CajunBlazer
CajunBlazer's Journal(Updated 12/31) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com
(No new Democratic primary polls on 12/31)
Wednesday, 12/30
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Gravis) Clinton 50, Sanders 27, O'Malley 1
Clinton +23
(Note: No new Democratic primary polls between 12/23 and 12/30
Wednesday, 12/23
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CNN/ORC) Clinton 50, Sanders 34, O'Malley 3
Clinton +16
Tuesday, 12/22
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Quinnipiac) Clinton 61, Sanders 30, O'Malley 2
Clinton +31
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Rasmussen Reports) Clinton 46, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7
Clinton +16
Monday, 12/21
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Sunday, 12/20
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 50, Sanders 45, O'Malley 4
Clinton +5
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Sanders 56, Clinton 42, O'Malley 1
Sanders +14
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 67, Sanders 31, O'Malley 2
Clinton +36
Saturday, December 19
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus Gravis Clinton 50, Sanders 27, O'Malley 1 Clinton +23
Friday, December 18
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 56, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +22
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (ABC /Wash Post) Clinton 59, Sanders 28, O'Malley 5
Clinton +31
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Boston Herald) Sanders 48, Clinton 46, O'Malley 2
Sanders +2
Thursday, December 17
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Wednesday, 12/16/15
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +33
Tuesday, December 15
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Loras College) Clinton 59, Sanders 27, O'Malley 4
Clinton +32
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 52, Sanders 34, O'Malley 7
Clinton +18
Monday, December 14
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC/WSJ) Clinton 56, Sanders 37, O'Malley 4
Clinton +19
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (DMR/Bloomberg) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 4
Clinton +9
Sunday, December 13
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (FOX News) Clinton 50, Sanders 36, O'Malley 5
Clinton +14
Women’s Self Defense Against Sexual Assault
I am a 5th Degree Black Belt in a Japanese style of Karate. I occasionally teach a self defense class to women in my area. The following are my notes from my basic class. Hopefully they will be of some use to you.
This course is not intended to make you paranoid; your chances of being attacked in a particular situation are very small. However, you do need to be aware that it can happen. Every two minutes, someone in the U.S. is sexually assaulted. One out of every six American women has been the victim of a sexual assault in their lifetime. Statistics show that any woman, young or old can be the victim of a sexual attack. Two thirds of the attacks are committed by someone the victim knows, at least casually. Many assaults are never reported.
Let’s talk about how women can avoid being attacked. Awareness is always the first step in being prepared. At the end of this class I want you to be better prepared to prevent assaults from happening in the first place, and better prepared to survive one if it happens to you.
Q. What is the most important thing you can do to not become the victim of an attack by a predator?
A. Don’t put your self in the position of being attacked in the first place.
Let’s take situation that could happen in real life – to someone who is blissfully unaware that she could be a victim. As you read through this scenario, see if you can determine what this women is doing wrong which will leave her vulnerable to an assault.
A woman normally works regular hours in downtown office building. She usually gets off around 4:30 so she usually walk to her car in a nearby parking garage a couple of blocks in the daylight when there are usually a lot of people around.
Lately, however, her workload has increased dramatically and she been working nearly late every night on a big project. Often she feels that she could work all night and still not get everything done, but she has her limits and has been routinely knocking off at about 8:00 every night.
Every evening at about that time she walks, in her high heels, a couple dark, usually deserted city blocks from her work place to the deck where she parks her car.
Note: this article is not about blaming for sexual assaults. It is about how to avoid making yourself easy prey for the cowards who are responsible for assaults and what to do if you are assaulted. Remember that most sexual assaults are by someone the victim knows, so it it important to know how to defend yourself. It is knowledge that could save your life.
Rest of the article here > Women’s Self Defense Against Sexual Assault
The Recapture of Ramadi from ISIS is a Very Big Deal
The victory of Iraqi army troops in Ramadi is a major blow to ISIS after the terrorist group has suffered a series of setbacks in Iraq. The expulsion of ISIS fighters from Ramadi, probably the second most important city lost to ISIS after the city of Mosul, is very symbolic. It begins to unravel the ISIS claim to legitimacy and arguably its best recruiting tool - the establishment of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria and then throughout the Middle East. If ISIS can not conquer and maintain territory, it's caliphate cannot long endure. Without safe territory from which to operate and the caliphate as a symbol of its legitimacy , it will be far more difficult for ISIS propagandist to effectively radicalize other Muslims from afar.
It is important that the Iraq army was up to the task. Since it is a Sunni enclave, it was important that it was the army who liberated the Ramadi, and not the Shia militias and their Iranian allies who have been doing most of the fighting against ISIS until now. It probably even more important that Sunni tribesmen who live in that area joined the Iraqi army's assault against ISIS which claims to be fighting for Sunni Muslims everywhere. Now it is important for the Iraqi army to continue to maintain control of the city. The Shia lead government in Baghdad must provide the citizens of Ramadi a measure of autonomy. Ultimately total victory against ISIS in Iraq cannot be achieved unless the Sunnis are provided the right to participate fully in the Iraqi government.
It's going to be a long war; there informed estimates that it will take the Iraqi army at least a year to recapture Mosul and still longer to rid the entire country of the ISIS scourge. Even then, ISIS will continue to operate almost with impunity in Syria. It will continue to do so until a political solution is reached to remove the Assad government from power and steps are taken to naturalize belligerent forces. Only then can ISIS be rooted out entirely.
Meanwhile, ISIS will still be a threat around the world based on their ability to radicalize young men and women in our midst. This is where our courage will be tested. We can only be terrorized if we give into to that fear. Right wing politicians in this country and around the world will try to emphasis the threat and fan the flames of fear in order to gain and retain power. In the process they will try to turn the citizens in their countries against the Muslims in their midst and in the process will cultivate fertile ground for ISIS self radicalization.
ISIS can only terrorize us if we give into to the fear that they endeavor to cultivate and resort to self destructive actions. We must stand tall like the citizens of Paris and prove that we will not be terrorized.
The original article can be found here: The Recapture of Ramadi from ISIS is a Very Big Deal
The Bible and Homosexuality
I live in the middle of the Bible belt where people who call themselves “Christians” are prone to use their religious beliefs to justify their prejudices. This is not surprising since like radical Muslims and other far right conservatives, they also often try to incorporate their religious morality into state law. Sometimes in order to get their attention you have to beat them at their own game. This article was originally published in January of 2014 and is republished here at the end of 2015 because it is one of my favorites from the past.Recently I read several readers’ opinion pieces in our local newspaper which attempted explain their bigoted views on homosexuality. One in particular provided several quotes from scripture to bolster her argument that “the gay lifestyle is not consistent with Christian teachings”. Now this person was no biblical scholar – in her piece she stated that Jesus (not John) wrote the book of Revelations – but in a larger context I firmly believe we need to be very careful about using quotes from scripture in sociological arguments.
It is said with some justification that one can find something in the Bible to justify almost any position. In Mathew 4.1-11, when Satan was tempting Jesus in the desert, did the devil not quote scripture to his own ends, and Jesus called him on it. Today no one would argue that slavery is justified by the Bible, but when slave owners were battling with abolitionist to defend the institution of slavery they used the following quotes from the Bible to justify their positions: “slaves obey your earthly masters with fear and trembling” (Ephesians 6.5) and ‘tell slaves to be submissive to their masters and give satisfaction in every respect” (Titus 2.9).
More > http://www.cajunscomments.com/the-bible-and-homosexuality-2/ ?
News Networks Are Dancing to Trump’s Tune
Note, when I wrote this I didn't know I was channeling Bernie Sanders who said almost the same thing on CNN a few minutes ago. I was reminded watching him that he and Trump have similar poll numbers - Bernie's are actually somewhat better - but it is Trump who gets all of the media attention.Everyday I wake up to a new Donald Trump story on CNN. I understand it is the same on all of the other cable news networks as well. CNN, FOX News, MSNBC and the like are driven by ratings and people are fascinated with the bazaar and unusual. So I guess it isn’t unexpected that these networks are driven like rats to the Pied Piper’s tune to report on whatever absurd, outlandish or vile remarks to which Trump has recently given voice. Meanwhile other far more serious candidates are often neglected, unless of course they have been bashing Trump.
There is a reason why Trump, a multi-billionaire, is spending very little of his own money on his self financed campaign. This is no accident; Trump is craftily manipulating the news networks into giving him hundreds of minutes of free publicity. He is found the sweet spot for spreading his campaigns message – his outlandish remarks resonate with his core supporters and at the same time are almost impossible for the news networks to ignore. It is obvious that the news personalities reporting on the Trump phenomenon understand exactly what is happening, but Trump is like heroine to their networks; they know they are hooked, but they simply can’t help themselves. The only question is what unbelievable statement will next find its way out of Trump’s mouth.
I hear establishment Republicans on the news networks claiming time and time again that since Trump’s message resonates with only about of third of the Republican electorate, he will sooner or later be overtaken by more serious contenders. However, I think that they believe that message less and less every day, and that frightens the hell out of them. They know that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, there is little chance that this reality TV clown can win the general election.
More > News Networks Are Dancing to Trump’s Tune
How to interpret polls and their accuracies
For only those who really care, this is how the accuracy of polls is actually measured:
The margin of error of polls that you hear on TV are not normally stated with full accuracy. They should be stated like this example: "This poll is calculated to be accurate within 3%, 95% of the time." (The 95% figure - or two standard deviations from the mean - is the figure most used for polling results.)
Since the accuracy of poll results are measured on a bell shaped curve, for our example this means that there is a 2.5% chance that the actual result will be greater 3% inaccurate on the negative side and a 2.5% chance of it being greater than 3% inaccurate on the positive side. For instance lets say that in our example poll the results state that a candidate will take 50% of the vote. What the poll is really stating is that there is a 95% chance that that candidate will take between 47% and 53% of the vote, a 2.5% chance that the candidate will take less than 47% and a 2.5% chance that the candidate will take more than 53% of the vote.
Also unstated it the fact that because of how probabilities under a bell shaped curve work, in our example poll there a fairly high likelihood that the poll the will be far more accurate than 3% either way. In our our poll example there would be a approximately a 68% chance that the actual results will be within 1.5% either way.
If you want to understand why an individual poll can be "off" quite a bit, but usually aren't, consider this example. Let's say that you have a thousand marbles in a jar, with 900 being green marbles and 100 being red. If you blindly took 100 marbles out of the jar, there is still a remotely small possibility that all of them will be red. So while it is unlikely, a particular poll can be somewhat off, but it is very highly unlikely that several polls which provide very similar results will be off by much.
Because their reputations are at stake, good polling companies go to extraordinary lengths to insure that the samples their polls are based on as accurately as possible represent the target population. For instance if a certain percentage of the population uses only cell phones, they will call cell phone numbers to insure that those people are properly sampled. Or let's say that 20% of the young people between 18 and 25 normally vote in elections, but because of special circumstances of a particular election, the preliminary polling data indicates that 50% of young people will vote this time around. The the polling companies will adjust their samples to include a larger percentage of young people.
Also keep in mind that polls are only accurate "if the election is held today" (the day that the sample is canvased). They cannot take into consideration the effect of unpredictable events which will occur between when the poll is taken and election day. Nor can they predict how conditions like very bad weather on election day will affect the results unless they are specifically formulated to do so. Of course the closer to election day the polls are taken, the more accurate they are likely to be.
The bottom line is that while a particular poll might be somewhat off no matter how diligent the polling company is choosing and canvasing their sample, polls are far more accurate than we believe them to be are when our candidate is behind, and less accurate than than we believe they are when our candidate is ahead.
(Updated 12/23) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com
Wednesday, 12/232016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CNN/ORC) Clinton 50, Sanders 34, O'Malley 3
Clinton +16
Tuesday, 12/22
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Quinnipiac) Clinton 61, Sanders 30, O'Malley 2
Clinton +31
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Rasmussen Reports) Clinton 46, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7
Clinton +16
Monday, 12/21
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Sunday, 12/20
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 50, Sanders 45, O'Malley 4
Clinton +5
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Sanders 56, Clinton 42, O'Malley 1
Sanders +14
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 67, Sanders 31, O'Malley 2
Clinton +36
Saturday, December 19
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Friday, December 18
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 56, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +22
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (ABC /Wash Post) Clinton 59, Sanders 28, O'Malley 5
Clinton +31
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Boston Herald) Sanders 48, Clinton 46, O'Malley 2
Sanders +2
Thursday, December 17
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Wednesday, 12/16/15
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +33
Tuesday, December 15
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Loras College) Clinton 59, Sanders 27, O'Malley 4
Clinton +32
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 52, Sanders 34, O'Malley 7
Clinton +18
Monday, December 14
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC/WSJ) Clinton 56, Sanders 37, O'Malley 4
Clinton +19
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (DMR/Bloomberg) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 4
Clinton +9
Sunday, December 13
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (FOX News) Clinton 50, Sanders 36, O'Malley 5
Clinton +14
Saturday, December 12
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Friday, December 11
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Thursday, 12/10
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CBS/NYTimes) Clinton 52, Sanders 32, O'Malley 2
Clinton +20
Wednesday, 12/9/15:
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CNN/WMUR) Sanders 50, Clinton 40, O'Malley 1
Sanders +10
If you think Bernie can win the general election
Folks posting on this board proudly point to polls showing Bernie beating Trump in General Election by margins greater than Hillary, but they are forgetting one political truism.
The longer a person is politics, generally the higher their negatives. Clinton has been in the Republican cross hairs for years. She has already weathered the worst they could throw at her so she has little downside. Bernie Sanders, not so much
Unfortunately, if he becomes the nominee Sanders will receive a lot more attention from the press, and especially from the Republicans and their mudslinging followers. The attacks on Sanders will be brutal. Let me state clearly that I don't think any of this will be fair, put politics is a brutal game. I can see the Republicans, and especially their PACS put together by Koch brothers and others of that ilk, painting the self described socialist as far worst. He will be described as a communist who adopted his current political stances from reading the writings of Marks, Lenin and Trotsky. Such attacks will stick better than you think.
All you have to do is used google, to see what is coming Sander's way:
Bernie Sanders Lived Off Unemployment, Couldn't Get a Non-Government Job Bernie Sanders can only exist when being paid by taxpayers.
Excerpt: "We're told that "He read Marx, Lenin and Trotsky." Like them, he wasn't big on working. Marx lived off Engels. Sanders lived off Uncle Sam." and it gets worse.
Even a relatively complementary article in Politico: Bernie Sanders Has a Secret
contains the phrase: "He read Marx, Lenin and Trotsky"
No I am not implying that just because someone is well read that he is communist,far from it, but I won't be the one painting the picture. It could be very nasty:
From an article: THE REAL BERNIE SANDERS
"Far from being an "outsider", Sanders is a dyed-in-the-wool pro-Fed and pro-Israel Marxist from Ben & Jerry's commie-pinko-hippie Vermont. Sander's fake "populism" is that of the Jewish rabble-rouser on a soap box, a la Leon Trotsky (Russia), Emma Goldman (United States), Rosa Luxemburg (Germany) and Bela Kun (Hungary)."
You can dismiss this kind of horrific rhetoric as ridiculous if you choose. but do you think that the Kock brothers are above using it.
Again, I am not writing this to smear Bernie - I believe non of it - I am just pointing out the political sewage which will be directed at Sanders if he wins the nomination.
Poll: Whan chance do you give Bernie Sanders of winning the Democratic nomination?
(Updated 12/22) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com Sunday
Tuesday, 12/222016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Quinnipiac) Clinton 61, Sanders 30, O'Malley 2
Clinton +31
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Rasmussen Reports) Clinton 46, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7
Clinton +16
Monday, 12/21
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Sunday, 12/20
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 50, Sanders 45, O'Malley 4
Clinton +5
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Sanders 56, Clinton 42, O'Malley 1
Sanders +14
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 67, Sanders 31, O'Malley 2
Clinton +36
Saturday, December 19th
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Friday, December 18th
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 56, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +22
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (ABC /Wash Post) Clinton 59, Sanders 28, O'Malley 5
Clinton +31
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Boston Herald) Sanders 48, Clinton 46, O'Malley 2
Sanders +2
Thursday, December 17
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Wednesday, 12/16/15
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +33
Tuesday, December 15
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Loras College) Clinton 59, Sanders 27, O'Malley 4
Clinton +32
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 52, Sanders 34, O'Malley 7
Clinton +18
Monday, December 14
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC/WSJ) Clinton 56, Sanders 37, O'Malley 4
Clinton +19
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (DMR/Bloomberg) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 4
Clinton +9
Sunday, December 13
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (FOX News) Clinton 50, Sanders 36, O'Malley 5
Clinton +14
Saturday, December 12
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Friday, December 11
(No new Democratic primary polls)
Thursday, 12/10
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CBS/NYTimes) Clinton 52, Sanders 32, O'Malley 2
Clinton +20
Wednesday, 12/9/15:
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CNN/WMUR) Sanders 50, Clinton 40, O'Malley 1
Sanders +10
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Alabama
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Jun 13, 2015, 05:35 PM
Number of posts: 5,648
