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Member since: Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:02 PM
Number of posts: 543

Journal Archives

New Marist polls of Nevada and New Hampshire will released at 5pm today

Here are the results that will make me happy, at a minimum:
Clinton +4 in Nevada.
Clinton +6 in New Hampshire

I predict a polling error worse than Brexit on November 8th

Due to the significant number of crappy pollsters, Republican pollsters, and lack of money to call a sufficient number of cell phones, I predict the polling industry will continue to fail, worse than they did in Brexit. I expect Clinton 's lead to be highly understated by the final polls.

Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton +3 in FL

This is the third poll of Florida today, and the second to show Clinton ahead by 3%.
Conducted October 21-23.


Let's see if the media reports on all three or just the one they like.

American vigilante hacker sends Russia a warning

Source: CNN

An American vigilante hacker -- who calls himself "The Jester" -- has defaced the website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in retaliation for attacks on American targets.

On Friday night, the Jester gained access to the Russian government ministry's website. And he left a message: Stop attacking Americans.

"Comrades! We interrupt regular scheduled Russian Foreign Affairs Website programming to bring you the following important message," he wrote. "Knock it off. You may be able to push around nations around you, but this is America. Nobody is impressed."

Read more: http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/22/technology/russian-foreign-ministry-hacked/index.html


If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades

I'd like to request that when the 2018 midterm or 2020 Presidential elections approach, anyone who posts a "This-poll-is-great-because-Nate-Silver-gave-it-a-good-grade" type of thread or post will be ignored by me, if it turns out that IBD/TIPP (A- rated by Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com) either picked Trump to win or got the margin wrong by 5+ or more.

Some people pretend that 538's grading system has somehow been empirically tested or correlated to election accuracy.

Thanks in advance.

Donald Trump once claimed a woman groped him without consent

From today's Washington Post, a passage from Donald Trump's 1997 book "The Art of the Comeback":

“I was seated next to a lady of great social pedigree and wealth,” he wrote in 1997. “Her husband was sitting on the other side of the table, and we were having a very nice but extremely straight conversation. All of a sudden I felt her hand on my knee, then on my leg. She started petting me in all different ways.

On the dance floor later that evening, the woman tried again. “Look, we have a problem,” Trump told her, pointing out that his wife was also present. “Donald, I don’t care. I just don’t care,” the woman replied, according to his account. “I have to have you, and I have to have you now.”

In his book “The Art of the Comeback,” Trump writes that this sort of thing was just the price of being the Donald. “The level of aggression was unbelievable,” he remarked. “This is not infrequent, it happens all the time.”"

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/10/20/the-time-donald-trump-got-groped/

David Duke calls Julian Assange a hero

Former Imperial Wizard of the KKK David Duke tweeted the following this afternoon:


New Georgia poll (OpinionSavvy-Fox5): 73% landline, 27% cell phone

This breakdown allowed Fox to produce a result of Trump +4.
Cell phone-only users are way more than 27% therefore this poll is junk. http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-GA-General-10.20.16.pdf

For instance, Pew this year announced that it would begin using a 75% cell - 25% landline ration: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/05/pew-research-center-will-call-75-cellphones-for-surveys-in-2016/

SurveyUSA conducts NC poll where 71% of respondents were landline users

And Hillary still came out ahead by 2%.

October 14-16

*Remember, not including cell phones resulted in SurveyUSA underestimating Sanders' support in California, where SurveyUSA's final poll had Clinton ahead by 18%. She won by 7%.

The most progressive candidate in a match-up is hurt by absence of cell phones.

Hundreds fill NAU hall to hear Bernie Sanders rally for Hillary Clinton

Source: The Arizona Republic

Hundreds of students and Democratic voters packed a Northern Arizona University auditorium on Tuesday to hear Bernie Sanders make a final pitch for his former rival, Hillary Clinton.

The mostly young crowd hooped and hollered as they awaited the U.S. senator from Vermont's arrival here as pop music blared. As the seats filled, dozens lined the walls in single file, posting selfies on social media, talking to friends, and reading books.

Sanders is scheduled to rally here at 2:30 p.m. to an at-capacity crowd of about 900 at the Prochnow Auditorium, and later, in Tucson.

Chelsea Clinton and first lady Michelle Obama will also stump for Clinton in Arizona this week and the Clinton campaign is pouring millions of dollars into the race as polls suggest the Democratic nominee is positioned to win the state against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/18/bernie-sanders-arizona-clinton-rally-democrats-nau/92371822/

While Wikileaks tried to make Bernie mad, he gets more and more into Hillary.
I love Bernie.
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