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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

Why Mitch McConnell Wants Roy Moore to Step Down in Alabama

It's not so much that he's great on ethics and morality...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/why-mitch-mcconnell-wants-roy-moore-to.html

"Trump, with his simplistic view of the world, thinks that an unrepentant Moore candidacy is the best path toward maintaining 52 GOP votes in the Senate. Trump has learned the hard way that every vote matters, that the Democrats will vote as a bloc against him, and he cannot count on the votes of a number of GOP Senators who have little to no loyalty to him as it is: John McCain, Jeff Flake, Susan Collins, Bob Corker, Linda Murkowski and, depending on the issue, quite a few others (Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Bob Portman and on and on). A victory in Alabama by Democrat Doug Jones means that at the starting line for any legislation, the GOP can afford only one defector, not the current two. Trump wants some legislative victories and his vision extends as far as the next few days, weeks or maybe months. He thinks a Moore win would help him with some 2018 wins.

McConnell, on the other hand, is playing the “long game” and has a more sophisticated view. Sure he’s concerned about the GOP brand in the Senate, and about winning close votes in 2018, but he has a far more prosaic and practical concern: losing the Senate in 2018.
How is that possible? Doesn’t the GOP have an impregnable map? They have the ingoing 52/48 advantage; 10 potentially vulnerable Democratic seats up for grabs in states that Trump won in 2016; and only eight GOP Senators up for reelection, six of whom won in 2012 (when they last ran) by +17 points or more in their solid red states. What could be a more solid bet than the GOP maintaining control? But a clear-eyed McConnell sees it this way..."

Why Mitch McConnell Wants Roy Moore to Step Down in Alabama

It's not so much that he's great on ethics and morality...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/why-mitch-mcconnell-wants-roy-moore-to.html

Why Mitch McConnell Wants Roy Moore to Step Down in Alabama

It's not so much that he's great on ethics and morality...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/why-mitch-mcconnell-wants-roy-moore-to.html

BTRTN SaturData Review: Trump's Moore Embrace Not Hurting Him - Yet

BTRTN takes a look at the last week in politics, by the numbers.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-trumps-moore.html

"...The most notable event was Trump’s all-but-endorsement of Roy Moore, a rather shocking split from the entire national GOP establishment, which has by and large pulled all endorsements and support, and called for Moore to step down. Trump, on the other hand, concluded the GOP Senate margin was too slim to abandon the accused child abuser. This continued Trump’s embrace of an issue (he attacked Al Franken) that one would think he should avoid, given his own sordid groping history. He even hinted that he might campaign for Moore as Election Day approaches (December 12).

But if Trump detractors were hoping his embrace of Moore would be the catalyst for a long-awaited material drop in his approval rating, they were disappointed yet again. His approval rating was basically unchanged (actually ticking up a point), and staggered along as usual at the abysmal 40% level, with a “net negative” of -16 percentage points (the difference between his approval and disapproval ratings). We will see if that continues if Trump actually embraces Moore on the campaign trail..."

BTRTN SaturData Review: Trump's Moore Embrace Not Hurting Him - Yet

BTRTN takes a look at the last week in politics, by the numbers.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-trumps-moore.html

BTRTN SaturData Review: Trump's Moore Embrace Not Hurting Him - Yet

BTRTN takes a look at the last week in politics, by the numbers.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-trumps-moore.html

BTRTN SaturData Review: Roy Moore's Crimson Slide

The data-driven BTRTN looks at the last week in numbers, with a focus on Trump indicators and the Alabama Senate race.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-roy-moores.html

BTRTN SaturData Review: Roy Moore's Crimson Slide

The data-driven BTRTN looks at the last week in numbers, with a focus on Trump indicators and the Alabama Senate race.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-roy-moores.html

"...The economic news is a plus for Trump, but the rest of the scoreboard is a disaster for the GOP with the mid-terms a year away. For the GOP to hold onto the House, they will have to overcome anemic ratings, and hope the economy hangs on, while passing a tax 'reform' bill that offers no long-term tax relief for the middle class, strips 13 million Americans of their health insurance, fills the coffers of corporate America, adds $1.5 trillion to the deficit, and is not backed by an economic forecast – by anyone -- that says that deficit bite will be offset through incremental GDP growth. Whew!

So the standard tracking information was largely unchanged. But there was one big piece of data that did change this week, and it is Roy Moore’s standing in Alabama. Never a terribly strong candidate, Moore’s prospects for victory in the special election for the Senate seat vacated last January by, yes, Jeff Sessions, plummeted in the wake of scandal. There are now nine women who have come forward with various charges against Moore, ranging from extreme creepiness to outright sexual assault on a minor, all occurring when they were teenagers and he was a 30+ year old serial-teen-dater..."

BTRTN SaturData Review: Roy Moore's Crimson Slide

The data-driven BTRTN looks at the last week in numbers, with a focus on Trump indicators and the Alabama Senate race.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-saturdata-review-roy-moores.html

BTRTN Election Day Predictions: New Jersey and Virginia Looking Blue

The gang at BTRTN with their Election Day predictions:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/11/btrtn-election-day-predictions-new.html

"This being an off-off year, there are no Senate or House elections on Election Day and, most unfortunately, the Presidential race is another three years off. In terms of nationally prominent elections, there are two gubernatorial races, one in New Jersey, to replace the departing Republican Chris Christie, a man who has seen the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in his tenure, and the other in Virginia, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe is stepping down, like Christie, because term limits precludes him from running again.

The Democrats will be extremely disappointed if they do not sweep both races, as these are both blue states, and thus flip New Jersey and defend Virginia. The Virginia race is the closer of the two and may be shaping up as the real referendum on Trump. New Jersey seems to be shaping up more as a referendum on the wildly unpopular Christie..."
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