An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minute snapshot of the 2020 Senate races. BTRTN models now suggest that the Democrats have a 62% chance of winning a majority in the Senate... up from 55% in the last report.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-odds-of-taking.html

Excerpts: "The primary season is nearly complete, with the pairings largely determined for the 2020 Senate races. Democrats are in good position to win the three net seats required to gain control of the Senate, assuming Joe Biden wins the presidency. They have excellent chances to flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, while the GOP seems likely, as of today, to take back Alabama. And the GOP is vulnerable in several other races, most notably Iowa, Montana and Georgia. At this juncture – as of today – our BTRTN models suggest the Democrats have a 62% chance of taking control of the Senate, an increase from the 55% chance we noted in our last Senate snapshot on May 9. We have changed ratings in five races, four of them moving more favorably for the Democrats...

"The Democrats now hold commanding leads in several of the flip target states, and the number of states 'in play' has expanded. The following chart gives our BTRTN breakdown as of now. The Dems have eight elections they will surely win, while the GOP has twelve. That gives the Dems 43 'solid' seats and the GOP 42, with 15 races that have at least some chance of being competitive. It is the fate of those 15 seats that will determine control of the Senate. We said the Dems need to flip a net of +3 seats (to get to 50) assuming Biden wins, and, as of now, we see them accomplishing that by flipping four and giving back one. Our models indicate that, at this point, Biden has an 82% chance of winning the presidency..."

Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html

Lin served notice that he had arrived in China right at the start of the exhibition season, when he dropped 40 points – more than his NBA career high of 38 – in his very first game. This was surely a point of pride, an announcement that, far from beaten, he was ready to reassert himself at center stage.

And while he did not hit that marker during the regular season, he started off the regular season with 25 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in an easy 103-81 Ducks’ win over the Tianjin Gold Lions. In classic, slashing Lin style, he went straight to the rim, and was rewarded with 12 chances at the free throw line, making 11. But the woes remained from the three-point line when he whiffed on all five attempts, and, befitting his return to “high usage” status, he also made 4 turnovers.

The Ducks won their first four games and six of their first seven, as Lin settled into a steady level of production, leading the team as he filled the box score. Game after game Lin delivered big, with slash lines speaking to both his production and his consistency: in the five games following his debut, he went for 24/8/6, 26/7/4, 27/7/6, 28/5/9 and 26/3/4... "

Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html

Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-state-of-race-political-one-not.html

"The coronavirus essentially has accomplished the impossible, shutting down the world as we know it. Our global community has shrunk to fit within our four walls; whole swaths of our lives have been eliminated, while routine tasks (such as acquiring food) have become outsized events, requiring meticulous planning. Massive entities such as United Airlines and Carnival Cruise Lines suddenly find no demand for their products, while others that cater to the shut-in life, like Instacart and Zoom, are soaring.

And what of the presidential race, that quadrennial spectacle? Yes, it is still underway, in near-subterranean fashion. Our purpose here is to give you an update, because it is pretty hard to tell what is going on if you don’t search carefully. Campaign coverage, if not non-existent, has been relegated to the final minutes of any news or commentary show at best, the middle pages of the newspaper, and "below the fold" of any website.

So let us provide an update covering five subjects: how the campaigns are being run; the delegate count; the primary schedule, such as it is right now; the head-to-head polls; and, finally, for sport, the state of the Democratic veepstakes. Plus, a brief section on Andrew Cuomo..."

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Let’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....
0