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BlueMTexpat

BlueMTexpat's Journal
BlueMTexpat's Journal
April 4, 2016

And for all of the hype in that article about

the "newbies," the writer didn't bother to confirm whether those prospective Bernie voters were actually registered Democrats.

That matters in NY, with its closed primary.

April 3, 2016

Who will win the battle of Brooklyn?

This is a Good Read for both candidates, IMO. But rather than post it where it will no doubt get dumped on, I choose to post it here.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/04/02/new-york-showdown-between-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-will-personal/aUtjf879UES7uvB9oLtiZL/story.html

Battle lines are drawn through neighborhoods brimming with traditional party loyalists backing Clinton and younger Sanders supporters clamoring for revolutionary change.

The fact that both candidates decided to plant their offices here highlights how neatly Brooklyn works as a microcosm of the Democratic electorate and reveals the difficulty that the eventual nominee will have uniting the factions.

There’s little evidence that Sanders is making large inroads with the blacks, Hispanics, or business leaders who have flocked to various Brooklyn neighborhoods in the five decades since he left.

But equally, the young idealists who fill the edgier parts of this borough and are injecting new energy into the Democratic Party aren’t particularly eager to embrace Clinton, who doesn’t seem to them to be in vanguard of much of anything.
April 3, 2016

Hillary Clinton Receives A Standing Ovation At ‘Black Girls Rock’

http://www.vibe.com/2016/04/hillary-clinton-black-girls-rock/

Tracee Ellis Ross, Amandla Stenberg, Rihanna, and more attended the 2016 BET Black Girls Rock award show to celebrate all that black women offer to the music and entertainment industry. The attendees also enjoyed performances by Monica and Jazmine Sullivan. But one unexpected appearance came later in the night, with Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic frontrunner, and former Secretary of State was welcomed to the stage by a standing ovation. “The entire world knows what you know, and that is, black girls rock!,” Clinton said.
April 3, 2016

Hillary Clinton Makes Republicans Tremble By Taking Out Trump And Cruz In A Single Swoop

During an interview on Meet The Press, Hillary Clinton demonstrated why Republicans fear her by taking out Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in a single swoop.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/03/hillary-clinton-republicans-tremble-trump-cruz-single-swoop.html

The article describes her interview and then ends with this:

Here are two thoughts that should terrify Republicans. If the general election is Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump, it will be Clinton who holds the moral high ground. Republicans have spent years laying the groundwork for general election attacks on Clinton’s trustworthiness, but it all will go up in smoke if the Republican nominee is Donald Trump.

Secondly, Clinton was able to use Trump as a weapon to take down Ted Cruz. Republicans are portraying the choice between Trump and Cruz as a contrast, whereas Hillary Clinton is telling voters that they are two sides of the same coin. The Trump damage has already been done, so unless Republicans dump both Trump and Cruz at the convention, former Sec. of State Clinton is ready.

Trump and Cruz are so far to the right that Clinton is going to be able to appeal to the left, the center, and the center-right in the general election campaign. Clinton’s answer to Chuck Todd about her most recent ad sent a message to Republicans that it doesn’t matter if they nominate Trump or Cruz, they are already screwed for the fall.
April 3, 2016

No path for Sanders…but it’s a long one

This is taken from Sam Wang's post at PEC from Mar 26. I don't believe that it's already been posted on DU. But Sam provides more math to show what Bernie must win to win the delegates he claims he can. He believes that a Bernie win is highly unlikely and puts the probability of such at 5%. Those are very long odds. IMO, with the recent increase in negative campaigning which is turning a lot of people off, that probability may even be lower now.

The comments are also very interesting, as are Sam's comments in response.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/03/26/no-path-forward-for-sanders/#more-14773

To keep the calculation simple, let’s just focus on pledged delegates, which are driven entirely by voting. In other words, what is the probability that Sanders gets half of all pledged delegates? This is useful, since if such an event did happen, then superdelegates might potentially follow suit to give him an overall majority.

Sanders has won 44% of pledged delegates so far. How would he get to 50%-of-delegates-plus-1?
...
Luckily, it is an easy problem to figure out what fraction of the vote Sanders needs. The Democratic Party’s rules assign delegates proportionally to the popular vote. (In this respect, the Democrats’ rules are more truly democratic than either the Electoral College or the Republican Party, which are both dominated by winner-take-all contests. Indeed, if the Democratic Party’s delegates were assigned on a winner-take-all basis, tonight’s delegate count would be Clinton 2020, Sanders 734, a 2.7-to-1 margin.) So Sanders needs to win the popular vote 56%-44% in the remaining elections, i.e. he needs Sanders +12%.

Now let’s look at national opinion surveys. In the last 8 polls (spanning March 17-23), Clinton led by a median of 9.5 +/- 2.1%. Overall, Democratic polls have been pretty accurate. Therefore, assume that the upcoming 22 primaries and caucuses will have an average margin that is similar to national opinion.*

For national opinion to come into line with what Sanders needs, there would have to be a change from Clinton +9.5% to Sanders +12%. That’s a 22-point swing. To put that into perspective, that is about how much the Clinton-Sanders margin has moved over the last seven months, since the start of August. Going forward, opinion would have to start moving about three times faster. And for this to happen, Sanders would have to start to cut into Clinton’s support, which has stayed in the 50-55% range this whole season. Basically, her support would have to drop to 40%. That simply isn’t going to happen.
April 2, 2016

Former Governor Jim Doyle backing Hillary Clinton (AUDIO)

https://www.wrn.com/2016/03/former-governor-jim-doyle-backing-hillary-clinton-audio/

During a Clinton stop in Madison this week, Doyle said he made the decision to support the former of Secretary of State while watching the Republican and Democratic presidential debates last year. He said that while watching the candidates, he realized there “really was only one person on either stage who could take on the incredible job of being president of the United States…and that was Hillary Clinton.”

Doyle was a big Obama backer eight years ago, although he said he still felt at the time that Clinton would have been a fine president as well. “She ran up against a very very unique kind of once in a lifetime type of candidate,” he said, pointing out that Clinton learned lessons from that contest that will carry over in this election.
...
Wisconsin has consistently voted for the Democratic nominee since 1988, and Doyle said he sees no reason for that to change this fall, no matter who is nominated. “It’s hard for me to imagine how Wisconsin goes from voting overwhelmingly twice for Barack Obama to somehow voting for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz,” he said. “They shouldn’t take us for granted, but I have little doubt that Hillary Clinton would carry Wisconsin.”


Please note that the last para refers specifically to the GE. The WI Dem primary outcome is still an open question, although I believe that the outcome will be close either way.
April 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 5 Things You Didn’t Know About Her

Fun read, even though I already knew about some of these!

http://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/hillary-clinton-5-things-you-didnt-know-about-her.html/?a=viewall

When someone has spent the better part of two decades in the national spotlight, it’s pretty easy for even the most uninformed people to know something about Hillary Rodham Clinton. Whether it’s because of her stint as First Lady during Bill Clinton’s presidency, her time as Secretary of State under President Barack Obama, or as the current Democratic frontrunner to claim the Oval Office in her own right, Hillary Clinton has had her share of the limelight. We know what she likes to drink, how much she’s worth, and which recipes will likely make their way into the White House if she’s elected.

We know a lot about Hillary Clinton’s policies — she has a public track record, after all. But there’s plenty of other information about the candidate that’s not as widespread — or that we’ve forgotten about in the Benghazi email dump. Take a look to find out some of the other aspects that make up Clinton’s life.

April 2, 2016

No, the race between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton isn't close

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-delegates-nomination-20160331-story.html

How bad is it for Bernie Sanders? A new survey in Wisconsin released today by the highly respected Marquette Law poll gave the Vermont senator a solid lead, 49 percent, to 45 percent for Hillary Clinton — which is terrible news for Sanders if he hopes to capture the nomination. That's because he would need to win by a much larger margin in Wisconsin — Nate Silver estimates a 16-percentage-point landslide — to get on pace to finish with more pledged delegates than Clinton.

And that's not the worst of it. In New York, where Sanders would need to win by 4 percentage points, the latest poll from Quinnipiac as Clinton beating Sanders by 12 percentage points. The situation is even worse in Pennsylvania.
...
He's exceeded what he needed to do in caucus states. But he's underperformed in primary states. That leaves him about 100 delegates short of where he would need to be at this point, and about 250 pledged delegates behind Clinton overall.
...
Sanders may win Wisconsin on April 5, and if he does, expect a full-scale freak-out by some sections of the press. Many reporters don't like Clinton much, but what really would matter is that the media has an interest in keeping the illusion of a competitive primary in place. Unless the polls are wrong and Sanders wins three-quarters of Wisconsin's delegates, don't believe it. There's only one competitive nomination battle in 2016, and it's not on the Democratic side.
April 2, 2016

Stop. Rachel Maddow is Not "Basically Fox News," and Dozens of Good Democrats Aren't Corrupt Shills

Another one joins the "I've-had-it" brigade. I'm almost there myself.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/01/1508768/-Stop-Rachel-Maddow-is-Not-Basically-Fox-News-and-Dozens-of-Good-Democrats-Aren-t-Corrupt-Shills

Last night, in reading the comments of a story here at Daily Kos, I read a supporter of Senator Sanders say that Rachel Maddow and MSNBC were “basically Fox News.” Rachel’s crime had been asking Senator Senators “process questions”—totally relevant and reasonable inquiries into the campaign.

Rachel Maddow. Champion of various liberal causes, holder of the feet of conservatives to the fire, long-time Bernie Sanders sympathizer. Rachel Maddow.

The Bernie Sanders campaign asks me to believe something I refuse to believe about Rachel Maddow. And yes, I understand that Bernie Sanders himself didn’t malign Maddow and MSNBC. In fact, he signed off from his interview in his normally cordial way. But it’s the core of the message, the unspoken “truth” dancing around the movement: “All of them over there, they’re fundamentally corrupt and out to steal the election through trickery and manipulation.” And no, that message isn’t directed at Republicans. Increasingly, it’s directed at Democrats.
...
I reject the characterization that dozens, maybe hundreds of Democrats are fundamentally corrupt people. No. I’ve seen too much good from them.


This is a Good Read. And yes, I reject that characterization too.
April 1, 2016

Amy Schumer Officially Endorses Hillary Clinton & Uses The Perfect 'Bambi' Quote For The Occassion

This story is from a couple days ago, so please forgive if it has already been posted. I checked, but didn't see it. There are also some typos in the original.

http://www.bustle.com/articles/151099-amy-schumer-officially-endorses-hillary-clinton-uses-the-perfect-bambi-quote-for-the-occassion

More and more celebrities are coming forward with who they are supporting during the 2016 presidential race. On Wednesday, Amy Schumer officially endorsed Hillary Clinton on social media with quite the announcement photo of herself wearing a figure skater's costume in front a seated Clinton. FYI, the photo is a snapshot from when they both appeared on The Ellen DeGeneres Show in September 2015. And once you get past her attire (BTW, she totally rocks it), you should definitely absorb her caption, which reads, "#imwithher rememeber [sic] what thumper said everyone."

Who is Thumper? Well, I can only imagine Schumer is referring to Thumper the adorable rabbit from Bambi. Only true fans will remember what Thumper said. Not only is he famous for thumping his foot, but he also has a memorable quote from the 1942 animated film. After his mother says to him, "What did your father tell you this morning?" Thumper then says, "If you can't say something nice, don't say nothing at all." The Golden Globe-nominated actor recognizes not everyone will agree with her supporting Clinton or her opinions, but that doesn't mean she wants to hear from the haters.

It's really no surprise that Schumer is backing Clinton, because on more than one occasion she's discussed the possible future POTUS and has had nothing but positive things to say about the presidential candidate.


There are also some good excerpts and photos at the link.

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