December 4, 2016

Some possible early danger signs for a Trump presidency

Is president Trump going to be (merely) a clueless but obnoxious and racially tone-deaf hard-core conservative?

Or is he gearing up for something far more sinister?

Some possible signs to watch out for, IMO:

-- mysterious deaths of critical comedians and reporters

-- major new sites stop publishing stories critical of the administration

-- websites getting shutdown

-- news stories put out directly by the government

-- white-supremacist and neo-Nazi groups becoming more vocal in the media

-- the military being mobilized domestically, perhaps for rounding up immigrants

-- a major terrorist attack on US soil

-- a major foreign war being pushed on minimal provocation

-- a nuclear bomb going off somewhere in the world


Just a few not so pleasant thoughts...

December 4, 2016

Rural voters live in their own bubble too

http://www.salon.com/2016/12/03/sorry-to-burst-your-bubble-but-dont-all-americans-live-in-their-own-little-worlds

This piece makes a lot of good points:

The surreal election of Donald Trump to the presidency has given loud amplification to several boring bromides. There is an endless loop of maudlin reflections on the plight of the “white working class.” “Elites” and “elitism” have become central to the cacophony, along with the spooky but largely meaningless word “establishment.” Particularly irritating is the new version of the old admonition against liberals to “get out of the bubble.”

It is likely true that many liberals live insulated lives of cultural and intellectual isolation, but it is equally true of conservatives. The construction of a bubble around an individuated life is part of human nature, but with typical idiocy and hypocrisy, American culture has issued a one-way, exclusive indictment against isolation for liberals and no one else. To condemn people of progressive politics for insular thinking and living is the equivalent to prosecuting a petty shoplifter for theft, while ignoring the bank robbery spree of a modern-day John Dillinger. Liberals, by any criteria, are the mildest offenders.

When was the last time any mainstream commentator suggested that a rural, white Christian conservative Sunday School teacher escape her bubble and befriend a group of black lesbians? Can anyone recall ridicule of a right-wing, suburban housepainter who believes God watches his every brushstroke for not attending a public lecture from an award-winning evolutionary biologist?

The absence of criticism against the conservative bubble, which is undeniably smaller and tighter that the liberal bubble, demonstrates that American culture has condescended to the conservative with, to resurrect an old George W. Bush chestnut, “the soft bigotry of low expectations.”

Also-- there's a reason most people want to live around cities-- rural areas tend to be freaking boring, dreary places of monoculture. It's not elite to want to live in a more interesting place, with more social activity.

December 3, 2016

3 days, 3 international incidents

1) the Pakistan call, pissing off India

2) the Taiwan call pissing off China

3) now the Philippines call, praising the murderous monster there http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/03/politics/trump-duterte-phone-call/index.html

I really feel bad for the career diplomats at the State department.

Let's just hope these can be smoothed over and won't cause worse problems. They still will cost us.

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/805065476300800000

Countries where trump already screwed up diplomatically is 2 long to tweet. Why won't he get briefed by State like all prez-elects be4 him?

December 3, 2016

Necktie-Gate-- hilarious read

http://www.salon.com/2016/12/02/half-windsor-all-fiasco-trumps-necktie-gate-may-undermine-his-statesmanlike-gravitas/

It’s a distressing time for many of us as we look around and see the ascendant Republican Party readying an assault on our already beleaguered social safety net and pluralistic traditions. With so much to worry about, it feels almost cruel to throw yet another crisis onto the pile. Unfortunately, circumstances demand it.

As you might have already seen, Donald Trump was recently photographed emerging from his airplane as a gust of wind caught his necktie and revealed a dirty secret. The president-elect, who is a man of substantial means, holds his necktie together with Scotch tape — a discombobulating mishmash of Armani aesthetics and hobo fashion sense.

As upsetting as this is, I really can’t make head or tail of it. Clearly Trump is concerned about how terribly embarrassing it would be to have the two ends of his tie flopping about willy-nilly. And yet the solution he has landed upon — or someone else in his inner circle has — is to make a third-grade arts-and-crafts project out of his wardrobe.

What the hell is going on here?

Let’s start with the reason why he’s even in the situation of having to tape down his own necktie. Trump likes to wear red “power ties” because he is the living stereotype of a 1980s New York power broker. And he likes to wear his ties long so that they extend well past his belt buckle and form a crimson arrow that points at his crotch. There’s a trade-off for transforming your necktie into a gaudy billboard for your penis: you can’t do what normal people do and just tuck the narrow end into the conveniently placed loop on the back the broad end.

December 3, 2016

Breaking down the 3 million illegal vote claim

As well all know, Trump made this claim that 3 million people voted illegally in the presidential election (and of course they all voted Democrat, right?).

A blogger at RedState tries to defend his claim:
"Miller referred to the 2014 Washington Post study that indicated more than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 elections indicated they were registered to vote, and the Pew Research study that said approximately 24 million, or one out of every eight, voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate. Miller went on to say that the same Pew Research study notes that 2.5 million people have registrations in more than one state. These are studies and examples of where there have been issues of both voter fraud and illegal immigrants voting."

http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2016/11/28/team-trump-offers-evidence-for-millions-voting-illegally/

So there's really 3 claims here:

1) illegal immigrants voting when they shouldn't
2) inaccurate and expired voter registrations
3) registrations in more than one state

First off, importantly, there is no hard evidence or "proof" anywhere that there are large numbers of illegal votes being cast.

Second -- #2 & #3 are basically red herrings. There are always mistakes in voter registrations and our voting systems just do not efficiently weed out voters that have died or moved. There's simply no evidence that voter fraud is taking place in this way-- people using dead people to vote when they shouldn't and so forth. Particularly the cross state one is silly. It's hard enough to vote in one state, much less travel to a second state to vote? And a lot of duplicates are probably common names, as Greg Palast has shown. Unfortunately, these people are being removed wrongfully in the "crosscheck" program, which is true voter suppression.

The #1 is more serious, but it's really only supported by one controversial Wash Post article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/24/could-non-citizens-decide-the-november-election/?utm_term=.3632aca2e678

This article was based on one statistical study that said that non-citizens could vote. It's also been refuted by other studies.

Personally, I think it's hard to see undocumented immigrant or non-citizens voting in truly large numbers. Although ironically if they were, voter ID laws would not stop them since they have ID. But in general, undocumented immigrants don't want to risk getting in trouble, so what's the benefit for voting?

Now I suspect there are some "dreamers" who have grown up here but are not officially citizens that cast votes. But there's no way this is 3 million people, I doubt this is even one million people.

So basically the 3 million number is completely fabricated, and the bottom line is that Trump's claim has no factual basis, and obviously it was highly irresponsible for him as the winner and president elect to spread that sort of idea.

December 2, 2016

Is there a good resource for explaining the trans bathroom usage issue to people?

I'm having a facebook discussion with someone who is super upset about how Obama forced this on us, and how upsetting it would be for a trans person to use a bathroom when his kid is there. I've tried to talk him through the topic but he just doesn't seem to get it. Is there a good explainer article or video out there that people here know of?
Thanks!

December 2, 2016

Does Trump have any murderous impulses?

We know he's a lying sociopath, and most of us would *survive* another 4 years of hard-right rule.

The thing that really worries me is when Trump gets that immense power of the presidency, what kind of savage instincts might be unleashed. We know he likes retribution and revenge.

But what are the odds he will stay within the constitution or even the bounds of human decency?

Can anyone really say with confidence he won't set up some sort of brutal police/para-military force when he's in power, to round up Muslims, illegal immigrants, dissidents and undesirables?

Can anyone really say with confidence that such a force would not evolve into some form of death squad?

Aside from whatever terrible havoc he might start overseas, such bombing Iran, what is the worst case scenario for us domestically?