April 21, 2020

Analysis of Relative Covid-19 Mortality of Hannity Viewers

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202044.pdf

We study the effects of news coverage of the novel coronavirus by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States —Hannity andTucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News — on viewers’ behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by the coronavirus from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the risks associated with the virus before gradually adjusting his position starting late February.

...

First, we document that greater viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. The relationship is stable across an expansive set of robustness tests. To better identify the effect of differential viewership of the two shows, we employ a novel instrumental variable strategy exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast in relation to local sunset times. These estimates also show that greater exposure t Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is associated with a greater number of county-level cases and deaths. Furthermore, the results suggest that in mid-March, after Hannity’s shift in tone, the diverging trajectories on COVID-19 cases begin to revert. We provide additional evidence consistent with misinformation being an important mechanism driving the effects in the data. While our findings cannot yet speak to long-term effects,they indicate that provision of misinformation in the early stages of a pandemic can have important consequences for how a disease ultimately affects the population.

April 19, 2020

Too much data, not enough road

Hmmm... I guess I have to adjust my setup for the new computer.

April 17, 2020

Can you name two things that "Dr. Phil" and "Dr. Oz" have in common?

It appears that both "Dr. Phil" and "Dr. Oz" graduated from the Trump University School of Medicine, and they have been given a platform to spew nonsense to stupid and gullible people. While their normal trade of dispensing idiotic advice on supplements and quack therapies keeps them in business, they seem to have taken up a new specialty in epidemiology. Here, for example, is Dr. Phil comparing covid-19 to auto accidents, swimming pools and other non-communicable causes of death:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1250975504401760256


So, that's one thing that both of these ersatz doctors have in common.

Can anyone identify something else that Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz have in common?

April 17, 2020

Only 17 days remaining, if you want to hire Michael Avenatti as your attorney....

While he's been released with an ankle monitor for the time being, Michael Avenatti received further news this week from the State Bar of California.

A regular feature of DU legal commentary is calling for the disbarment of one or another lawyer - usually for things that don't have anything to do with the practice of law in the jurisdiction in which they are licensed.

To get an idea of how long it takes, and how hard it is to actually have a licensing authority revoke a law license, consider the fact that Orly Taitz, the crazy birther lawyer who was sanctioned by two different federal courts for her nutty antics, remains a lawyer in good standing in the state of California.

Well, that gives her one up on Michael Avenatti who, STILL, will remain a licensed lawyer in California until May 4, 2020:



The other good news, of course, is that if he remains released on home confinement, and the Democratic Convention goes virtual, then he'll be able to give his acceptance speech without violating the terms of his release.


------ on edit ---

If you are curious about the "acts specified in subdivisions (a) and (c)" of rule 9.20, the pertinent portion states:

9.20 Order To Fuck Yourself

The Court may order such persons as it deems fit to fuck:

(a) yourself;

(b) with such implement as may be further stated; and

(c) the horse you rode in on.

April 16, 2020

On the topic of "hiding deaths"

Since this pops up from time to time, I thought I'd make an OP to address the persistent dumb idea that merely because a death certificate does not say "covid-19" on it, that a wide ranging cross-country conspiracy of doctors and state vital statistics offices will manage to "cover up" excess deaths.

The reason we know how many people were killed by, for example, Hurricane Maria, is because we know, within a very tight range, how many people die from all causes on a regular basis.

Anyone familiar with Blue Oyster Cult's, "Don't Fear the Reaper" is a little out of date, since the current figure is around 150,000 deaths per day from all causes worldwide.

If something unusual is killing a lot of people, you can't actually hide that, regardless of what you put on a death certificate.

It is a simple matter to plot, for any given period of time, the measured number of deaths from all causes, and to compare that measured number to averages for the same time period in previous years.

For example, here is what it looks like for London, UK:



It's pretty easy to see that, as a rough approximation, about 1500 more people died in London in the first week of April than would normally happen.

Here is a plot of mortality for all of England for the last several years, showing expected and actual results:



This is a different visualization of England and Wales:



Sure, some causes, like auto accidents, are reduced right now, but that doesn't really have much impact on the overall picture for, say, New York City:



So you can easily see that there is a substantial spike in deaths in NYC well beyond any confirmed figure of "covid-19 deaths" that simply can't be "hidden", even if someone in NYC was inclined to do so.

This plot, from the Netherlands, is a good one to consider. It shows overall recent excess mortality (registered deaths - expected deaths) in different age groups, compared to deaths identified as 'covid-19' deaths:



From that sort of data, the undercount of officially-identified covid-19 deaths can be readily worked out with reasonable accuracy, since there are not too many other things causing substantial senior deaths (other than a chunk of them which might be attributable to various medical facilities or procedures being difficult to obtain at the moment).

April 13, 2020

Twitter Is Reeling From The Disappointment Re: Avenatti's Temporary Release

The last line is a total buzzkill

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/judge-releases-michael-avenatti-from-jail-over-virus-threat

A judge has allowed Michael Avenatti to be temporarily freed from a federal jail in New York City and to ride out the coronavirus epidemic at a friend’s house in Los Angeles.

...

On Friday, U.S. District Judge James Selna said Avenatti may stay at the home of Jay Mannheimer, near Venice Beach, during the 90-day release period but he first must get tested for the coronavirus illness and be quarantined for 14 days at a Federal Bureau of Prisons facility. He must also post $1-million bond and wear an electronic monitoring bracelet. The judge forbade Avenatti to use any digital devices with internet access.

April 13, 2020

Supreme Court Resets Briefing Dates In Trump Tax Return Cases

The Vance and Mazur's cases both deal with investigative inquiries into Trump's tax returns.

April 13, 2020

Here's a graph looking for a spot on Fox News...

April 12, 2020

For the Mashup Fans....