November 2, 2019

Faux News relishing Sanders and Biden camps trading barbs

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-hits-biden-where-it-hurts-suggests-hes-losing-working-class-support

CONCORD, N.H. – Minutes after filing for his second New Hampshire presidential primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders took aim Thursday at former Vice President Joe Biden and suggested he's losing support among crucial working-class voters considered the core of his political base.

Sanders hit at the new super PAC supporting Biden, and the Biden camp hit at the cost of M4A.

Sanders as felt rud abut his small donor donations, noting the following:

And taking a shot at the former vice president, whose fundraising has lagged far behind both Sanders and Warren, Sanders said: “Joe, as I understand it, has not done particularly well in getting a lot of donations from working-class people.”

This, of course, has been reversed as Biden collected over 5 million dollars in online contributions in October.

At least FOX got the polls right.

SANDERS, WARREN, BIDEN, TOP THREE IN LATEST NH PRIMARY POLL

The latest poll in the Granite State, from the University of New Hampshire and CNN, indicated Sanders with a slight 21-18 percent edge over Warren among likely Democratic presidential primary voters, with Biden at 15 percent.

So the gloves are coming off as the primaary race heats up.

November 2, 2019

Trump repeatedly lashed out at Joe Biden at campaign rally

From Axelrod and the Hill 11/01
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/468652-trump-singles-in-on-sleepy-joe-biden-at-campaign-rally

Trump knows who his worst rival would be--the one who will "beat him like a drum!"

This is the most telling art of the article.

President Trump during a campaign rally Friday repeatedly singled out former Vice President Joe Biden as he continues to rail against one of his top political rivals.

Some observers have hinted that Trump’s repeated bashing of Biden could indicate a concern from the his campaign that the former vice president could pose a serious challenge next year, particularly among white working class workers who traditionally vote Democrat but backed Trump in 2016.
While polls show a competitive race in the Democratic primary contest, several national and swing state surveys show Biden besting the president in a hypothetical 2020 matchup.

The Hill is not very Biden friendly. In another article they mentioned that Biden was "slipping" in the polls. Huh?

Steady as she goes, Joe.

November 2, 2019

HarrisX Poll (C+) sneaks in Hillary.

It is a Biden and Sanders friendly poll and Biden beats Hillary out by 1%. Hope she sees that in her deliberations! The also, however, had another poll sans Hillary. Here they are but they wont be included in my upcoming poll tracker for Oct 15 (post-debate) to 11/1 (the Iowa Dem dinner)

Both polls 10/29-31 (RV)

1.The Sneaky Hillary Poll
Biden 19
H.Clinton 18
Warren 13
Sanders 12
Etc (singe digits)

2.The sans Hillary Poll
Biden 33
Warren 15
Sanders 18

November 2, 2019

Warren's Exception to the Top-dollar Fundraisers Pledge

In the political climate in which the 2020 election is taking place with Trump raking in millions in campaign funds, I have no problem with Democratic Presidential candidates raising money in high-end fundraisers.

That being said, Biden received a great deal of criticism for his giving the nod for super PAC support. Therefore, it is fair to mention that other candidates, including Warren, have done what they needed to do to raise the dollars they need. The following artice brings this to our attention.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/10/30/warrens_no_top-dollar_fundraiser_pledge_includes_big_caveat_141622.html
Warren’s No Top-Dollar Fundraiser Pledge Includes Big Caveat
By Brian Slodysko & Will Weissert
October 30, 2019

WASHINGTON (AP) — Dozens of donors enjoyed a white-tablecloth dinner, an open bar and sweeping views of the U.S. Capitol this month when Elizabeth Warren strode on stage to headline a Democratic National Committee fundraiser. The setting was similarly swanky in August, when Warren addressed party contributors at the ornate Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco. And it’s likely to be much the same in December, when Warren is slated to headline another party fundraiser in Boston.
The Massachusetts senator has become a leading Democratic presidential candidate in part because she has pledged to forgo events with high-dollar donors, which has resonated with progressives who believe wealthy donors have outsized political influence. But Warren has a notable exception for fundraisers that take in big money for her party, a practice she plans to continue if she becomes the Democratic nominee to take on President Donald Trump.
Warren is already under scrutiny for seeding her presidential campaign with money she raised while running for the Senate, when she spent millions of dollars on fundraisers and took money from large donors. While that’s common practice, the money transfers and the fundraisers for the national party committee could undermine Warren’s image as a relentless fighter for the middle class who would rather spend hours taking selfies with supporters than schmoozing with elite donors.
“She’s a great candidate,” said Don Fowler, who ran the DNC for two years under President Bill Clinton and hasn’t endorsed any of his party’s White House hopefuls. “She’s just off-step on this particular point.”
Fowler and other Democratic leaders say Warren isn’t being honest about her fundraising plans if she were to become the party’s nominee. They say she can’t tell voters she is personally shunning big-dollar fundraisers while simultaneously headlining state and national party events at which she would raise millions of dollars from major donors supporting her bid for the White House.

We need to cut some slack for candidates to do what must be done to bring down Trump. Election reform is at the top of the list of needed reforms and it can be implemented when it is fairly applied to all candidates whatever their party affiliation. In the meantime, more power to our candidates in bringing in big bucks.

November 1, 2019

538's take on the Disparity between polls like CNN/SSRS and Quinnipiac.

This issue has cropped up here a number of time vis-à-vis Biden Friendly and Warren friendly polls.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-up-15-warren-up-7-are-primary-polls-too-far-apart/?ex_cid=2020-tracker
Oct. 31, 2019, at 5:58 AM
Biden Up 15. Warren Up 7. Are Primary Polls Too Far Apart?
By Laura Bronner

Last week, two polls painted two very different pictures of the state of the primary race. A CNN/SSRS poll put former Vice President Joe Biden 15 points ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 34 percent to 19 percent, while a Quinnipiac University poll released a day later found Biden trailing Warren by 7 points, 21 to 28 percent.

As both The New York Times and The Washington Post pointed out, these are pretty large discrepancies for two polls in the field at roughly the same time (the CNN poll was in the field from Oct. 17-20, the Quinnipiac poll from Oct. 17-21). But trying to figure out which poll is more accurate is kind of beside the point. After all, these are only two polls of a primary that has been polled hundreds of times, and it isn’t necessarily a problem that two pollsters arrived at different conclusions.

In analyzing October polls, it was found that the random sampling variability and found by analyzing all national Democratic primary polls for October that "the spread between all the October polls is way outside the range of standard deviations for what we would expect — for both Biden and Warren." (See link for chart).

That suggests that it isn’t just sampling error that’s driving the differences we’re seeing — it implies there are some real methodological differences between the polls. Pollsters regularly use different approaches to polling, sampling and weighting, which can often lead to different outcomes. This is actually a good thing, since there’s a lot of uncertainty about the electorate in 2020 and it’s important that different pollsters make independent decisions about how to analyze it. This is why it’s important to control for variations in pollsters’ techniques when analyzing individual polls. Each pollster’s preferred methodology tends to make its results lean a little toward one party or to certain candidates — these leans are commonly known as “house effects,” and they can help explain some of the variation we’re seeing.

Adjusting fr "house effects" they found that
o

...this tell us about those CNN and Quinnipiac polls? In short, the fact that they found such different outcomes isn’t that big a deal. As you can see in the chart below, once we control for house effects, the overall spread between polls since May isn’t actually all that large. In fact, the spread of values for both Biden and Warren fall within a range we might expect. So don’t read too much into those two polls. Turns out they’re just the kind of outliers we’d expect to see in this range of polls.

Very interesting. And to conclude on a high note, they provided a char"t to put thee two polls in perspective in ration to of all national polls for Biden and Harris since May 2019 "adjusted for House effects" and taking sample size into consideration..



I find this to be a very intriguing chart of Biden's and Warren's trajectories. Aside from the issue of the two mentioned polls, all the poll averages show Biden showing a long pretty steady course and Warren surging and then slipping a bit near the end of October. Pretty much like my Corps d'Elite poll showed (new version up when the last of the October polls show up).

November 1, 2019

SC Poll (Change Research, C+): Biden 30, Warren 19, Sanders 13

https://www.changeresearch.com/south-carolina-poll-october-15-21
The Post and Courier/Change Research

Was this posted? Anyway, here it is
South Carolina Poll: October 15-21, 2019

Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary with 30%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (19%), Bernie Sanders (13%), Kamala Harris (11%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Tom Steyer (5%), Andrew Yang (4%), Tulsi Gabbard (3%), Cory Booker (3%), and Amy Klobuchar (3%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

Key Takeaways: ​​

Joe Biden (30%), Elizabeth Warren (19%), and Bernie Sanders (13%) lead among Democratic primary voters in South Carolina after the October Democratic primary debate.
Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters; Biden leads among voters 35 years and older.
Among black voters, Biden (38%) has a 21-point lead over Harris (17%), followed by Warren (12%). Warren (26%) leads Biden (20%) among white voters, followed by Sanders (17%).

Change Research surveyed 1,683 likely general election voters in South Carolina, including 731 likely Democratic primary voters, after the fourth Democratic primary debates. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following the race to 2020. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll.

October 30, 2019

UPDATE: Corps d'Elite Day-by-Day Presidential Tracking Poll-October: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17

New YouGov Poll out. The good news is that Biden is up three though this does not show in the tracking averages. Always friendly to Warren, she is up a tab, but the bad news is that Sanders took a dip. Scroll down for previous chart.


Previous compilation:

Data Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Commentary:
Biden is rising, Warren flattening, and Sanders coming up on Warren.

Disclaimer: All averages are mine alone. 538 does not provide averages. I am going cross-eyed reading polls and calculating. All errors are mine alone and any corrections, additions, or comments on the method will be appreciated.numbers

This is a work in progress. A & B rated polls(538) are tracked with day-by-day averages of polls available for each day with an aggregate average as given above. This provides a daily tracking so that trends can be seen rather than simply lumping all polls together with arbitrary listing of the number of polls covered. I am going from the October Debate until the November debate. However, aggregate averages can be made at any point.

Noel

October 29, 2019

I opened up the thread and saw three hit pieces n Biden

He must be doing well.

October 27, 2019

NEW: A & B-rated October Poll Averages (Top Tier): Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 16 (Biden +6)

I have adopted crazytown’s(Warren) suggestion to do only A and B rated (538) polls. Others have suggested eliminating HarrisX. Sinxce thia ia C+ rated poll, it will no longer be considered (along with Change Research, Zogby Analytics, USC Dornsife/LA Times, McLaughlin & Associates, and the D- Survey Donkey. We will also not consider polls that are not rated, such as Civiqs, unless there are some overwhelming factors to consider.

So Biden ranges roughly 25-30, Warren 20-25, and Sanders 15-20

Average 9/26-22: Biden 27.7, Warren 22.0, Sanders 16.4 (Biden +5.7)
NOTE: Similar RCP averages: Biden27.2, Warren21.8, Sanders17.3

YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: Biden 24(-1), Warren 21(-7), Sanders 15(+2) [Biden +3]
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: Biden 21(-6), Warren 28(-2), Sanders 15(+2) [Warren +7]
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: Biden 34(+10), Warren 19(+1), Sanders 16(+1) [Biden +15]
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: Biden 27(+2), Warren 21(+2), Sanders 25(+2) [Biden]
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: Biden 30(-2), Warren 21(0), Sanders 18(-3) [Biden +9]
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: Biden 24(+3), Warren 17(+2), Sanders 15(0) [Biden +7]
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: Biden 32(-1), Warren 22(+3), Sanders 17(0) [Biden +10]
FOX News A (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32(+3), Warren 22(+6), Sanders 17(-1) [Biden +10]
IBD/TIJPP A- (RV) 9/26-10/3 Biden 26(-2), Warren 27(+3), Sanders 10(-2) [Watren +1]

All pols reach into or are solely in October. FOX and IBD/TIPP are before the October debate. Eliminat them does not change the averages by much since they balance out.
() indicates the +/- from previous poll of any pollster. Some polls are frequent, some occasional. The latter may go back as far as August or September, but at least we get some feeling for the tracking of the polls.
Only the latest of any one poll is given.

Curiously, FOX News and SUSA had the same figures in early October if I am not mistaken.

Source:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Disclaimer: 538 does not give averages. I have added them. Please let me know if I have inadvertently made any errors.

October 26, 2019

Morning Joe: Biden, Warren leading 2020 field in separate polling - Oct. 24, 2019

Link:
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-warren-leading-2020-field-in-separate-polling-71956037666

snip//

Former VP Joe Biden is maintaining his lead among 2020 Democrats in new polling, and could Trump's attacks on him be helping his numbers? Also, a new Quinnipiac Poll shows Sen. Warren in the lead.

At least they got it right about Biden, but they love the Quinnipiac Poll!