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friendly_iconoclast

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Member since: Fri Sep 8, 2006, 12:47 PM
Number of posts: 15,333

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Gun control advocates are lying to us again. Color me unsurprised

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/14/more-guns-more-crime-new-research-debunks-a-central-thesis-of-the-gun-rights-movement/

More guns, more crime: New research debunks a central thesis of the gun rights movement


http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/november/donohue-guns-study-111414.html


Now, Donohue and his colleagues have shown that extending the data yet another decade (1999-2010) provides the most convincing evidence to date that right-to-carry laws are associated with an increase in violent crime.

"The totality of the evidence based on educated judgments about the best statistical models suggests that right-to-carry laws are associated with substantially higher rates" of aggravated assault, rape, robbery and murder, said Donohue.

The strongest evidence was for aggravated assault, with data suggesting that right-to-carry (RTC) laws increase this crime by an estimated 8 percent – and this may actually be understated, according to the researchers.

"Our analysis of the year-by-year impact of RTC laws also suggests that RTC laws increase aggravated assaults," they wrote.


The murder rate increased in the states with existing right-to-carry laws for the period 1999-2010 when the "confounding influence" of the crack cocaine epidemic is controlled for. The study found that homicides increased in eight states that adopted right-to-carry laws during 1999-2010.


Let's just see about that, shall we?

First off, the crime statistics are obtained from the FBI's "Crime In The United States"
reports, and rates are per 100,000 inhabitants:

1999

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1999/table5_state99.xls

2010

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl05.xls

M = Murder and non-negligent homicide
AA = Aggravated assault

The first number is the 1999 rate, the second the 2010 rate

The following states are the eight that passed shall-issue laws in the period 1999-2010
The disinterested reader will notice that there was only *one* increase
in aggravated assault rates and *one* increase in murder rates, in two different states.


Passed 1999-2010

Colorado

M 4.6 2.4
AA 219.2 212.4


Minnesota

M 2.8 1.8
AA 146.5 136.4

Missouri

M 6.6 7.0
AA 336.6 321.7

Kansas

M 6.0 3.5
AA 259.5 272.1

Michigan
M 7.0 5.7
AA 375.7 321.0

Nebraska

M 3.6 3.0
AA 325.9 183.6


New Mexico

M 9.8 6.9
AA 622.2 457.1

Wyoming
M 2.3 1.4
AA 186.0 151.9


I think this tells us all we need to know about John Donahue and those that
tout his 'findings'...








Posted by friendly_iconoclast | Fri Nov 21, 2014, 04:16 PM (67 replies)

More attempted turd-polishing from gun controllers

Also posted at GCRA, but reposted here for some non-"amen chorus" discussion:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120236/2014-midterms-boosted-gun-control-and-hurt-nra

Republicans Won the Midterms. The NRA Did Not.


For example, note what's buried amidst the happytalk glurge in this paragraph:


And it wasn’t just the governors. Remember the successful recall in September 2013 of two Colorado state senators who had voted for the comprehensive gun-law reforms in that state? That victory for gun-rights supporters was taken as yet further proof that the gun control movement was incapable of protecting its allies, and was doomed to failure. I argued at the time that this reading overlooked the flukish nature of the recall—a special vote two months before election day in which Coloradans would not be able to vote by mail, as many are accustomed to doing, just the sort of low-turnout contest that favored the highly motivated minority of gun-rights activists in the state. And look at what happened last week: even in a big Republican year, when Republicans won the majority of the Colorado state senate, the Democrats won back both of those recalled seats with candidates who favor sensible gun laws—including one candidate who used to be employed by Bloomberg's previous group, Mayors Against Illegal Guns. With the election back on conventional terms, with the moderately good turnout of a regular midterm election, the ardent gun-rights minority in those districts was swamped by the broader mass of voters.


"Yeah, we got...back to where we started in two districts and lost overall-but it's a VICTORY!"

Yeesh...



Posted by friendly_iconoclast | Wed Nov 12, 2014, 03:45 PM (17 replies)

The Democratic Party Has Become General Motors Circa 1999

As evidence, I offer...the Pontiac Aztek:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontiac_Aztek

In case you're wondering if I've totally gone off the beam-after seeing the recent election debacle, I remembered this interview last month in Road and Track with auto industry bigwig Bob Lutz

I found the parallels striking...

http://www.roadandtrack.com/voices/columnists/bob-lutz/bob-lutz-tells-the-inside-story-of-the-pontiac-aztek-debacle


How Bad Cars Happen: The Pontiac Aztek debacle

Bob Lutz on the dangers of totalitarian management.
By Bob Lutz October 10, 2014

The guy in charge of product development was Don Hackworth, an old-school guy from the tradition of shouts, browbeating, and by-God-I-want-it-done. He said, "Look. We've all made up our minds that the Aztek is gonna be a winner. It's gonna astound the world. I don't want any negative comments about this vehicle. None. Anybody who has bad opinions about it, I want them off the team." As if the public is gonna give a sh** about team spirit.


Blaming the (non)voters/buyers? Yep, there's some of that too...


Early on, the Aztek obviously failed the market research. But in those days, GM went ahead with quite a few vehicles that failed product clinics. The Aztek didn't just fail—it scored dead last. Rock bottom. Respondents said, "Can they possibly be serious with this thing? I wouldn't take it as a gift." And the GM machine was in such denial that it rejected the research and just said, "What do those a**holes know?"...

The danger with the totalitarian management style is that people won't speak up when there's a problem. They'll get their heads cut off or the messenger gets shot...


That last line sound familiar to anyone else?

One guy I informally interviewed about how the Aztek happened was one of the top guys on the project. And this guy, he looks at me and he says, "I'm proud of it." Proud of the Aztek? "Yup. That was the best program we ever did at GM. We made all our internal goals, we made the timing, and I'm really proud of the part I played in it." He had tears in his eyes. It was almost tragic. Everybody wanted to will this thing to succeed, and it didn't work. All the emotional commitment and pride in the program was that it achieved all its internal objectives. And it was probably one of the great defeats in his life, or in his career.


Process over results...





Posted by friendly_iconoclast | Fri Nov 7, 2014, 07:56 PM (6 replies)
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