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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,338

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

In Sanders Fields: Will Bernie Work Hard to Unite the Dems?

Rachel Maddow may think so...we're not so sure:

Grand Old Patty Hearst Syndrome

On the tortured acceptance of Donald Trump by the mainstream GOP...

Simple question for Sanders' Supporters...

Who would you rather have, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, to...

Select Supreme Court justices
Defend woman's health rights
Lead gun control battle
Lead climate change battle
On all foreign policy matters
Extend LBGT rights
Lead immigration reform

This is not a rhetorical question. I'm really curious.

Polling in May

Excerpt below is from this article on five reasons why Bernie should stay in the race, and five counterarguments. One of them is below. Here is the rest of the article:

2) Sanders does better than Clinton in head-to-head polling versus Trump and thus superdelegates should be persuaded by that “fact” to flip their support to him

It is true that in May polls, Clinton leads Trump by +3 and Sanders leads Trump by +11. But there are two good reasons to heavily caveat these results, if not completely dismiss them.

It is laughably early to rely on polls in May to predict outcomes in November. Here are the results of May polling in the last 9 presidential elections. Yes, they were wrong in 7 out of the 9, and the margins were usually wildly different. They were never correct in a year when neither candidate was an incumbent, unless you count Bush in 2000 (he lost the popular vote but won in the Supreme Court Electoral College). To go to a superdelegate and ask him or her to use May polling as a fact-base for flipping the verdict of an entire primary season seems ludicrous.

1980: Carter 40, Reagan 32, Anderson 21 (actual outcome: 41/51/7)
1984: Reagan 53, Mondale 43 (59/41)
1988: Dukakis 52, Bush 38 (46/53)
1992: Bush 35, Perot 35, Clinton 25 (37/19/43)
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 35, Perot 15 (49/41/8)
2000: Bush 46, Gore 41 (48/48)
2004: Kerry 47, Bush 46 (48/51)
2008: McCain 47, Obama 44 (46/53)
2012: Romney 46, Obama 43 (47/51)

The second point is that GOP and its media surrogates have spent 25 years slamming and sliming Hillary Clinton, in the most wildly inflated terms. They have not spent a single nanosecond doing the same to Bernie Sanders. You can be sure that if Sanders made it to a general election, they would savage his known vulnerabilities (his self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialism,” the huge cost of his many pet programs, his 30+ years in Washington, DC, his age) and whatever else they might dig up. His poll numbers inevitably would decline – just ask John Kerry. Whatever you may think of Hillary Clinton, there is nothing new here for Donald Trump, especially if the FBI fails to indict her. He may pound her, but he can only use information America has absorbed for 25 years. And he is unlikely to touch Bernie’s most compelling attacks on her – her ties to Wall Street. So the poll numbers reflect all known information on Hillary Clinton, while Bernie’s more or less reflect pristine treatment.

Should Bernie Stay or Should He Go?

Five reasons why Bernie should stay in the race to the convention -- and five responses:

The System is Rigged in Favor of Bernie

In the aftermath of the near-riot at the Nevada Democratic Convention, we turn our analytic attention to that very question.

Is The System Really Rigged Against Bernie?

In the aftermath of the near-riot at the Nevada Democratic Convention, we turn our analytic attention to that very question.

How Refreshing, A Dem Primary! BTRTN: Split Decision in KY/OR

OK, they don't matter anymore, but at least the Oregon and Kentucky primaries will provide a welcome break in the #DonaldTrump24/7 "news" cycle. For the record, I see a split decision tomorrow...

Sanders Whips Farrell, Judd and Rest of Field in West Virginia, Cuts Delegate Gap By 7

I wish there had been a debate...

BTRTN Addresses Bernie's Fans' Complaints of Pro-Hillary Bias...By Looking at the Numbers

Yes, there are primaries still going on, and since Bernie has not thrown in the towel, some Democrats are still watching, and we have a prediction for them. Speaking of Bernie fans, some of them occasionally accuse BTRTN of having a Hillary bias. Not so! We love the numbers too much to allow any bias to get between us and a good prediction. But, just to be sure, we turn the numbers on ourselves.
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