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ancianita
ancianita's Journal
ancianita's Journal
August 21, 2019
From 1,700 miles away, smoke plunged Sao Paolo into night.
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Amazon Death 2019
From 1,700 miles away, smoke plunged Sao Paolo into night.
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August 20, 2019
Jay Inslee Is For Edwin Ngugi Wanji
August 20, 2019
Inslee Got 130,000! Thanks, DU!
Inslee might or might not make the polls, but at least he's got donor numbers, so thanks for all you did to help him out.
Man, I love this place and everyone in it.
August 20, 2019
Lawrence O'Donnell just interviewed her, and her look at leaners and voters is the analysis that the DNC needs to drive its ground game.
Salon's interview with Bitecofer offers the best path because she knows how we won the House better than our leadership does. They need to listen to her. (all bolding is mine)
from Bitecofer herself:
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
Here is her 2020 analysis.
Rachel Bitecofer -- DNC, Listen To Her
Bitecofer was the ONLY predictor that got the 2016 win number right.Lawrence O'Donnell just interviewed her, and her look at leaners and voters is the analysis that the DNC needs to drive its ground game.
Salon's interview with Bitecofer offers the best path because she knows how we won the House better than our leadership does. They need to listen to her. (all bolding is mine)
With a record like that, you’d think that Bitecofer's explanation of what happened would have drawn universal attention and become common sense — but you’d be sadly mistaken. She’s barely beginning to get the recognition she deserves, and more troubling for the country, the outdated assumptions her model dispensed with continue to cloud the thinking of pundits and Democratic Party leadership alike. (Follow her on Twitter here.)
This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trump’s destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back "Trump voters"
fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave.
This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trump’s destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back "Trump voters"
fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave.from Bitecofer herself:
The explanation, of course, is that it was this giant turnout of core constituencies, that either are Democrats or favor Democrats — they’re independents who favor Democrats — and they have a huge turnout explosion. So it's not the same pool of voters changing their minds and voting Democrat after voting Republican because of the issue of health care. It's a whole different pool of voters.
They might have many reasons that they cite, and probably this is not the reason they would cite. But what made them enraged and show up is Trump Inc., the negative partisanship. I don't know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.
They might have many reasons that they cite, and probably this is not the reason they would cite. But what made them enraged and show up is Trump Inc., the negative partisanship. I don't know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.
It has to be within a realm of possibility. To illustrate that, in 2018 when we look at the Senate map, Arizona was an R+5 state — that meant it had a partisan advantage for Republicans of about five points. Tennessee was an R+15 state, and of course, as I predicted, Arizona flipped to the Democrats but Tennessee didn't even come close, despite multiple millions of dollars spent by Democrats in that effort.
The second thing that's most significant and influential — and this is totally unique and new — is the percentage of college-educated residents residing in the state or in the district. This is what I said would be unique and new in the Trump era. This was why I was able to look at maps, at these races that in 2018 people saw as toss-ups, and say, "No, no, no, no. These are going to flip."
In this new era that we’re moving into, we have college-educated voters moving towards the Democrats, and white working-class voters moving away from them. That allowed me to look months and months ahead at polling and say, these are the races where Democrats are going to do really well.
The second thing that's most significant and influential — and this is totally unique and new — is the percentage of college-educated residents residing in the state or in the district. This is what I said would be unique and new in the Trump era. This was why I was able to look at maps, at these races that in 2018 people saw as toss-ups, and say, "No, no, no, no. These are going to flip."
In this new era that we’re moving into, we have college-educated voters moving towards the Democrats, and white working-class voters moving away from them. That allowed me to look months and months ahead at polling and say, these are the races where Democrats are going to do really well.
My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that's a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model's prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats. I'm uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can't win the other three Midwestern states. Then as you point out I have four tossup states: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Even if he wins all four of them, the Democrats have already won the election — and the idea that he would win all four is pretty unlikely.
The Democratic leadership — the way they’ve chosen to navigate the Trump impeachment stuff, and certainly the way they talk about their House victories and how to maintain their House majority, it tells me that they’re still living in a understanding of the data that is outdated. If you don't understand how you won, and what the concurrent political data environment is telling you, that is concerning. So I do see a lot of evidence that Democrats don't get this.
If one group of candidates took more liberal issue positions, why did they win over independents?" It seems counterfactual, and the reason is what mattered was turnout. O’Rourke and Abrams carried independents because turnout surged, with different independents showing up to vote, motivated by the targeting strategy deployed by those campaigns, which were run under my suggested model rather than the old playbook that used to work back in the '90s and '80s.
The Democratic leadership — the way they’ve chosen to navigate the Trump impeachment stuff, and certainly the way they talk about their House victories and how to maintain their House majority, it tells me that they’re still living in a understanding of the data that is outdated. If you don't understand how you won, and what the concurrent political data environment is telling you, that is concerning. So I do see a lot of evidence that Democrats don't get this.
If one group of candidates took more liberal issue positions, why did they win over independents?" It seems counterfactual, and the reason is what mattered was turnout. O’Rourke and Abrams carried independents because turnout surged, with different independents showing up to vote, motivated by the targeting strategy deployed by those campaigns, which were run under my suggested model rather than the old playbook that used to work back in the '90s and '80s.
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
Here is her 2020 analysis.
August 18, 2019
"As I raise my head to broadcast my objection
As your latest triumph draws the final straw
Who died and lifted you up to perfection?
And what silenced me is written into law.
I can't believe where circumstance has thrown me
And I turn my head away
If I look I'm not sure that I could face you.
Not again, not today, not today.
If hatred makes a play on me tomorrow
And forgiveness takes a back seat to revenge
There's a hurt down deep that has not been corrected
There's a voice in me that says you will not win.
And if I ignore the voice inside,
Raise a half glass to my home.
But it's there that I am most afraid,
And forgetting doesn't hold.
It doesn't hold.
Now I don't believe and I never did
That two wrongs make a right.
If the world were filled with the likes of you
Then I'm putting up a fight.
Putting up a fight.
Putting up a fight.
Make it right.
Make it right.
Now love cannot be called into question.
Forgiveness is the only hope I hold.
And love, love will be my strongest weapon.
I do believe that I am not alone.
For this fear will not destroy me.
And the tears that have been shed
It's knowing now where I am weakest
And the voice in my head.
In my head.
Then I raise my voice up higher
And I look you in the eye
And I offer love with one condition.
With conviction, tell me why.
Tell me why.
Tell me why.
Look me in the eye.
Tell me why."
R.E.M.'s "Final Straw" -- Forgetting Doesn't Hold
"I know it's a campaign. But this isn't about politics. It's about basic human decency. It's about right and wrong. And we simply cannot endure this or expose our children to this any longer. Not for another minute, let alone for four years...this has got to stop right now...."
"As I raise my head to broadcast my objection
As your latest triumph draws the final straw
Who died and lifted you up to perfection?
And what silenced me is written into law.
I can't believe where circumstance has thrown me
And I turn my head away
If I look I'm not sure that I could face you.
Not again, not today, not today.
If hatred makes a play on me tomorrow
And forgiveness takes a back seat to revenge
There's a hurt down deep that has not been corrected
There's a voice in me that says you will not win.
And if I ignore the voice inside,
Raise a half glass to my home.
But it's there that I am most afraid,
And forgetting doesn't hold.
It doesn't hold.
Now I don't believe and I never did
That two wrongs make a right.
If the world were filled with the likes of you
Then I'm putting up a fight.
Putting up a fight.
Putting up a fight.
Make it right.
Make it right.
Now love cannot be called into question.
Forgiveness is the only hope I hold.
And love, love will be my strongest weapon.
I do believe that I am not alone.
For this fear will not destroy me.
And the tears that have been shed
It's knowing now where I am weakest
And the voice in my head.
In my head.
Then I raise my voice up higher
And I look you in the eye
And I offer love with one condition.
With conviction, tell me why.
Tell me why.
Tell me why.
Look me in the eye.
Tell me why."
August 17, 2019
There were a few thousand antifa out.
PB were prevented from confronting antifa by police.
PB ended their event early. Police escorted PB out.
It looks, at this point, as if PB have failed.
Win one for antifa, Portland. (sigh of relief)
Unicorn Riot, activist film journalists, cover Proud Boys v Antifa in Portland
Watch how this plays out in media, how the domestic terrorist whisperer tweets about it.
Every weekend the country is besieged with ... I can't even list the ways.
Unicorn Riot below reports that PB organizers are trying to "protest antifa" as domestic terrorists.
This video shows several hundred antifa East Portlanders walking toward PB.
There were a few thousand antifa out.
PB were prevented from confronting antifa by police.
PB ended their event early. Police escorted PB out.
It looks, at this point, as if PB have failed.
Win one for antifa, Portland. (sigh of relief)
August 15, 2019
Inslee In Iowa
Trump bashing works. Progressive values work!
The more this man speaks, the more electable he looks.
August 13, 2019
I hope Rachel pursues this.
We need to keep an eye on this case.
Let's hope the asylum judges win, since this is a move to weaken our judiciary that falls within the power of the Executive.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/justice-department-challenges-immigration-judges-union?fbclid=IwAR0sw7HEsNHTdfc9cES5aCvUEPY8nHRIxKSTFmQzyDXx-X4gHt7qmCMM27U
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Labor_Relations_Authority
If the DOJ Can't Attack Asylum Seekers, Attack Their Judges. Same Outcome.
The Department of Justice is challenging the right of the country’s 440 immigration judges to be represented by a labor union in a move the judges said was aimed at silencing their criticism.
In recent months, the immigration judges’ union has spoken out against new performance quotas and rules for managing court dockets.
The National Association of Immigration Judges has also called for the immigration courts to become independent of the Department of Justice, where the judges are currently employees...
“It’s absurd that anyone would consider us managers,” Immigration Judge Ashley Tabaddor, the association’s president, said in a statement. “We don’t even have the authority to order pencils.”
She called the move an “effort to mute” the country’s immigration judges.
Immigration judges are tasked with deciding who can stay in the country legally and who should be deported. The judges decide thousands of cases each year and are currently overseeing courts backlogged with 900,000 cases.
In recent months, the immigration judges’ union has spoken out against new performance quotas and rules for managing court dockets.
The National Association of Immigration Judges has also called for the immigration courts to become independent of the Department of Justice, where the judges are currently employees...
“It’s absurd that anyone would consider us managers,” Immigration Judge Ashley Tabaddor, the association’s president, said in a statement. “We don’t even have the authority to order pencils.”
She called the move an “effort to mute” the country’s immigration judges.
Immigration judges are tasked with deciding who can stay in the country legally and who should be deported. The judges decide thousands of cases each year and are currently overseeing courts backlogged with 900,000 cases.
I hope Rachel pursues this.
We need to keep an eye on this case.
Let's hope the asylum judges win, since this is a move to weaken our judiciary that falls within the power of the Executive.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/justice-department-challenges-immigration-judges-union?fbclid=IwAR0sw7HEsNHTdfc9cES5aCvUEPY8nHRIxKSTFmQzyDXx-X4gHt7qmCMM27U
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Labor_Relations_Authority
August 13, 2019
https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-voting-machine-defcon-voting-village-hackers/?verso=true&fbclid=IwAR0fvsrxwJxloWW_vxdm4Jdf7GjafYRYA_6279WDNc6ljmay34uaCYn9Wsw
That there, my friends, is where the hacking community is -- right square in Democracy's corner.
So let's not fret. Let's trust that they're gonna help this messed up system right itself.
This particular prototype might not be ready in time for 2020, but tech folk are fanning out to watch swing states and the red state paperless ballot system.
DEF CON AND DARPA ARE ON IT FOR 2020 AND BEYOND.
For the last two years, hackers have come to the Voting Village at the DefCon security conference in Las Vegas to tear down voting machines and analyze them for vulnerabilities. But this year’s village features a fancy new target: a prototype of a so-called secure voting machine, created through a $10 million project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. You know it better as Darpa, the government's mad science wing.
DARPA wants you to know: Its endgame goes way beyond securing the vote. The agency hopes to use voting machines as a model system for developing a secure hardware platform—meaning that the group is designing all the chips that go into a computer from the ground up, and isn’t using proprietary components from companies like Intel or AMD.
“The goal of the program is to develop these tools to provide security against hardware vulnerabilities,” says Linton Salmon, the project’s program manager at Darpa. “Our goal is to protect against remote attacks.”
DARPA wants you to know: Its endgame goes way beyond securing the vote. The agency hopes to use voting machines as a model system for developing a secure hardware platform—meaning that the group is designing all the chips that go into a computer from the ground up, and isn’t using proprietary components from companies like Intel or AMD.
“The goal of the program is to develop these tools to provide security against hardware vulnerabilities,” says Linton Salmon, the project’s program manager at Darpa. “Our goal is to protect against remote attacks.”
https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-voting-machine-defcon-voting-village-hackers/?verso=true&fbclid=IwAR0fvsrxwJxloWW_vxdm4Jdf7GjafYRYA_6279WDNc6ljmay34uaCYn9Wsw
That there, my friends, is where the hacking community is -- right square in Democracy's corner.
So let's not fret. Let's trust that they're gonna help this messed up system right itself.
This particular prototype might not be ready in time for 2020, but tech folk are fanning out to watch swing states and the red state paperless ballot system.
Profile Information
Gender: Do not displayHometown: New England, The South, Midwest
Home country: USA
Current location: Sarasota
Member since: Sat Mar 5, 2011, 12:32 PM
Number of posts: 36,133