Ghost Dog
Ghost Dog's JournalSo, it comes down to a flash UK election.
Was this plan even meant to be the basis for a negotiation, or was it pure provocation a phoney offer designed for rejection, setting the Europeans up as the Brexit bad guys in an election? There are certainly Tory MPs who are stupid or uninterested enough in the detail to believe that the government offer was serious. There is also a pro-sanity faction inside Downing Street, led by Eddie Lister, Johnsons chief of staff from his London mayoralty years, that believes in complying with laws and maintaining relationships with continental allies. But that side of the operation competes with the revolutionary set around Dominic Cummings, who has imported the single-minded fanaticism of the Vote Leave referendum campaign to No 10. In a race to set the terms of debate, there is an advantage to the side that has no interest in diplomacy and no hesitation in setting fire to things, even when one of those things is Britains reputation as a rational actor on the international stage...
... Sanity might intrude far enough up Downing Street to allow grudging submission to the law that obliges the government to seek an article 50 extension in the absence of a deal. It isnt clear how that can be choreographed to spare Johnson the shame of breaking his do or die pledge to meet the 31 October Brexit deadline, but his electoral fortunes need not be ruined by the breach. He would present it as a Dunkirk moment for the forces of Brexit heroic retreat before a Churchillian finest hour standing alone, unbowed against the foreign aggressor. Johnson can count on most of Fleet Street to help narrate events in those terms. Newspapers that gleefully boosted Nigel Farage to torment David Cameron and Theresa May will turn that dial back down for a Tory leader who shows suitably Faragist zeal. The Brexit party is bound to get a boost from article 50 extension, but not perhaps on the scale that Johnsons enemies would like...
... The past three years have proved the impossibility of turning the fantasy of easy, heroic release from EU membership into a practical policy. There is no alchemy that satisfies leave voters without inflicting harm on the country and diminishing its standing in the world. But for their different reasons neither Johnson nor Corbyn wants to admit that. So theyll fight an election, not to solve Brexit, but to sustain the fiction that a solution lies just around the next bend down the same infernal road.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/08/boris-johnson-deal-reality-election-brexit
UK financial establishment losing fear of radical Labour government
... Earlier this month, Oliver Harvey, an analyst for Deutsche Bank in the City of London, told the Telegraph: We see the magnitude of economic damage caused by a no-deal Brexit as much higher than [that caused by] policies proposed in the last Labour manifesto. In the same article, Christian Schulz, an analyst for Citibank, noted approvingly that Labour has become more decisively pro-EU, while a fiscally profligate no-deal Conservative government had become less enticing.
Off the record, other senior people in the City tell me they find the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, who has been circulating among them busily in recent months, a serious and intriguing figure: a supposed Marxist who looks, and sometimes talks, a bit like a bank manager.
A similar thaw is under way in the more thoughtful parts of the business press. With western capitalism having a crisis of confidence, at the very least this week the Financial Times announced Capitalism: time for a reset Labours radical economic alternatives have begun to look more reasonable to some business journalists. The Economist, despite its longstanding support for the Thatcherite free-market reforms that McDonnell would like to reverse, has been covering the development of Labours new economic thinking with intense curiosity since 2017. This month, the more cautious, centrist FT has published a succession of long articles about Labours new establishment and its ambitions for Britain. While the pieces were still spiked with criticisms, the scale of the coverage has suggested a degree of respect and that corporate Britain needs to understand Corbynism, and be prepared to make some accommodations with it...
... Since Corbyn took over Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats have each had three leaders. Meanwhile Labours policies relentlessly dismissed as weird and naive by newspapers that saw no downsides to austerity and Brexit have in fact often carefully gone with the grain of public opinion: renationalise the railways, raise taxes on the rich, put more police on the streets, avoid fighting foreign wars that lead to terrorism... Corbyns Labour has helped crystallise what students of the great Italian leftwing thinker Antonio Gramsci would call a new political common sense: a widespread feeling that free-market capitalism has run its course, public spending needs to rise, and the way we manage society and the economy needs to change...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/21/bankers-corbyn-tories-no-deal-capitalism-radical-government
Ireland: Will UK smugglers make hay while agriculture in NI and the Republic
crashes? It is one of the oldest professions.
... Trade to and from the UK is a vital part of Irelands economy with 16bn (£14.3bn) worth of exports to the UK in 2018 including around 50% of its beef and almost half its cheddar cheese. The EU has already given Ireland permission to open the coffers to help businesses cushion themselves and Irish businesses are demanding £1bn to mitigate the Brexit shock.
Representatives of the French government were also at Dublin Castle to explain the special corridor they have set up for Irish freight using the UK as a landbridge to the continent. They have built a new smart-border customs system in Calais which will allow officials to distinguish between trucks carrying Irish and British cargo. Scans of documents will be taken while the truck is passing through the Eurotunnel or on the ferry allowing them to be waved through in Calais as an EU member state truck not requiring SPS checks...
... It doesnt matter what comes down the track in terms of paperwork, what we cant deal with is the collapse in sterling, says OLeary. Nobody is making money selling to the UK. We are just surviving.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/12/no-deal-will-be-a-total-disaster-irish-agri-food-sector-on-high-alert
The Guardian:
... The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold unready HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40%-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow, it warns. This situation could last for up to three months, and disruption might last significantly longer, it adds, with lorries facing waits of between 1.5 days and 2.5 days to cross the border. The reliance of medical supplies on cross-Channel routes make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays, the report says, with some medicines having such short shelf lives they cannot be stockpiled. A lack of veterinary medicines could increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it adds.
On food supplies, supplies of certain types of fresh food would be reduced, the document warns, as well as other items such as packaging. It says: In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups. Later, it adds: Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.
On law and order it warns: Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/operation-yellowhammer-fears-no-deal-brexit-chaos-forced-to-publish-secret-papers
Brexit: Operation Yellowhammer no-deal document published
Source: BBC
Riots on the streets, food price rises and reduced medical supplies are real risks of the UK leaving the EU without a deal, a government document has said.
Ministers have published details of their Yellowhammer contingency plan, after MPs voted to force its release.
Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49670123
PM Johnson: I will not ask for Brexit delay
Johnson appeared to have lost control of Britains withdrawal from the European Union with the approval of the law, which obliges him to seek a delay unless he can strike a new deal at an EU summit next month. EU leaders have repeatedly said they have not received specific proposals...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/pm-johnson-i-will-not-ask-for-brexit-delay-idUKKCN1VU0P3
France to insist on a 'two-year' extension to allow Brexit re-evaluation
I think that our president has been really clear. Even the last time the UK requested it, it is really the dead-end limit after the 31 October the game is over, Mr Bonnell said. Now if and this door was open before if were talking about a long delay like maybe a couple of years, to re-evaluate the whole Brexit situation in light of the truth because the bottom line is what people are realising is that they have been lied to.
He continued: What should have been harmless for the UK and simple to set up and we see after two years of heavy negotiation we still have no agreement, so there comes a time when you need to put a stick in the ground. ...
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/france-to-insist-on-a-two-year-extension-to-allow-brexit-re-evaluation/
(UK) Queen approves law seeking to block October 31 no-deal Brexit
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-bill/queen-elizabeth-approves-law-seeking-to-block-october-31-no-deal-brexit-idUKKCN1VU1L8
Reuters does not describe the circumstances, convocation of Privy Council or whatever, in which the rubber stamp was applied.
Our path to an ecological civilisation: Alternative money and markets
( Long article at The Conversation: A globalised solar-powered future is wholly unrealistic and our economy is the reason why )I would instead argue that the ultimate obstruction is not a question of human morality but of our common faith in what Marx called money fetishism. We collectively delegate responsibility for our future to a mindless human invention what Karl Polanyi called all-purpose money, the peculiar idea that anything can be exchanged for anything else. The aggregate logic of this relatively recent idea is precisely what is usually called capitalism. It defines the strategies of corporations, politicians, and citizens alike. All want their money assets to grow. The logic of the global money game obviously does not provide enough incentives to invest in renewables. It generates greed, obscene and rising inequalities, violence, and environmental degradation, including climate change. But mainstream economics appears to have more faith in setting this logic free than ever. Given the way the economy is now organised, it does not see an alternative to obeying the logic of the globalised market...
... So the first thing we should redesign are the economic ideas that brought fossil-fueled technology into existence and continue to perpetuate it. Capitalism ultimately refers to the artefact or idea of all-purpose money, which most of us take for granted as being something about which we do not have a choice. But we do, and this must be recognised. Since the 19th century, all-purpose money has obscured the unequal resource flows of colonialism by making them seem reciprocal: money has served as a veil that mystifies exploitation by representing it as fair exchange. Economists today reproduce this 19th-century mystification, using a vocabulary that has proven useless in challenging global problems of justice and sustainability. The policies designed to protect the environment and promote global justice have not curbed the insidious logic of all-purpose money which is to increase environmental degradation as well as economic inequalities.
In order to see that all-purpose money is indeed the fundamental problem, we need to see that there are alternative ways of designing money and markets. Like the rules in a board game, they are human constructions and can, in principle, be redesigned. In order to accomplish economic degrowth and curb the treadmill of capital accumulation, we must transform the systemic logic of money itself. National authorities might establish a complementary currency, alongside regular money, that is distributed as a universal basic income but that can only be used to buy goods and services that are produced within a given radius from the point of purchase. This is not local money in the sense of LETS or the Bristol Pound which in effect do nothing to impede the expansion of the global market but a genuine spanner in the wheel of globalisation. With local money you can buy goods produced on the other side of the planet, as long as you buy it in a local store. What I am suggesting is special money that can only be used to buy goods produced locally. This would help decrease demand for global transports a major source of greenhouse gas emissions while increasing local diversity and resilience and encouraging community integration. It would no longer make low wages and lax environmental legislation competitive advantages in world trade, as is currently the case...
https://theconversation.com/a-globalised-solar-powered-future-is-wholly-unrealistic-and-our-economy-is-the-reason-why-118927
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