reggieandlee
reggieandlee's JournalBTRTN: Incoming, Outgoing? Cool Pete Can Take the Heat, While Joe Blows His Toes Off
Born To Run The Numbers provides its overnight analysis of last night's Democratic Debate.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-incoming-outgoing-cool-pete-can.html
Excerpts: "The next Presidential election is eleven months away. The first caucus votes won’t be cast until next year. Yep, it is time for most Democratic candidates to panic. They are running out of time to change the hardening narratives...the stress is showing..."
"...the first hour of the debate was a long stretch of civility, with no shouting, and none of the Bill de Blasio-style interruptions that made the first few debates look like an elementary school. It was largely a bunch of wonks at a world-class wonk-fest..."
"Then it all changed.The initial trigger may have been when Kamala Harris was asked to comment upon a criticism she had made of Pete Buttigieg...Harris spoke passionately about the core of the Democratic party being African American female voters, and about how many candidates seemed to only focus on this group when they were asking for their vote. While Harris made clear that she harbored no ill will toward Buttigieg, her response squarely placed the issue of the role of African-American voters center stage... Buttigieg was clearly prepared for a question about his relationship with the African American community. He began his response by agreeing with Harris. He cited common ground with the plight of African Americans and other minorities by virtue of his own sexual orientation. He addressed the issue with humility, grace, and an acknowledgement that he needed to continue to build his relationship with African Americans. It was an elegant, thoughtful, and emotionally revealing answer..."
"Pete Buttigieg is emerging as the candidate for the Instagram generation, conveying everything you need to know in the instant that he is scrolling down your feed. As he continues his rise, one would expect him to become more and more of a target in these debates. But he is so good at parrying attacks that his rivals on stage may not want to risk triggering one of his devastating counterpunches..."
BTRTN: Republican Impeachment Defense Release 13.0. "The Senate Won't Convict. Screw You, Democrats"
Born To Run The Numbers traces the "software releases" for each successive Republican impeachment defense strategy, and predicts the arrival of the "Release 13.0," and prescribes what the Democrats must do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-republican-impeachment-defense.html
Excerpts: "I just went on Amazon and found out that there has been another delay in Release 13.0, the new, latest, most up-to-date Republican impeachment defense strategy. Apparently the Republicans are going to wait until E.U. Ambassador Gordon Sondland testifies, so that they can once again tweak, modify, or completely change their line of defense to adjust to new revelations from his testimony. I am really eager to get the latest release, because they say it will correct a bunch of those buggy patches that made Lindsay Graham appear more twisted than a DNA chromosome. For those of you who are not on the group chat for the software de-bugger, here’s a quick recap of the releases to date..."
"Abuse of Presidential power? Bribery? Extortion? Do any of those crimes really have a chance against Republican Release 13.0? I don’t think so. Not if the Democrats don’t start learning how to play hardball. Dems, there is one war going on in the House Impeachment Inquiry, and Adam Schiff is doing a great job leading that. But there is a second front in this war, and it is being played out in the court of public opinion, and it is here that the Democrats need to step up their game. Dramatically..."
"We can all already see where this is going. The Republicans are going to do, say, and claim anything to justify a vote for acquittal. Democrats need to get out ahead of this story, trace it to the obvious and logical end point of its trajectory, and start litigating that outcome now. Democrats must point out today what Republicans intend to do, and vehemently begin to attack those positions now. There are three keys to this..."
BTRTN: Republican Impeachment Defense Release 13.0. "The Senate Won't Convict. Screw You, Democrats"
Born To Run The Numbers traces the "software releases" for each successive Republican impeachment defense strategy, and predicts the arrival of the "Release 13.0," and prescribes what the Democrats must do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-republican-impeachment-defense.html
Excerpts: "I just went on Amazon and found out that there has been another delay in Release 13.0, the new, latest, most up-to-date Republican impeachment defense strategy. Apparently the Republicans are going to wait until E.U. Ambassador Gordon Sondland testifies, so that they can once again tweak, modify, or completely change their line of defense to adjust to new revelations from his testimony. I am really eager to get the latest release, because they say it will correct a bunch of those buggy patches that made Lindsay Graham appear more twisted than a DNA chromosome. For those of you who are not on the group chat for the software de-bugger, here’s a quick recap of the releases to date..."
"Abuse of Presidential power? Bribery? Extortion? Do any of those crimes really have a chance against Republican Release 13.0? I don’t think so. Not if the Democrats don’t start learning how to play hardball. Dems, there is one war going on in the House Impeachment Inquiry, and Adam Schiff is doing a great job leading that. But there is a second front in this war, and it is being played out in the court of public opinion, and it is here that the Democrats need to step up their game. Dramatically..."
"We can all already see where this is going. The Republicans are going to do, say, and claim anything to justify a vote for acquittal. Democrats need to get out ahead of this story, trace it to the obvious and logical end point of its trajectory, and start litigating that outcome now. Democrats must point out today what Republicans intend to do, and vehemently begin to attack those positions now. There are three keys to this..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: Changing of the Guard? Pete Ascendant as Warren Flattens in a Wide Open Race
Born To Run The Numbers has just posted their latest "2020 Vision," which provides in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis of the state of the 2020 Presidential campaign. It is an up-to-the-minute view, with polling data on primary states:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-2020-vision-changing-of-guard.html
Excerpts: "It’s a four-candidate race in Iowa, with Pete Buttigieg nudging ahead of the field, followed (very) closely by Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. But recent polls show that Warren’s upward dash in Iowa and New Hampshire may have peaked, as she comes under attack for her “Medicare for All” policy, which is now defining her campaign (oddly, since it is the only policy plan that she did not author herself, instead she endorsed Sanders’ plan).
"Biden continues to show resiliency in the face of an uneven run, maintaining the same lead in the national polls he has enjoyed for months, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats. He also continues to be the strongest candidate versus Trump in head-to-head polling, particularly in the key red states that must be flipped on the 'path to 270' in 2020.
"Those rumblings of dissatisfaction with the state of the field you heard turned out to be the footsteps of Deval Patrick, who entered the race, and Mike Bloomberg, who met a filing deadline for Alabama, though remains undeclared.
"Heretofore minor candidates are showing the slightest signs of life here and there, and our eyes are on Amy Klobuchar – is she entering the radar screen in Iowa?"
BTRTN: Who Are We Supporting for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
A year out from the 2020 election, Tom and Steve of Born To Run The Numbers provide a "point/counterpoint" on who they each support as of now for the Democratic nomination, and a thorough rationale for each point of view:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-who-are-we-supporting-for-2020.html
Excerpts from Steve: "If the Democrats nominate either Sanders or Warren, and they center their campaigns on eliminating private healthcare insurance, the Democrats are doing the one thing that could hand the election to Trump. Bear in mind: the Democratic strength on the issue of healthcare was at the epicenter of why the Dems were able to flip the House in the mid-terms. Elizabeth Warren could take the single greatest Democratic advantage and instantly turn it into their greatest single liability...So quietly and patiently Buttigieg, slipped into the airstream behind Biden’s centrist wake, and waited for the gaffe machine to explode. When it happened, Pete was the only candidate ready to pick up the centrist gauntlet. In February, 2020, Pete Buttigieg becomes the candidate that a short time before had only been known as 'anybody but Warren.'
Excerpts from Tom:" ...Here is the simple truth: Biden, based on the facts, is the surest bet to beat Donald Trump, plain and simple. Yhose facts may very well change by the time of the Democratic primary in New York, my home state, on April 28, 2020, and thus I reserve the right to change my mind. But the logic train leads to Biden
emocrats have learned, in very painful ways, that presidential elections are won on the basis of swing state outcomes as they effect the electoral vote, and the popular vote means little (see: 2000, 2016). This is largely due to California, where the Democrats often roll up huge margins in this gigantic blue state, most of which don’t 'count.' Democrats are fond of saying that Hillary Clinton won by 3 million votes in 2016, but she won by 4 million votes in California, which means the other 49 states went for Trump by 1 million..."
BTRTN 2020 Election Reader Poll
Born to Run the Numbers asks readers to participate in its 2020 election poll:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-election-day-reader-poll-very.html
Excerpt:
Hello Readers, and Happy Election Day! It's time to take your 2020 temperature -- to ask you, our readers, a few simple questions about how you think things are going to turn out one year from today. Your responses, of course, will be held in complete confidence. Here are the questions:
1) Who do you think will be the Republican nominee for president? (PREDICTION, not PREFERENCE.)
2) Who do you think will be the Democratic nominee for president? (PREDICTION, not PREFERENCE)
3) Who do you think will win the presidency, between these two candidates?
4) As of today, who do you WANT to be the Democratic Party nominee? (PREFERENCE)
Please email your response to us at borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com
BTRTN: The House Impeachment/Senate Trial Endgame - Our Prediction
Born To Run The Numbers October review includes its prediction for how the impeachment of Donald Trump will unfold through trial in the Senate:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-impeachmenttrial-endgame-our.html
Excerpts:
"The House impeachment inquiry moved along at a lightning pace, as a series of diplomats and White House advisors disdained 'stonewalling' and described the Ukraine fiasco in full, revealing a shadow foreign policy hinged on a quid pro quo – Trump would release U.S. aid to and provide public support for Ukraine, in return for publicly declared and politically motivated Ukraine investigations into the Biden’s, and Hillary Clinton’s server.
"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, suddenly in possession of a wealth of incriminating evidence, must now decide how to balance the desire for additional corroborative testimony from willing witnesses (including, potentially, John Bolton) with the need for speed.
"Pelosi now faces a balancing act. Given that the facts are largely known, based on the evidence and testimony to date, what is the value of additional witnesses? Is it better to proceed to the public testimony now, while the story is clear and the momentum is in the Dems’ favor? Or go for more revelations, but at the risk of detracting from the 2020 election as we head into primary season?
"The endgame is beginning to come into view. Here is the BTRTN prediction, barring any further even more spectacular revelations..."
BTRTN: The House Impeachment/Senate Trial Endgame - Our Prediction
Born To Run The Numbers October review includes its prediction for how the impeachment of Donald Trump will unfold through trial in the Senate:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-impeachmenttrial-endgame-our.html
Excerpts:
"The House impeachment inquiry moved along at a lightning pace, as a series of diplomats and White House advisors disdained 'stonewalling' and described the Ukraine fiasco in full, revealing a shadow foreign policy hinged on a quid pro quo – Trump would release U.S. aid to and provide public support for Ukraine, in return for publicly declared and politically motivated Ukraine investigations into the Biden’s, and Hillary Clinton’s server.
"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, suddenly in possession of a wealth of incriminating evidence, must now decide how to balance the desire for additional corroborative testimony from willing witnesses (including, potentially, John Bolton) with the need for speed.
"Pelosi now faces a balancing act. Given that the facts are largely known, based on the evidence and testimony to date, what is the value of additional witnesses? Is it better to proceed to the public testimony now, while the story is clear and the momentum is in the Dems’ favor? Or go for more revelations, but at the risk of detracting from the 2020 election as we head into primary season?
"The endgame is beginning to come into view. Here is the BTRTN prediction, barring any further even more spectacular revelations..."
BTRTN: Trump Implicitly Defines "Impeachable Offense," and Officials Line Up to Accuse Him of it
Born to Run the Numbers notes that there "too many ironies in the fire." As Trump railed that there was no "quid pro quo," he seemed to understand that such an action would be an "impeachable offense." Now witnesses are parading forth to accuse him of exactly that:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-too-many-ironies-in-firetrump.html
Excerpts: "Ah, Republicans.They govern with a fist of irony. They swear their party allegiance by taking the hypocritical oath. Pity that they are insufficiently self-aware to see the Sybil war within their own party and, indeed, within their own psyches..."
"The essential question of the moment was this: had Donald Trump overtly demanded dirt on a political opponent in exchange for the release of American military aid to an ally? Donald Trump seemed to immediately understand and fully grasp that overtly holding military aid hostage in return for requiring a foreign government to commit character assassination on Trump’s political rival was wrong. He apparently understood that such a “quid pro quo” would be anybody and everybody’s idea of a “high crime or misdemeanor.” Because he spent the next days screaming from the mountaintop that there was “no quid pro quo.” Out on the South Lawn helicopter briefings, during the rallies of the faithful, and an all-cap favorite on Twitter, NO QUID PRO QUO was it. It became the official White House stance...
"Donald Trump so aggressively championed the idea that there was “no quid pro quo” because he wanted to set the bar for defining an 'impeachable offense.' Trump intended that this phrase would be the exact same firewall that “no collusion” was for the Mueller probe. For Mueller, it was this: If you can’t prove collusion, you cannot impeach. For Ukraine, Trump wants this: If you cannot prove a quid pro quo, then you cannot impeach. Ah, but what if you can?"
BTRTN: Trump Implicitly Defines "Impeachable Offense," and Officials Line Up to Accuse Him of it
Born to Run the Numbers notes that there "too many ironies in the fire." As Trump railed that there was no "quid pro quo," he seemed to understand that such an action would be an "impeachable offense." Now witnesses are parading forth to accuse him of exactly that:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-too-many-ironies-in-firetrump.html
Excerpts: "Ah, Republicans.They govern with a fist of irony. They swear their party allegiance by taking the hypocritical oath. Pity that they are insufficiently self-aware to see the Sybil war within their own party and, indeed, within their own psyches..."
"The essential question of the moment was this: had Donald Trump overtly demanded dirt on a political opponent in exchange for the release of American military aid to an ally? Donald Trump seemed to immediately understand and fully grasp that overtly holding military aid hostage in return for requiring a foreign government to commit character assassination on Trump’s political rival was wrong. He apparently understood that such a “quid pro quo” would be anybody and everybody’s idea of a “high crime or misdemeanor.” Because he spent the next days screaming from the mountaintop that there was “no quid pro quo.” Out on the South Lawn helicopter briefings, during the rallies of the faithful, and an all-cap favorite on Twitter, NO QUID PRO QUO was it. It became the official White House stance...
"Donald Trump so aggressively championed the idea that there was “no quid pro quo” because he wanted to set the bar for defining an 'impeachable offense.' Trump intended that this phrase would be the exact same firewall that “no collusion” was for the Mueller probe. For Mueller, it was this: If you can’t prove collusion, you cannot impeach. For Ukraine, Trump wants this: If you cannot prove a quid pro quo, then you cannot impeach. Ah, but what if you can?"
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