showed him with a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, with the support of 34 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters, followed by Ms. Warren at 19 percent and Senator Bernie Sanders at 16 percent. It is Mr. Biden’s widest lead in the CNN survey since shortly after he announced his bid for president.

But there is no national primary, of course, and Mr. Biden’s advantage in the early-primary states Iowa and New Hampshire has ebbed or evaporated. The CNN survey is a sign that nationally he has retained strong support despite facing weeks of unproved attacks by Mr. Trump on him and his son Hunter over their activities in Ukraine, an issue driving the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry.

Mr. Biden’s economic prescriptions, less sweeping than those of other leading Democrats seeking the nomination, include a $15 federal minimum wage, tripling funding for schools with at-risk students, free community college and a plan for students to pay down their college debt by committing to community service.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is only 3.9 percent, though it is 5.2 percent in Lackawanna County, where Scranton is. But a manufacturing downturn may be underway statewide, with 8,100 jobs lost this year so far, an issue that could cut into the president’s 2016 promises to restore industry in the Rust Belt.

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While Mr. Biden visited Scranton, in northeast Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump was scheduled to be in Pittsburgh, in the western part of the state, on Wednesday afternoon, to address natural gas drillers. The president’s visit comes close to the first anniversary of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting in that city, when a gunman killed 11 worshipers.

Though Democrats made strong gains in the 2018 midterms in Pennsylvania, it is very much up in the air whether they will carry the state next year, and who would be their most formidable opponent to the president. Mr. Trump has held rallies both before and after his election at an arena in nearby Wilkes-Barre that drew some 10,000 people.

Although Hillary Clinton narrowly carried Lackawanna County, Mr. Trump cut deeply into the Democratic margin of more than 26,000 votes that Barack Obama piled up here in 2012.

Democrats have been arguing ever since about how to recapture those voters, mostly white and working class, and how much to focus on them. Mr. Biden, who is regarded warmly by many Pennsylvanians thanks to his history here, spent many minutes recounting family stories he has told regularly: his father moving alone to Delaware for a job but promising to send for the family when he could afford to; his father feeling ashamed when a bank turned him down for a loan to pay for his son’s college. His father telling young “Joey” that “the measure of success is not whether you get knocked down, it’s how quickly you get up.”

The split-screen moment in Pennsylvania comes after weeks of clashes between the Trump and Biden camps. In the last month, Mr. Biden has faced concerns from some Democrats over whether he was responding quickly and aggressively enough to Mr. Trump’s attacks. His campaign has settled on a strategy of frequently criticizing Mr. Trump and seeking to discredit his messages, while also focusing on policy matters — health care in particular.



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