reggieandlee
reggieandlee's JournalMiami Vise: Who's Gonna Get Squeezed in the Dem Debates?
Born To Run The Numbers makes predictions about the Democratic debates: who will rise, who will fall, who will beat expectations, and who will flat-line in the aftermath...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/miami-vise-whos-gonna-get-squeezed-in.html
Excerpts: "This will be the essential drama of the debates, and it is Biden’s Miami Vise. Will Biden attempt to play it safe and project the aspect of his personality that is wise, measured, cautious, above the fray, and presidential – and risk appearing to be low-T, saggy old Grandpa Faux Pas? Or will he bound onto the stage, bursting with sass and wreaking ‘tood, all in a calculated effort to show that he can still mix it up with the kids and has the moxy to take it to the Insulter-in-Chief next fall? ...Biden’s performance will be further magnified by the fact that many of the candidates will be playing Biden Go Seek.
"Talk about a Miami Vise: to Bernie’s left is a younger, female, high-energy ascending rock star who has stolen his thunder as the party’s leftist policy wonk, and to Bernie’s right is another craggy over-75-year-old white guy who is crushing him in the early polls...
"Many Americans will be seeing Buttigieg for the first time on Thursday night, and you can fully expect that a large percentage will be as charmed by him as those who have followed him closely on cable news. The bet here is that while Biden’s performance is considered solid, Buttigieg is the next morning’s lead story.
"The conventional wisdom is that there is 'no downside to running for President.' That theory holds that a run is great for name recognition, visibility, and can set you up for a cabinet post or even the VP nod. However, it is hard to see how that theory is holding up for any of Kirsten Gillibrand, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, or Amy Klobuchar..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Warm Up Act is Over, It's Debate Time
Born To Run The Numbers provides their mid-monthly summary of the current state of the Democratic race for the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-2020-vision-warm-up-act-is-over.html
Excerpts:"The Democratic field is set and the first debates, the first real event of the campaign, are just around the corner. Joe Biden is the front runner but the race is tightening, with five “Tier 1” candidates... and Biden is already displaying his vulnerabilities.
"Biden took the first of many punches he will have to endure, with the initial blow more or less self-inflicted. And this qualifies as the rarely performed 'triple flip flop,' the first known record of this particular political gymnastic feat...
"Of course the polls can change in the blink of a two-minute spiel in the upcoming debates, but as of now, both in Iowa and nationally, there are only five candidates with material support: Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren...
"Warren is coming on strong...performing extremely well on the campaign trail, and with her authentic Oklahoma lower middle class back story and her dazzling array (and command) of policy positions, she is rising in the polls both in Iowa and nationally. She is now challenging Sanders for the lefty wing of the party, and he is declining in Iowa, starting to feel a bit like yesterday’s news...
"Mayor Pete is the darling of 2020 thus far, at 37 less than half the age of Biden and Sanders...Like Warren, he speaks in whole paragraphs, and seems to make perfect sense whenever he opens his mouth, with a sly wit that echoes JFK and Obama. Everyone likes him, and he is getting even better on the trail day by day. He is the only “no name” candidate to have jumped into the first tier...
"Kamala Harris has not hit her stride as a candidate yet, but, to borrow a sports phrase, she has a 'high ceiling' – she is smart, accomplished, well-spoken and telegenic, with a great backstory, and Democrats seem to want her to succeed. If she can find her groove on the campaign trail – or in the debates – she could move up considerably."
BTRTN: Catch 1776... How Will We Repair our Democracy When It's So Hard to Fix the Constitution?
Born To Run The Numbers on the assault that Trump, Barr, and McConnell are waging on our Constitution, our democracy, and the customs and traditions that enable our government to function... and what we can do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-catch-1776-how-will-we-repair-our.html
Excerpts: "...That, however, was before the Republicans had finished assembling the troika of imperialists determined to re-introduce monarchy to America in the original George III form, a version devoid of the endearing understatement and benign inefficacy we associate with Prince Charles and Masterpiece Theater. No, in this remake, Trump, McConnell, and Barr are taking a quiet sledgehammer to our system of government, and still have another eighteen months to finish their, uh, crowning achievement...The Presidency is almost dead, long live the King..."
"And that is where we come to our true constitutional crisis....As wise as the Founding Fathers were, they did not anticipate that an utterly corrupt individual would attain the Presidency and then be insulated from impeachment by an equally corrupt political party with a greater interest in maintaining power than in preserving a government of, by, and for the people... "
"We, the people, now have a government led by a man who the majority of citizens did not vote for. We have a Supreme Court that was tipped by an unprincipled hypocrite in favor of a judicial philosophy that does not represent the rightful will of the people. We have a legislative branch that is so hopelessly polarized and gridlocked that it cannot even pass background checks for gun purchases that are favored by over 90% of the citizens. We have a Department of Justice that covers up the illegal acts of a President, even as it accedes to that President’s wish that investigative probes be launched on his political opponents..."
"What was once a noble and shining triumph of government of, by, and for the people is at risk of becoming an imperial state of Barr, by McConnell, and for Trump..."
BTRTN: Catch 1776... How Will We Repair our Democracy When It's So Hard to Fix the Constitution?
Born To Run The Numbers on the assault that Trump, Barr, and McConnell are waging on our Constitution, our democracy, and the customs and traditions that enable our government to function... and what we can do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-catch-1776-how-will-we-repair-our.html
Excerpts: "...That, however, was before the Republicans had finished assembling the troika of imperialists determined to re-introduce monarchy to America in the original George III form, a version devoid of the endearing understatement and benign inefficacy we associate with Prince Charles and Masterpiece Theater. No, in this remake, Trump, McConnell, and Barr are taking a quiet sledgehammer to our system of government, and still have another eighteen months to finish their, uh, crowning achievement...The Presidency is almost dead, long live the King..."
"And that is where we come to our true constitutional crisis....As wise as the Founding Fathers were, they did not anticipate that an utterly corrupt individual would attain the Presidency and then be insulated from impeachment by an equally corrupt political party with a greater interest in maintaining power than in preserving a government of, by, and for the people... "
"We, the people, now have a government led by a man who the majority of citizens did not vote for. We have a Supreme Court that was tipped by an unprincipled hypocrite in favor of a judicial philosophy that does not represent the rightful will of the people. We have a legislative branch that is so hopelessly polarized and gridlocked that it cannot even pass background checks for gun purchases that are favored by over 90% of the citizens. We have a Department of Justice that covers up the illegal acts of a President, even as it accedes to that President’s wish that investigative probes be launched on his political opponents..."
"What was once a noble and shining triumph of government of, by, and for the people is at risk of becoming an imperial state of Barr, by McConnell, and for Trump..."
BTRTN May 2019 Month in Review: Stuck Inside of No Deal with Those Endless Blues Again
Born to Run the Numbers provides its review of May, a month in which government seemed to finally grind to a halt or actively regress. So much for the "art of the deal..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-may-2019-month-in-review-stuck.html
Excerpts:
"Is there absolutely anything associated with Trump’s Washington that is not completely stuck, or in reverse? When you consider the two major themes of the month – life in post-Mueller Washington and Trump’s foreign policy initiatives – there is no discernible sign of constructive movement, anywhere...
"The likelihood of significant legislation (e.g., infrastructure, drug prices) moving through Congress is, at this point, laughable. And the global scene is even more disturbing, with backsliding in every area of Trump focus: China, North Korea, Iran and Israel. Everything Trump touches overseas is destabilizing, and the potential consequences of an angry Trump are dire.
"But Mueller not only said nothing new, he indicated that was his last word on the subject – no questions, no congressional testimony, nothing. Another dead end in Washington, and with so much at stake, such a dense report to absorb, so much to clarify, with so little understanding, it is remarkable that Robert Mueller believes that his report is sufficient. Another “no deal” in a dead end town...
"What is going right for Trump? Just one thing: the economy. The latest GDP figures confirmed 3.1% growth in the first quarter, and the economy added 263,000 jobs. Why Trump does not just shut up about everything else and talk up the economy is beyond me..."
BTRTN May 2019 Month in Review: Stuck Inside of No Deal with Those Endless Blues Again
Born to Run the Numbers provides its review of May, a month in which government seemed to finally grind to a halt or actively regress. So much for the "art of the deal..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-may-2019-month-in-review-stuck.html
Excerpts:
"Is there absolutely anything associated with Trump’s Washington that is not completely stuck, or in reverse? When you consider the two major themes of the month – life in post-Mueller Washington and Trump’s foreign policy initiatives – there is no discernible sign of constructive movement, anywhere...
"The likelihood of significant legislation (e.g., infrastructure, drug prices) moving through Congress is, at this point, laughable. And the global scene is even more disturbing, with backsliding in every area of Trump focus: China, North Korea, Iran and Israel. Everything Trump touches overseas is destabilizing, and the potential consequences of an angry Trump are dire.
"But Mueller not only said nothing new, he indicated that was his last word on the subject – no questions, no congressional testimony, nothing. Another dead end in Washington, and with so much at stake, such a dense report to absorb, so much to clarify, with so little understanding, it is remarkable that Robert Mueller believes that his report is sufficient. Another “no deal” in a dead end town...
"What is going right for Trump? Just one thing: the economy. The latest GDP figures confirmed 3.1% growth in the first quarter, and the economy added 263,000 jobs. Why Trump does not just shut up about everything else and talk up the economy is beyond me..."
BTRTN: Do Dems Dare to Impeach? Nancy, Here's a Plan the Party Can Unite Behind
Born To Run The Numbers offers a plan that navigates the internecine battle between Democrats who want to impeach now, and Nancy Pelosi, who resists impeachment but is unclear about if, when, and why she might change her mind:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-do-dems-dare-to-impeach-nancy.html
Excerpts:
"What is perhaps most unsettling to Democrats who favor impeachment is that Pelosi’s specific game plan is unclear, other than for vague references to allowing the legal processes to play out. Impatient Democrats think that Pelosi is playing into Trump’s hand in a different way. By failing to impeach, she is allowing him to 'play out the clock,' allowing Dem subpoenas to be gummed up in the court system until election day...
"Instead of trying to wound Trump with a thousand needle pricks as dozens of cases work through lower courts, Pelosi should pick a small number of cases that most clearly illustrate 'obstruction of oversight,' and demand an immediate, expedited review by the Supreme Court...
"We’d submit that there are the two cases that are most threatening to Donald Trump: the Congressional demand that the IRS release his taxes to a House committee and the subpoena requiring former White House Counsel Don McGahn to testify in public...
"If Roberts were to tip the court’s rulings in favor of the Congress, Trump would be faced with a momentous choice: does he release his taxes and allow McGahn to testify, or does he raise the stakes even further and openly defy the Supreme Court?"
BTRTN: Do Dems Dare to Impeach? Nancy, Here's a Plan the Party Can Unite Behind
Born To Run The Numbers offers a plan that navigates the internecine battle between Democrats who want to impeach now, and Nancy Pelosi, who resist impeachment but is unclear about if, when, and why she might change her mind:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-do-dems-dare-to-impeach-nancy.html
Excerpts:
"What is perhaps most unsettling to Democrats who favor impeachment is that Pelosi’s specific game plan is unclear, other than for vague references to allowing the legal processes to play out. Impatient Democrats think that Pelosi is playing into Trump’s hand in a different way. By failing to impeach, she is allowing him to 'play out the clock,' allowing Dem subpoenas to be gummed up in the court system until election day...
"Instead of trying to wound Trump with a thousand needle pricks as dozens of cases work through lower courts, Pelosi should pick a small number of cases that most clearly illustrate 'obstruction of oversight,' and demand an immediate, expedited review by the Supreme Court...
"We’d submit that there are the two cases that are most threatening to Donald Trump: the Congressional demand that the IRS release his taxes to a House committee and the subpoena requiring former White House Counsel Don McGahn to testify in public...
"If Roberts were to tip the court’s rulings in favor of the Congress, Trump would be faced with a momentous choice: does he release his taxes and allow McGahn to testify, or does he raise the stakes even further and openly defy the Supreme Court?"
BTRTN 2020 Vision: Joe Biden Enters the Race and Takes Command
Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest monthly quantitative and qualitative synopsis of the 2020 race for the White House. The big news: Joe Biden comes out strong, and has the numbers to show for it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-2020-vision-joe-biden-enters-race.html
Excerpts:"The first few weeks of Joe Biden’s long-awaited 2020 campaign were always going to be utterly crucial to his prospects. Out of the spotlight for some time, would the 76-year-old look too frail or aged to potential voters? Long a poor fundraiser, with neither big-time Wall Street connections nor a small money Main Street online donor network, would he disappoint with his initial numbers? And would he resume his persona as the 'Gaffing Groper' on the campaign trail, master of 20th century retail politics but woefully out of touch with 21st century sensibilities? No, no and no. Joe Biden has passed the early tests of his candidacy – demonstrating vitality, clout and adaptability -- and has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the Democratic sweepstakes, dominating a swelling field that now numbers 23, and may still be growing...
"Unlike any of the other candidates, Biden made it clear he was running against Trump, invoking Charlottesville and ignoring the Democratic field. Suddenly Democrats were reminded that while progressives have been the loudest voices within the party of late, clamoring for change, the dominant voting bloc remains more mainstream centrists...
"Biden’s strong start sets up a far different dynamic than was anticipated. Essentially it is Biden’s nomination until he stumbles, and he will continue to run against Trump until (and unless) he has to address a real challenge. Trump is helping carry Biden’s water considerably, tweeting (or re-tweeting) about Biden in a frenzy after the launch, clearly reflecting of the Trumpian view that Biden is the only real threat he faces..."
BTRTN: Crazy Like Fox... Dems Should Follow Bernie Across the Cable DMZ
Born To Run The Numbers on the Barr, Hannity, and why Bernie Sanders was brilliant to do a town hall on Fox News.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-crazy-like-fox-dems-should-follow.html
Excerpts:
"When Bernie Sanders went on Fox, he ventured across the 38th parallel of cable news and spoke to the isolated and programmed North Hannity-ites on the other side, who finally may have discovered that Democrats were not the 'hate and hysteria' people that Dear Leader claims them to be... Bernie did well. He deftly used humor to defuse tension, and his Fox hosts were stunned by positive reactions among the town hall participants to Bernie’s ideas about government-sponsored healthcare...
"Most important, Bernie Sanders's gamble on Fox helps illuminate an essential truth. The ferocious loyalty of Donald Trump's base is the fuel for his assault on our democracy. As long as he exerts his mind-control over these people, cowardly Republican Senators are terrified of taking Trump on. As long as the base controls those Senators, Trump knows he can't be impeached. If he can't be impeached, he feels emboldened to trample our Constitution and our institutions of government to preserve his power and further cloak his history of illegal activity. By eroding, weakening, and crushing those institutional checks on executive power, Trump is ever more able to limit oversight, obstructing justice in an entirely new way.
"The Democrats should be offering to do ten debates on Fox. Can you imagine what might happen if Democrats had three hours on Fox Prime time once a week? How much they could discuss the realities of what has happened under Donald Trump’s leadership? To point out the lies, the deceits, and the many ways in which Donald Trump’s policies are actually hurting the people who are voting for him?"
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