OUCH!

Also, regardless of party identification, only 36% of women (as contrasted with a mere 31% of men) have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

Clinton would be down ballot poison.

Most recent polls in each state:

New Hampshire - CBS/YouGov poll November 15–19, 2015 = 52% Sanders; 45% Clinton

Maine - Critical Insights poll September 24–30, 2015 = 28% Sanders; 27% Clinton

Utah - Dan Jones & Associates poll November 5-14, 2015 = 26% Sanders; 18% Clinton

Vermont - Castleton University poll August 24 - September 14, 2015 = 65% Sanders; 14% Clinton

link; excerpt:

Haim Saban, one of Hillary Clinton’s top donors, may be aligned with the Democratic Party. But when it comes to Mideast politics, he’s far from a progressive.
...
Except Saban’s top priority isn’t a liberal vision of American life. It’s Israel. And he makes no secret of that. “I’m a one-issue guy, and my issue is Israel,” Saban told the New Yorker in 2010.

Last week, Saban displayed a propensity all-too-common among right-leaning Israel advocates in the U.S.: a bit of anti-Muslim bigotry. In an interview, he rejected President Obama’s declaration that a religious test for refugees was “shameful.” Later, Saban, in a statement to the Washington Post, disavowed his push for a religious test and insisted that he “misspoke” — a dubious claim, if you ask me, though he might’ve legitimately been sorry he opened his mouth about the hot-button issue.
...
Yet Saban’s original comments included more than just advocating a blanket policy that Muslim refugees deserved “more scrutiny.” He also called for profiling and broader surveillance. He said civil liberties should be curtailed in a time of war—never mentioning that the U.S. seems to be locked in a never-ending war.

Great analysis; here's an excerpt:

A Bernie Sanders nomination would be the best thing that could happen to the Democratic Party.
... Bernie Sanders has been elected to office 14 times. Bernie won his last Senate campaign with 70% of the vote, including 25% of the Republicans. He also won by 8% more than what opinion polls predicted because of the non-traditional voters that come out to support him. 78% of Bernie’s supporters are enthusiastic.

Lets start with how popular Bernie is with independent voters. Bernie Sanders is polling strongest with independents. The IVN poll of independents shows Bernie is at 45% to Trump 26%, Ben Carson 19%, Rand Paul 12%, and Clinton 9%. In a head to head matchup, Bernie cleans up with independents over Clinton 59-21%. Being an independent himself for so long certainly helps (Bernie is the longest serving independent in the history of Congress), but the greater appeal is with how direct Bernie is and how he has consistently fought for the same things for decades. People of all political persuasions appreciate those things, even if they disagree with some of his issue stances.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley has raised a worrisome documented email problem reigniting a smoldering problem for the Clinton campaign:

According to an invoice from September, the Colorado-based firm that handled Clinton’s private email server billed her for “legal defense” and “PR” related to the device. ... “The invoice raises questions as to whether Secretary Clinton has similar arrangements with other people or entities associated with her email server,” Grassley (R-Iowa), who leads the Senate Judiciary Committee, wrote to lawyers for Clinton and her former top State Department aides on Wednesday.

“In light of this, it is important for the committee to know whether Secretary Clinton and her attorneys are providing financial support, legal support, or other coordination to those associates of hers who are involved in congressional committee and federal law enforcement inquiries relating to her email server. ... Grassley noted that Bryan Pagliano, the former State Department employee who helped set up and maintain Clinton’s server, has discussed legal immunity in exchange for testimony about Clinton and her former advisers.

As such, his participation in possible joint legal arrangements “would raise substantial concerns,” Grassley warned.

Say what you will about Grassley, he gets lots of press coverage in Iowa.

link; excerpt:

In a micro way, 2016 feels like it should be a Democratic year: The GOP is without a natural nominee, and it remains a party with a tremendous gulf between the establishment and its electorate on social issues. But–and there is always a but–the thoughts of these {focus-group} voters in Columbus, Ohio, underscores the challenge ahead for the Democrats in 2016.
...
Mrs. Clinton receives admiration and respect for her professional skills and background,... however, there is still a gulf for her to cross in order to connect with these Ohio voters and those nationwide. One does not sense that they are rooting for her but, rather, that they are hoping she stumbles so they can find a way to relate to her.

Hillary Clinton has often referred to the “glass ceiling” she is trying to break through. These voters also are trying to break through something, but their barrier is a glass curtain. Many feel they can see and hear her, but they do not think they can relate to or touch her. In their words, she is remote and distant. Whether it is her voice, manner, attitude, or language, there is a gulf. Since 1980, from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, voters have chosen the presidential candidate they perceived as more “likable and warm.” One year before the 2016 election, the challenge facing Hillary Clinton is to find a way to relate to voters and, more important, to provide voters a way to relate to her.

Source: NYT

...in a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday... More voters in the new survey said that Mr. Sanders could better handle the economy, voters’ No. 1 issue, and more think he shares their values and cares about people like them.
...
By 6-1, Democrats said Iowa should welcome Syrian refugees. Republicans opposed welcoming Syrian refugees by 5-1.

Nearly 60 percent of Democrats oppose sending ground troops to fight the Islamic State. Only 22 percent of Republicans are opposed.

Fifteen percent of Democrats named climate change was their No. 1 issue. The percentage of Republicans who said climate change was the top concern: zero.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/25/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-wins-iowans-heads-but-not-hearts/

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Pollster's chart of this month's polling in Iowa:



If you prefer numbers to charts:

November polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

50.5% Clinton
43% Sanders

October polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

54.1% Clinton
32.3% Sanders

So far, November in Iowa polling has been 10.7% better for Sanders and 3.6% worse for Clinton for a 14.5% closer race. In Iowa, Sanders has already overcome the bump Clinton received from Biden's announcement and the Benghazi hearings.

link; excerpt:

In what one analyst sees as "a really bad mistake," Hillary Clinton declined to participate in a presidential forum hosted by the 8 million-strong organization MoveOn.org.

Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley did take part in the virtual event in which they answered questions on issues ranging from campaign finance reform to climate change to the Syrian refugee crisis. ... "It’s a shame that Secretary Clinton declined to participate in the MoveOn member forum," Anna Galland, the executive director of MoveOn.org Civic Action, said in a statement to The Hill. "She missed an opportunity to speak directly to and energize the progressive base she’ll need in her corner not just to win the nomination but also the general election, if she is the party's nominee."

"Our forum gave grassroots progressives the chance to pose substantive questions directly to presidential candidates—exactly what democracy is about— and we’re grateful to Sen. Sanders and Gov. O’Malley for participating," Galland's statement continued.

Ilya Sheyman, executive director of MoveOn.org Political Action, said last month that the forum would "help Democratic candidates engage with millions of progressive Americans who constitute an influential part of the party’s base and who will play a significant role in the coming primaries and caucuses." That's a point noted by Democratic strategist Mike Lux, who told MSNBC that Clinton's missing the event was "a really bad mistake."

"She’s blowing that part of the [Democratic] base off, and with 8 million members, that’s a lot of people," he said.... As Common Dreams reported last week: From her call for a major air and ground war against ISIS to her attack on single-payer, observers note that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is rapidly shedding her "progressive" façade as she grows increasingly confident ...

Source: Washington Post

As of the last reporting period at the end of September, some 301,154 women gave money to Sanders in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to his campaign. That would top the approximately 240,000 women who have given money to Clinton since she launched her campaign....

Symone Sanders, a spokeswoman for the Sanders campaign, said the number shows "the grassroots enthusiasm for Senator Sanders is unmatched by any other candidate. The fact that so many women have decided to donate to the senator's campaign says that his policies and record are indeed resonating with women across the country."...

Sanders claims more than 689,000 individual donors to nearly 400,000 for Clinton. That means that the former secretary of state still can brag that a higher percentage of her contributors are women -- 60 percent versus 44 percent for Sanders.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/25/sanders-campaign-says-it-has-more-women-donors-than-clinton/