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molova

molova's Journal
molova's Journal
September 12, 2016

Sunday shows made zero mention of Trump's 9-11 stories

Donald Trump bragged about his building now being the tallest in NYC after the Twin Towers collapsed.
Also, Trump promised to donate $10,000 to the Twin Towers fund via the Trump Foundation, but no record of such donation exists.

There was zero coverage of these news in the Sunday shows, as reported here: http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/09/12/awful-911-trump-stories-sunday-shows-all-ignored-while-remembering-911/212994

September 12, 2016

"JMC Analytics" polling firm is owned by Republican John Couvillon

John Couvillon is described as a "Republican pollster" in this March article:
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432388/closed-contests-pose-test-trump

Couvillon is also trolling the polling world with his "JMC Analytics" firm, which today pretends that Donald Trump is a head of Hillary Clinton by 4% in Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_FL_Sept_2016.pdf

September 11, 2016

When FDR became President, he had been paralyzed for 12 years

Thank God Twitter is a new thing.

In 1921, when he was 39 years of age, Franklin Delano Roosevelt contracted an illness characterized by: fever; protracted symmetric, ascending paralysis; facial paralysis; bladder and bowel dysfunction; numbness; and dysaesthesia. The symptoms gradually resolved except for paralysis of the lower extremities. The diagnosis at the onset of the illness and thereafter was paralytic poliomyelitis. Yet his age and many features of the illness are more consistent with a diagnosis of Guillain-Barré syndrome, an autoimmune polyneuritis. The likelihoods (posterior probabilities) of poliomyelitis and Guillain-Barré syndrome were investigated by Bayesian analysis. Posterior probabilities were calculated by multiplying the prior probability (disease incidence in Roosevelt's age group) by the symptom probability (likelihood of a symptom occurring in a disease). Six of eight posterior probabilities strongly favoured Guillain-Barré syndrome.


http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14562158
September 11, 2016

If Hillary's poll numbers go up after the fainting incident..

the deplorables will claim she made it all up.

In fact, I find it likely that her numbers will go up, unless Trump's fans are classy in response to the fainting, which I find very unlikely.

September 11, 2016

Wasn't FDR on a wheelchair while he kicked ass in the 30's?

Speaking of health issues.

September 11, 2016

NBC/Marist underestimated Obama's vote in 2012 in NH and Nevada

Caution when reading a recent NBC/Marist poll claiming that Trump is at striking distance of Hillary.
However close it may be, the closeness may be off by 3% or 4%, judging by NBC/Marist's tendency to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012.

In Nevada, the last pre-election NBC/Marist poll had Obama ahead by 3%. He won by 6.7%
In New Hampshire, they had Obama up by 2%. He won by 5.6%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

September 11, 2016

Why do news outlets link to RCP average instead of HuffPo?

What is it about the RealClearPolitics aggregator that makes it more accurate than the Huffington Post?
In fact, there's reason to believe it is the latter which is the most accurate, as it does not include junk polls (or at least keeps them in check).

Every "Hillary is nervous" type of article refers to the RCP average (which is lower than the HuffPo average).

What's up with that? It is also worth noting that RCP is owned by a Republican.

September 11, 2016

Paul Krugman suggests AP has an anti-Clinton agenda

Following the Associated Press' false tweet that Hillary called all Trump supporters members of a "basket of deplorables" (as opposed to half), Paul Krugman has begun to suspect they have an anti-Clinton agenda, especially since they recently lied about the proportion of Clinton Foundation donors who visited Clinton at the State Department.

Krugman: "Something definitely wrong at the AP. Doing it *again* after the Clinton Fn disaster suggests someone with agenda"

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/774691956463206400

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