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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,480

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Politico review of Obama's book is really something else

They really are just a completely nasty publication.


Summary: how could Obama have turned his failed presidency into a success?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Nov 20, 2020, 09:01 AM (7 replies)

Are you prepared to trade tax cuts for progressive policy legislation?

Just curious if we have divided government going forward: would you give Republican lawmakers tax cuts for the wealthy if we could get a public option to the ACA or meaningful climate legislation
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:10 PM (38 replies)

Biden looking good in NE-02

Paths seem to be slowly closing for Trump. https://twitter.com/asanderford/status/1323866707472113664
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Nov 4, 2020, 02:11 AM (6 replies)

Anyone following this bananas fireworks conspiracy?

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Jun 22, 2020, 03:26 PM (6 replies)

Second part of SC case going better

Sekulow is bad. Several commentators noted it sounded like he and Thomas had coordinated their dialogue in advance.

Would not be surprised.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue May 12, 2020, 12:23 PM (5 replies)

Think we just lost the Supreme Court case

Kavanaugh softballed House Counsel Doug Letter with a chance to clarify a limiting principle on a House subpoena power and Letter could not do it. Ugh heís so bad. Heís always been bad. Ugh ugh.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue May 12, 2020, 11:39 AM (38 replies)

Biden Accuser Charged with Check Kiting a few days before termination?

This seems to be the same person. Itís the same town her mom called Larry King from, which was also a few days after this charge.


Update: confirmation from courthouse.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri May 8, 2020, 02:23 AM (27 replies)

Apparently Tara Reade's dad wrote a novel with a sex scene that seems very familiar

This is, to say the least, curious.

on edit: I'm trying to obfuscate the link a little as it's graphic and I don't want people to be upset...


Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Apr 30, 2020, 09:51 AM (55 replies)

IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end

I don't know why they haven't updated their parameters in more than a week. We will be over 45K, maybe close to 46K by the end of today.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Apr 21, 2020, 05:32 PM (16 replies)

IHME model needs updating badly


Their median estimate is still 60k deaths between now and August.

If we are lucky we are just peaking now worth ~ 40k dead. Assuming a completely symmetric peak which is a best case scenario thatís at least 80k deaths by midsummer. But we know the plateau on case growth is a long one, 80k has got to be a lower bound.

On the upside their upper bound confidence envelope is really high so at least theyíve got the upside risk right.

On edit: their lower bound estimate is LOWER than the actual number of deaths right now. What does that even mean?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:34 PM (17 replies)
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