tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose
The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers
The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html
"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.
Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers
The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html
"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.
Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers
The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html
"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.
Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."
BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions
The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html
"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.
So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.
And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:
1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?
2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)
We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."
BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions
The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html
"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.
So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.
And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:
1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?
2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)
We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."
BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions
The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html
"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.
So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.
And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:
1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?
2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)
We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."
BTRTN: Trump in the Bunker
The political site BTRTN with their "Month in Review," covering the wacky month of December, 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-trump-in-bunker.html
"I once worked for a company that was in trouble. The soon-to-be-fired CEO and his management team were desperately trying to save their jobs. Whenever one member of the team was fired or quit, they didn’t hire a replacement or promote someone; instead, one of the remaining members of the motley crew simply absorbed another title. One poor executive ended up with the rather ungainly portfolio of human resources, public relations, strategic planning and, finally, the Far East operating unit. Ultimately, the entire business was run by only a few trusted lackeys; no one else wanted these jobs and, also to the point, no one else was trusted to hold them.
I thought of this when Mick Mulvaney, the Director of Office of Management and Budget, became Trump’s 'Acting' Chief of Staff. Mulvaney had already absorbed responsibility for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. But apparently he was the only one who wanted the job, and one of the few Trump trusted enough to offer the job. And so the Mulvaney portfolio grows and grows -- who knows, he might even end up as Secretary of Defense, too. Merriam-Webster defines 'bunker mentality' as “a state of mind especially among members of a group that is characterized by chauvinistic defensiveness and self-righteous intolerance of criticism.” That sounds about right, and the Mulvaney Empire is clear evidence that Donald Trump has taken up full-time residence in that bunker..."
BTRTN: Trump in the Bunker
The political site BTRTN with their "Month in Review," covering the wacky month of December, 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-trump-in-bunker.html
"I once worked for a company that was in trouble. The soon-to-be-fired CEO and his management team were desperately trying to save their jobs. Whenever one member of the team was fired or quit, they didn’t hire a replacement or promote someone; instead, one of the remaining members of the motley crew simply absorbed another title. One poor executive ended up with the rather ungainly portfolio of human resources, public relations, strategic planning and, finally, the Far East operating unit. Ultimately, the entire business was run by only a few trusted lackeys; no one else wanted these jobs and, also to the point, no one else was trusted to hold them.
I thought of this when Mick Mulvaney, the Director of Office of Management and Budget, became Trump’s 'Acting' Chief of Staff. Mulvaney had already absorbed responsibility for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. But apparently he was the only one who wanted the job, and one of the few Trump trusted enough to offer the job. And so the Mulvaney portfolio grows and grows -- who knows, he might even end up as Secretary of Defense, too. Merriam-Webster defines 'bunker mentality' as “a state of mind especially among members of a group that is characterized by chauvinistic defensiveness and self-righteous intolerance of criticism.” That sounds about right, and the Mulvaney Empire is clear evidence that Donald Trump has taken up full-time residence in that bunker..."
BTRTN: When Donald Trump Became "Individual 1"
The BTRTN November, 2018 Month in Review, a month chock full of crises, but ultimately may be known to history for only one thing:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/12/btrtn-when-donald-trump-became.html
"November was an astonishingly full month, crammed with comings and goings, inflection points and crises galore, from the midterms to the Mideast, the environment, gun violence, immigration, freedom of the press, the domestic and global economy and even threats of war.
Image result for individual 1The month began with an underqualified sycophant, Matthew Whitaker, beginning his tenure as Attorney General, and ended with the death of perhaps our most qualified president, and one of the most dignified, George H. W. Bush. The contrast between that gentleman and statesman, our 41st president, and the man who installed Whitaker as AG, our 45th, could not be sharper.
And yet through all of this, history may record the month simply as the time when President Trump moved firmly into the crosshairs of the Mueller investigation and became, ominously, “Individual 1.” We’ll see if a smoking gun emerges, but certainly enough smoke is billowing at this point to ensure a fire is raging. That fire is epitomized by a simple query: if there was no crime to begin with, why have so many Trump officials lied about their ties to Russia?"
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