tgards79
tgards79's JournalThese guys absolutely nailed the Georgia runoff...
Right down to the tenth of a percetage point...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-midterms-our-prediction-for.html
They did amazingly well on the midterms, too.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-how-we-nailed-midterms-with-near.html
If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?
Some facts:
Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.
As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.
The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.
Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!
For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html
If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?
Some facts:
Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.
As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.
The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.
Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!
For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html
If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?
Some facts:
Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.
As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.
The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.
Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!
For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html
BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking
From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html
On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.
We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.
So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.
· Covid is going away. It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.
· Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with. Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you cant eliminate them). And you dont want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.
· If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again. This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.
BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking
From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html
On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.
We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.
So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.
· Covid is going away. It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.
· Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with. Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you cant eliminate them). And you dont want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.
· If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again. This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.
BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates
Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html
BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates
Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html
BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates
Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html
BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss
"This is an off off year election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.
There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of ticket splitting, that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Bidens brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.
As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Bidens margin of victory in the two states in last years election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Bidens well-documented troubles."
Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html
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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AMNumber of posts: 1,415