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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta

A good read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html

BTRTN: Three September Surprises...and an October Stunner

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-three-september-surprises-and.html

"We have just witnessed two weeks that defy imagination. And yet, none of the epic events – not the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, nor the outing of Donald Trump’s taxes, nor Trump’s stunning savagery in his opening debate with Joe Biden, nor Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 – were, at the end of the day, terribly surprising. One could reasonably argue that they were all inevitable – it is simply the confluence of their occurrence, and all so close to Election Day, that leaves us reeling.

Not only reeling, but, more than ever, without a clue as to where it all will land. As predictable as those events might have been, the outcomes that could arise from them range from A to Z. Most notably: will Trump recover, physically? Can he recover, politically, from the blows delivered by his taxes, his widely-panned debate performance, and the return of COVID as a campaign issue? And will Amy Coney Barrett actually ever be confirmed as a lasting Trump legacy on the Supreme Court?
"

BTRTN: Three September Surprises...and an October Stunner

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-three-september-surprises-and.html

"We have just witnessed two weeks that defy imagination. And yet, none of the epic events – not the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, nor the outing of Donald Trump’s taxes, nor Trump’s stunning savagery in his opening debate with Joe Biden, nor Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 – were, at the end of the day, terribly surprising. One could reasonably argue that they were all inevitable – it is simply the confluence of their occurrence, and all so close to Election Day, that leaves us reeling.

Not only reeling, but, more than ever, without a clue as to where it all will land. As predictable as those events might have been, the outcomes that could arise from them range from A to Z. Most notably: will Trump recover, physically? Can he recover, politically, from the blows delivered by his taxes, his widely-panned debate performance, and the return of COVID as a campaign issue? And will Amy Coney Barrett actually ever be confirmed as a lasting Trump legacy on the Supreme Court?
"

BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems Likely to Rock the House in November

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems Likely to Rock the House in November

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems Likely to Rock the House in November

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."

BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems Likely to Rock the House in November

An in-depth analytic look at the House elections in November by BTRTN, the election forecasters:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-likely-to-rock.html

"...the headline: at this juncture we see almost no chance that the Democrats will lose control of the House. Rather, if current race dynamics hold, they will likely pick up a significant number of seats and extend their majority.

The BTRTN track record in predicting House elections has been exceptionally strong. Here are the predictions and outcomes in the last five elections..."
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