December 31, 2016

A majority of working class whites still voted Democratic for most (or even all) offices for decades

"We haven't had them in the Dem Party to any great extent since Nixon, when he used racist code to get their support."

No. Those were affluent, middle-to-upper-middle class suburban white voters who voted for Nixon. You know, those more "educated" and "tolerant" voters. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey won a significant majority of working class white voters outside the Deep South (where George Wallace, of course, got a lot of white support). Research the election results if you don't want to take my word for it. In 1972, Nixon obviously won in a massive landslide, and yes, he won a lot of working class white voters - but remember that Jimmy Carter won back a lot of those Southern working class whites who had defected to Wallace. And in both 1972 and especially 1976, the Republican presidential nominee did significantly better among wealthier voters (most of whom were/are white, of course). As is tradition.

And no, most working class white dudes did not vote for Reagan. Well, OK, a lot of them did in 1984 - in a 49-state, 59%-41% landslide. And once again, the wealthier whites did a lot better. The "Reagan Democrats" (a painfully overused and pretty much irrelevant term - most of those people are dead, and they either became loyal Republican voters or returned to the Democratic Party) tended to be more affluent suburban white voters. But again, take a look at the election results for 1984. Walter Mondale actually beat Reagan not just in his home state of Minnesota, but in many working-class white locales and counties in much of the Rust Belt - again, in an election in which much of the rest of the country, and wealthier voters in particular, voted for Reagan. You know, those same working-class white areas that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump this year by scandalously large margins.. Same is even more true for 1988 (take a look at the electoral map that year in Iowa, for example - a state which Trump won this year by several points.

And remember....most of these places sent Democrats to Congress up until the "Republican Revolution" of the 1990s (and many of them even after that - especially outside the South). Which coincidentally, happened in the wake of NAFTA and the rise of "Third Way" Democratic politics with Bill Clinton and co. deciding that the future of the Democratic Party lied in pandering to those same affluent, suburban middle class white voters on everything from crime and taxes to "fiscal conservatism" and corporate deregulation. And all of this, of course, was done at the expense of working class voters of ALL demographic backgrounds - not just white men. And yet, a significant number of working class white men outside the South continued to vote for Democrats at most levels of government - and yes, many at the presidential level as well. And even as the Democratic Party was starting to decrease in strength among this group, a lot of working class whites outside the South (including white men) still voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and yes, Barack Obama. Hell, a lot of them voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential primaries. And yet, as we are all now painfully aware, there's substantial overlap between these voters (well, the ones who are still alive) and Trump voters - especially in the states which proved to be decisive for Trump's Electoral College win. Which, as far as I know, is still how a candidate wins the Presidency of the United States.

All of this is a long way of saying: You're wrong.

PS: Red-baiting doesn't really do you any favors in a political argument. Especially since there aren't many Reds left to bait, even among Bernie voters (of whom I wasn't one, for the record).

December 25, 2016

Luzerne County, Pennsylvania vs. Loudoun County, VA

Luzerne County, PA

Median household income: $45,897

2008
Obama: 53.3%
McCain: 44.9%

2012
Obama: 51.5%
Romney: 47.2%

2016
Trump: 57.9%
Clinton: 38.6%

Clinton's performance in Luzerne was 19 percentage points less than Obama's was in 2012.

By contrast:

Loudoun County, VA

Median household income: $115,574

2008
Obama: 53.7%
McCain: 45.4%

2012
Obama: 51.5%
Romney: 47.1%

2016
Clinton: 55.1%
Trump: 38.2%

Clinton's performance in Loudoun was 3-4 points more than Obama's was in 2012.

Many of the wealthiest areas in the country moved toward the Democrats in this presidential election, while many of the poorest areas in the country moved toward the Republicans. However, many of those same wealthy areas that voted for Clinton still voted for Republicans down-ballot, while conversely, many of those same poor areas that voted for Trump voted for Democrats down-ballot.

The Democrats have always distinguished themselves - to one extent or another - as being the party of the poor and working classes against the Republicans, who are the party of the rich and well-connected. Something is very, very wrong with the picture that has emerged from the Clinton vs. Trump election results this year.

December 21, 2016

This isn't the first time white, right-wing evangelical Protestants have chosen power over values.

One of these men is a white evangelical Protestant from the South and a devout Christian. The other won the votes of white evangelical Protestants despite being a divorced washed-up Hollywood actor who rarely went to church and who preached a secular Gospel of Wealth and Avarice. Guess who belonged to which party.

December 19, 2016

Forgot to add: The power of unions - organized working class politics - to push wages/incomes up...

...and to make all workers both more likely to vote Democratic, and more likely to vote, period - especially working class white men in the private sector, whom have trended sharply Republican over the last few decades - cannot be overstated.

Organized labor is critical to both the ability and willingness of Democrats to staunchly support and successfully advance a political program that would make the lives of working people, and people other than the wealthy and well-connected in general, better and richer and more hopeful overall.

December 19, 2016

A strong majority of whites without Bachelor's degrees voted for Trump. "Working class?"

Percentage of those aged 25 and over in selected occupations without Bachelors' degrees:

Top executives: 31.4%
Advertising and promotions managers: 21.6%
Marketing and sales managers: 30.6%
Administrative services managers: 59.3%
Financial managers: 37.3%
Industrial production managers: 46.2%
Transportation, storage, and distribution managers: 71%
Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers: 76.9%
Construction managers: 65.9%
Property, real estate, and community association managers: 58.1%

(You get the idea.)

Source: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_111.htm

Total employment in management occupations, 2014: Over 9.1 million

Source: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_102.htm

Note that these numbers/percentages are for workers whom are currently employed. There are also a lot of retired managers (numbering about a few million, I suspect) who entered the workforce at least nearly a half-century ago, in an era in which management occupations didn't need a Bachelor's degree nearly as often as they do today. And those retirees are disproportionately white men. Retired white guys in 2016 seem like a very liberal group of voters overall, if you ask me!

Furthermore, workers - of any occupation - without Bachelor's degrees are disproportionately located outside of major metropolitan areas, in the South or the "heartland", etc. - you know, those bastions of liberal Democratic political strength in 2016. And regarding income, keep in mind that salaries for all occupations - including management ones - tend to be lower outside the major metros, in rural areas, the South, Appalachia, the rural Rust Belt (and most rural areas in general), "right-to-work" states...see what I mean?

And none of this is even getting into the self-employed, or the military, or local law enforcement, or workers in anti-environmental, anti-regulation extraction industries, or uncredentialed white evangelical/fundamentalist pastors in the South or Midwest or wherever, or religiously conservative white women (particularly older white women) whom are married to men who tend to have higher incomes (or are the sole breadwinners) and higher educational attainment than their wives...

Admittedly a lot of these demographics overlap with one another, but the broader point remains: When speaking of white voters without Bachelor's degrees who voted for Trump, the relationship to class is far from straightforward.

December 16, 2016

"How DARE you call us deplorable!"

Texas electors face threats for defecting: ‘Vote for Trump or we rape your wife and daughters’
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/texas-electors-face-threats-for-defecting-vote-for-trump-or-we-rape-your-wife-and-daughters/#.WFMVAYeoWsY.twitter

Delegates face death threats from Trump supporters
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/delegates-face-death-threats-from-trump-supporters-222302

Trump Supporters Threaten To Assassinate Hillary Clinton, Overthrow Government
http://gothamist.com/2016/10/17/trump_clinton_threats.php

Trump Supporters Are Now Sending Death Threats to Jewish Journalists
http://usuncut.com/politics/trump-supporters-now-sending-death-threats/

Trump Supporters Vandalize Openly Gay Candidate’s Home With Death Threat
http://www.advocate.com/election/2016/10/28/trump-supporters-vandalize-openly-gay-candidates-home-death-threat

Donald Trump supporters 'threaten children of Carrier union boss' after he exposed false claim by President-elect
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-supporters-threaten-union-boss-children-carrier-union-chad-jones-a7462566.html

‘You should die’: Trump supporters threaten Utah delegate, she says, at Republican National Convention
http://www.sltrib.com/home/4130621-155/you-should-die-trump-supporters-threaten

Trump supporters are threatening to kill me over this tweet
http://fusion.net/story/369176/trump-tweet-death-threats-white-people-work/

Trump supporters threaten to send actress Emmy Rossum to 'gas chambers'
http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Trump-supporters-threaten-to-send-actress-Emmy-Rossum-to-gas-chambers-472594

Trump Supporters Release Home Addresses Of GOP State Leaders, Issue Death Threats
http://freakoutnation.com/2016/04/trump-supporters-release-home-addresses-of-gop-state-leaders-issue-death-threats/

Donald Trump Supporters Heckle NDTV Reporter, Threaten To Knock Her Mic Down
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-supporters-heckle-media-ndtv-reporter-call-them-liars-1477596

Vile Trump supporters threaten the kids of Newsweek reporter who exposed his shady business dealings
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/vile-trump-supporters-threaten-the-kids-of-newsweek-reporter-who-exposed-his-shady-business-dealings/