April 25, 2020

This is the Kingmaker in North Korea if there is a succession

Choe Ryong-Hae, Vice Chairman, President



https://www.thenational.ae/world/asia/north-korea-appoints-choe-ryong-hae-as-president-1.848051

Kim Yo-jong derives most of her power from her brother Kim Jong-un. The other potential successor to Kim Jong-un is his uncle, Kim Pyong-il who is Kim Jong-il's brother. He returned from overseas after a lengthy diplomatic career as ambassador in Europe, where he was essentially in exile for decades. Kim Pyong-il is Kim Il-sung's son. Thae Yong Ho, did an analysis of Kim Pyong-il yesterday in which it was reported that he is under house arrest, since his return in November 2019, because he is a preferable contender for power among the current ruling elites, led by Vice Chairman Choe, who now in their sixties, went to the same schools he did and now serve in the top party positions. KIm Pyong-il always has been regarded as a potential threat to succession, but he has remained a modest public servant with a low political profile to survive. Thae Yong Ho met him overseas in a professional capacity three times according to his interview on Channel A News Top Ten, yesterday. Kim Pyong-il served as ambassador to Poland and Czech Republic in his later assignments. Thae, a North Korean defector from the DPRK embassy in London, was elected to the South Korean National Assembly April 25 from the upper crust Gangnam district is Seoul, as a United Future Party Candidate. (Thae Yong-ho changed his name just before the election for some reason, now it's Thae Ku-min)


(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 4.24) Kim Il Sung (left); Kim Pyong-il (center); Thae Ku-min aka Thae Yong-ho (right)

Thae's assessment is that there could be a power struggle or purge in the event of Kim's demise, while the old guard clings to the past and regards Kim Yo-jong as too young and inexperienced to rule. Thae prefers that Kim Yo-jong succeed Kim Jong-un. The program depicted Kim Yo-jong as isolated in the top echelons of power in North Korea. Even a nominal succession by her to power would be subject to resistance under the surface by the older and more experienced cadre of party elites who allegedly identify with Kim Pyong-il. The scenario presented is the classic maneuvering that takes place around the royal family before succession during the Chosun dynasty.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Pyong-il

April 23, 2020

South Korean DongA news reports Kim Jong-un observed in Wonsan, NK

Channel A News reported in an exclusive that Kim Jong Un has been observed walking around in the Wonsan area without assistance. They believe he's been there for at least four days between the 15 and 20 April.

Relying on two unidentified South Korean government and military related sources, The Channel A report indicated they got this information from an unidentified US administration source:

"
(Source- Channel A News 4.23, youtube upload)

Analysts speculated that he was there to avoid risk of covid 19 infection in Pyongyang. The image shown above appears to be from a file video. The related DongA newspaper exclusive report says that US analysts made this assessment based on electronic and imagery analysis.* DongA media owns Channel A news. According the Donga.com report, the US source said Kim Jong-un's health status was subject to further consideration by analysts.

*[단독] 美당국자 “김정은 원산서 걷는 모습 포착”
워싱턴=김정안 특파원 , 한상준 기자 , 황인찬 기자 , 도쿄=박형준 특파원입력 2020-04-24 03:00수정 2020-04-24 03:30
http://www.donga.com/news/article/all/20200424/100787903/1