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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible

Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html

"There is a narrative you have been hearing like a rising drumbeat over the past week, and it can be summarized from the opening sentence of an Associated Press article yesterday:

“In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.”

This theme is likely afoot for several reasons: 1) it’s an excellent media storyline, injecting some excitement by casting doubt on the likely outcome; 2) it offers an opportunity for journalists (and pollsters and poll aggregators) to cover their behinds so as not to commit another fiasco as in 2016; and 3) it is a motivator (for partisan Dems) to ensure that there is no complacency, that that massive Dem enthusiasm does not dwindle down the stretch.

The facts themselves do not really support such a dire view of the state of play..."

BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible

Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html

BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible

Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html

BTRTN: Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View from Maine

A fascinating and inspiring view of local politics from the campaign volunteer perspective, "Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View From Maine"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-finding-refuge-in-local-politics.html

"This year, Maine has a couple of contentious elections. Former marine and state house representative Jared Golden is running to unseat our Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin. Although the polls show that race as a toss-up and Golden is hoping to ride the blue wave, no incumbent has ever been defeated in northern Maine in over a hundred years. Attorney General Janet Mills and businessman Shawn Moody are in another toss-up race to replace the oft maligned governor Paul LePage, who is getting termed out this year. The local Democrats see this year as an opportunity to win both houses of Congress and the governor’s mansion, giving them an excellent chance to deliver on their agenda.

Earlier this year I began volunteering for the reelection campaign of Democratic state senator Jim Dill, who also serves as the local tick expert at the University of Maine..."

BTRTN: Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View from Maine

A fascinating and inspiring view of local politics from the campaign volunteer perspective, "Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View From Maine"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-finding-refuge-in-local-politics.html

BTRTN: Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View from Maine

A fascinating and inspiring view of local politics from the campaign volunteer perspective, "Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View From Maine"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-finding-refuge-in-local-politics.html

BTRTN Gubernatorial Election Snapshot: Good News for the Dems?

A state-by-state, detailed review of the 36 races for governor to be decided on Election Day:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-gubernatorial-election-snapshot.html


"...and what a fulsome gubernatorial election cycle this is, with fully 36 of our 50 governorships on the line in November. The GOP dominates state houses now, with 33 governors, while the Democrats have only 16, with one Independent (in Alaska). So, the Dems have opportunities they don’t have with the Senate playing field – of the 36 seats on the ballot, 26 of them are held by the GOP.

As of this snapshot – not a prediction, but if the elections were held today – the Democrats are in line to flip a net of..."

BTRTN Gubernatorial Election Snapshot: Good News for the Dems?

A state-by-state, detailed review of the 36 races for governor to be decided on Election Day:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-gubernatorial-election-snapshot.html

BTRTN Gubernatorial Election Snapshot: Good News for the Dems?

A state-by-state, detailed review of the 36 races for governor to be decided on Election Day:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-gubernatorial-election-snapshot.html
Tgards79

BTRTN Latest Midterms Snapshot: Freight Trains Running in Different Directions

A split decision seems more likely than ever:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-latest-midterms-snapshot-freight.html


"...the House is a national game, with every seat on the ballot, and the national mood is ugly and, on balance, anti-Trump. Suburban women across the country are fed up, energized, and out for blood, and woe to the GOP incumbents in their paths – that is, those that chose to stay and fight. (So many others ran for the hills and retired from their contested seats rather than face the music.) The generic ballot lead for the Democrats is now at a whopping +9, a chasm of a gap, and that lead has held (even increased) in the face of the “Kavanaugh Factor” that supposedly has energized the GOP base. It surely has, but it also galvanized the long-energized, better organized and better funded Dems.

The Senate, on the other hand, is a local fight, largely being fought on Democratic terrain. And the Democrats will win most of these elections..."
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